Big rate cuts by the Fed might mean 'a real slowdown and recession', warns Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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연준 금리인하 기대(선물 기준 약 4~5.5회)는 과대평가되어 있고 Dot Plot(3회)과 큰 차이가 없다. 금리 인하가 대규모로 이뤄진다면 경기 둔화·침체 신호일 수 있어 주식시장에 반드시 긍정적이지 않다. 2024년 기업 이익은 양호할 것으로 보며, 임금상승(4.1%)은 생산성 성장(2.5%)으로 상쇄되어 인플레이션 우려는 낮다. 원자재 시장은 안정적이며 유가만 홍해 영향으로 상승했다. 장기적으로 낙관적이나 2024년 상승폭은 2023년보다 작을 것으로 본다.

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01. major averages coming off their first negative week in the last 10 and joining us right now to talk about why the rally stalled is Jeremy seagull he's professor ameritus of Finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business um Professor seagull what do you think is the first week of this year a pre uh precursor of what to expect the rest of the year uh no not necessarily I mean remember the huge runup at the end of last year a little bit of profit taking you don't want to take your capital gains in December to pay in 20 23 rather take them in 2024 I I'm still bullish here uh in in uh 2024 I don't think we're going to have the rise that we had in 2023 but I don't think there's as much difference a lot of people are talking about the the difference between fed funds Futures and what the Dot Plot is um you know Wall Street has all these calculations from the FED funds Futures uh thinking that those are the expectations of the market well we in finance know that actually they are downward uh biased numbers um uh in other words it looks like there are six Cuts By the way as a result of the rise in interest rates there's now five and a half Cuts buil built in but about one and a half of those cuts is really what's called risk hedging and that is you want to buy those contracts something terrible happens geopolitical risk pandemic Financial collapse they will go way up so they offset the risk on other assets so as a result people buy them I estimate that there's really only about four cuts that are built in to the FED funds Futures and we know the Dot Plot said three so really there isn't that much of a difference between the two right now and secondly and this is important you know it's not so much we need those cuts it's that Powell said if there's going to be some Slowdown I'm ready to cut that willingness to cut is more important than having the cuts um and I think we're not going to be as stubborn on the way down as we were uh in retrospect on the way up and I think that that's the flexibility you know honestly I would love the economy to keep on chugging along and for them you know if it chugs along at at 5% fed funds that's not bad for stocks so I think there's I think those two things if you if combine them not much of a difference not all that bad about if we don't have Cuts in March or may I think that uh profits are going to be good in 2024 that is a very rational approach because I I keep getting the feeling that people think oh rate cuts are a great thing that's going to save us but if the fed's cutting rates it means the economy is dropping and maybe that negates the whole thing your idea that it doesn't matter if you get rate Cuts or not because if we don't get rate cuts it means the economy is really strong that makes a ton of sense why don't more people talk about that well I think that that's one reason why the I don't think the market is you know is as worried about it as others about when they will cut I mean uh you know another thing that is bad is that they don't cut rate because inflation flares up again I don't see any sign of that and by the way I do think they're going to cut rates because I think inflation is really going to slow down and that's a real positive for the market going forward so I think that they should actually cut rates because slow down of inflation with the same rate does Pinch the economy more that's been brought up by you know all of you uh uh and Wall Street also so I think we are going to have rate Cuts but one has to realize big rate Cuts might mean a real slowdown in recession well the stock market doesn't want that so I don't think we should get as hung up about exactly the pace of rate Cuts as so many people are in looking at the market in 2024 uh in terms of of what you expect from maybe just CPI if you think inflation is not going up we've got CPI read later this week if it's hotter than anticipated will that cause you to change your mind or you think you you wouldn't look at any one number and and re too much into it and and truthfully for instance like uh people were worried about that wage increase that we saw on Friday and and one has to remember there's a big wedge between wages and inflation that's called productivity and prod activity has been fantastic last year 2 and a half% that was the the the most uh in many many years excluding the uh the pandemic year and what that means if we have 4.1% wages and a two and a half percent uh productivity growth that's under 2% inflation so I was not worried about that wage you're right we're going to have CPI and PPI at the end of the year remember the fed and and the BLS still doesn't get sheltered right we've we've talked about that so many times so you have to take out an awful lot of things but take a look at the sensitive commodity markets uh oil's gone up a bit because of the Red Sea but outside of that we see nothing really going up and it's those sensitive markets that are early indicators in my opinion of inflation and that's why I remain calm about that