저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년은 금리 인하 기대와 ISM PMI 바닥, 설비투자 회복으로 주식에 좋은 해이나 상반기는 Fed 첫 인하 불확실성으로 조정 가능. 침체 확률은 약 20% 이하로 낮게 봄. 인플레이션은 기대치 복귀로 하향 추세이며 장기금리가 Fed보다 중요. 비트코인은 12개월 내 15만 달러, 5년 내 50만 달러 가능 전망.
다듬은 글
You also came here and made a great prediction about some upcoming inflation figures and their impact on the S&P. What is your...what do you consider to be your area of expertise right now in terms of stock market forecasting? Do you work with one-week deadlines? Do you work with one-day deadlines?
You...you work with those options that expire in, like, 8 hours? Do you do this, or can we wait 6 months and 1 year? What would you prefer to do today? I prefer to keep it for 6 months to 1 year, Joe. Okay. Tell me what's going to happen then. Well, I think 2024 will ultimately be a good year for stocks because we have a Fed that is no longer waging a war against inflation , and we know that the ISM manufacturing PMIs are bottoming out , and that's correlated with the start of earnings acceleration.
And we know there's pent-up capital spending, you know, investments have been held back in recent years, so this accelerates, which is good for profits, and we expect mortgage rates to fall, which would be good for consumers. Therefore, it will indeed be a good year for stocks, but with the caveat that the first 6 months will likely be a bit more challenging because, during those months, investors will be somewhat impatient or anxious about the first Fed rate cut, and this uncertainty will weigh on stocks; And at the same time, it will cause those who are apprehensive to fear inflation again.
So, I think it will be a good year overall, but most of the gains will come in the second half of the year. Yes, this is a simple case of consolidating some of the excessive gains we saw at the end of last year. Yes, and as we all know, whenever we have a parabolic movement, and the movement from October to December was basically parabolic, it needs to consolidate.
In fact, you might even have to back off a bit. So, I would n't be surprised if the market fell, you know, by up to 5% by March, but that will ultimately be a pullback that you 'll want to take advantage of to buy, because, I mean, we won't have a hard landing. I mean, the only risk to our outlook would be if we had a recession.
So, that would be the risk, which you estimate to be 20%? 30%? What, what, what is the risk of recession in your view? I mean, I think it's low. I mean, in a typical year, the probability of a recession is 20%. Hmm, I think it's probably around 20%. Maybe even less, because I think what investors have priced in is more than a 20% recession.
As you know, there are still many skeptics who think that the only way a Fed cycle ends is with a recession, so many believe we will have one this year because of the yield curve. I think these forecasts have been costly for investors because people are being too cautious, but yes, I think the odds of a recession are low .
We don't have, companies don't have, the revenue boost from price increases, or probably won't have it anymore. So, I don't... what's your profit outlook for earnings in 2024? Is that 10% in the S&P? Yes, well, pricing power instead of inflation driven by greed. I mean, only a handful of companies actually did that.
Many of them were companies that produced consumer goods and basic items, and these are the ones that have been suffering recently. You know, the demand for housing is one of the stories that will emerge, because as soon as we have lower interest rates, the demand for housing will improve. Therefore, you see, there is a huge multiplier effect on GDP coming from real estate activity.
So I think we'll see the cyclical part of the economy really react. Tom, are you predicting at this point that we'll be disappointed with the sheer number of interest rate cuts the Fed will make next year, and that it's okay if we don't get whatever the market is expecting, like six or seven? Is this...is this acceptable?
And if we succeed, what does that say about the economy? I know that's the debate, Joe, with investors, and for me the number of cuts won't be as important as the bond market's reaction to the inflation trend this year. And, you know, we think inflation is still on a downward trajectory that's well below consensus.
So I think we'll get closer to the goal before the end of the year , before the end of 2024. Maybe, you know, this December might be a little more turbulent than expected. But if this is indeed the path taken, with weaker inflation, I think interest rates, especially long- term rates, will fall more than expected.
So it will be less about how many cuts the Fed will make, and more about whether the Fed also recognizes this. So, for me, stocks will follow the signal from the bond market more than what the Fed actually does. Do n't you think the final stage will be a problem because of salary gains or something like that?
Do you think we'll get there...that the Fed will reach 2%? People say we'll never get back to 2%. Don't you think this is the new normal? Do you think we'll ever go back to where we were after so , so long? There is nothing structurally in place right now. Were they all disruptions in the supply chain?
You know, probably the best clue to this is the fact that we just received the consumer inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey earlier this week, and inflation expectations have returned to pre-pandemic levels. So, if consumers don't expect inflation to accelerate again, then housing and cars, which essentially accounted for 86% of the change in inflation...
If they are normalizing , and housing doesn't need to be negative, it only needs to grow at 3%. And as you know, used car prices can drop, you know, by as much as 30% in the next 12 months. Uh, you don't really have much behind inflation. So, uh, I'd be surprised. So, it was temporary. Yes, that's what you're saying.
Yes, that's what you're saying. It was transient all the time. It was, it wasn't, it was, it is, it wasn't. Well... So, now we've decided that we're going back to that. Okay , so just to wrap things up, give me your, um, your 1- and 5-year price target for Bitcoin. Uh, I think in the next 12 months, uh, something above 100,000.
You know, maybe 150,000. And you know, in the next 5 years, again, it's, you know, there's a finite supply, but now we have a potentially huge increase in demand with the approval of Bitcoin on the spot market. So , I think that in 5 years, you know, something around half a million would potentially be achievable.
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