저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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2016년 3월 1일 예산 발표 후 시장 분석 방송. 결론: 예산은 시장 하락의 주원인이 아니며, 하락은 글로벌 경기둔화와 외국인 자금 유출(risk-off)이 원인이라는 진단. 시장 상황: 센섹스·니프티 하락 마감, 니프티 장중 52주 신저가 경신. 은행 지수가 하락 방어. 인포시스 하락이 지수 하락의 약 50% 기여. 마루티 약 5%, 타이탄 등 급락. 아시아·유럽 증시도 약세. 예산 평가: 장기 자본이득세·서비스세 등 루머와 달리 큰 충격 없음, 재정 규율 양호. 다만 배당에 대한 삼중과세(법인 단계, DDT, 개인 1000만 루피 초과분 과세)는 부정적. 배당이 많은 기업 경영진·프로모터의 배당 확대 유인이 줄어 소액주주에게 불리하나 뮤추얼펀드에는 영향이 제한적. 금리: RBI 금리인하 가능성 제기(24~36시간 내 가능성 언급). 인하는 재정 건전성과 함께 공공은행 자본 확충 수단이 된다고 평가. 과거 금리 인하 때 시장 고점이 되었던 위험은 있으나 이번엔 기회로 봄. 종목 전략: 주택금융사는 이미 잘 나가고 있어 보유 또는 비중 확대 가능. 그 외 종목 재배분 필요성은 낮음. 자동차 간접세 인상은 마루티 등 자동차주에 1~4% 비용 부담이나 마루티는 1.5% 수준 영향 예상, 수요 타격은 크지 않을 것으로 봄. 전망: 예산은 하루~이틀짜리 이벤트이며 이후 글로벌 경기둔화와 외국인 매도가 시장의 핵심 변수. 1월 글로벌 주식형 펀드 자금 유출이 대규모였고 반전에는 시간이 필요하다고 봄. 삼중 배당과세는 자본시장 자금 유입 시점에 불리한 타이밍.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to this special show markets 360° well we have a union budget that saw the markets whips saww about 800 points on the sensex and almost 400 points on the Nifty as well at the end of the day the sensex and the Nifty have ended lower and the Nifty actually made fresh intraday 52 we lows and by a whisker avoided an in uh closing low on a 52 we basis uh the bank Nifty was the Saving Grace of the day uh well that's uh the budget the much awaited budget that's come and Gone without harming the markets too much but not helping them too much hi an Hi l you know the the Nifty moved in 270 Point band but the bank Nifty moved in 800 Point band and as you said the bank Nifty was a saving rce but I tell you something you know this is the point we made towards market closing as well the market did make a 52 we low intraday uh it recovered some of the the loss ground but that recovery was sold into in late trade I think that that's something that the Traders would latch on to also L you know what are we talking about on budget day 50% of losses were on account of infosis I mean one stock which gets absolutely you know impct no impact on because of budget that stock provided 50% of your market Fall is telling you something also you know keep an eye on what happened to cash Market volume that sured to 25,000 CR and look at the way fi favorite names fell into trade led by maruti that was down about 5% New 52 we low for that one onc was down 11% nearly a 52 we low and broader Market you know stocks like Irvin Titan the way some of these stocks were collapsing it's telling you one thing loud and clear this is a bare Market which won't go away with just one budget because this is a global bear and in fact while we were trading uh Asian markets were already down 1 to 2% Europe was down almost 2% and that's clearly going to be the again the central theme tomorrow onwards you're not to talk about budget tomorrow maybe the day after you normally see some impact but Wednesday onwards budget would be history you'll talk about global cues and you will talk about fi outflows which still looks like quite large in this market well I think you're being kind by saying that it's a 48 hour budget I would think it's a little less than that maybe an hour tomorrow to get adjusted to the fine print that we may have missed out uh because the website wouldn't open and was not refreshed in time but otherwise uh this cannot change the hard reality of the global markets which is that the global economy is slowing down if not Contracting in large parts and secondly that risk is off the table for the moment and we cannot be outliers for both these Global Trends we are sufficiently globalized both economically and definitely market-wise that's the reality we have to contend with so fresh 52 we lows certainly cannot be avoided uh is what the risk markets are telling us now but we have someone who is much better better placed to analyze both the fine print of the markets and the bold print that's coming across the seas from Global markets Ram Agarwal The Joint managing director oal is with us and of course our two uh chart experts will also be joining us in a minute MAA samant of fidelity worldwide will also be joining us in just a minute let me start with you ram first uh uh well uh budgets come and gone everything analyzed you think it can't change the reality of uh the be grip on the markets or the slowdown in the economy yes I mean uh what you said is right I mean there maybe 48 Hours budget or 24 hours budget but I think this huge event is behind us that itself is a big relief and some of the Draconian rumors which are around that uh long-term capital gain tax will be uh you know I there was all kinds of rumor about long-term capital gain tax the rumor about the service tax I mean uh nothing came and actually the fiscal Prudence or discipline is absolutely on the dot so those things are pretty good and uh the only the only thing I found uh big negative was the Triple Tax on dividend and uh since we are coming from the market probably it is more more intense for us than anybody else uh the intent was right they wanted to text the super rich and uh Splash on the uh rural economy So to that extent it's fine but uh doing a triple taxation on dividend uh 33% at a corporate level 20 and half% at a uh DDT level and then further 11 half% now at individual level if you are getting more than 10 lakhs I think this is not good and this is not good for the minary shers let me tell you because what will happen is that the managements I mean who who pays more than a CR rupes dividend all the management why will they increase the divident yes and yeah the promoters will not increase the dividend and if don't increase the dividend I think mon will not get only mhm but mutual funds won't be impacted right yeah Mell fund won't be impacted if they get the div okay okay that point has taken Ram but you know let's talk about the positives because clearly there's room for RBI to act now and our sources believe that it could be as early as 24 to 36 hours now with the governor with the FM sticking to the the fiscal part uh do you think this time the rate change or rate cut could be a game changer or like last time you know it actually marked the the markets Peak is that still a risk for our Market it's not the risk but it's an opportunity in the sense that uh now the r rate cut is not only coming for fiscal Prudence but also recapitalize the banks I mean this will be one of the major sources of capital for the for the public sector Banks which are looking for Capital from all possible sources so clearly there is a game plan uh with RBI and Government after giving 25,000 crores RBI has to put up rest of it either from their own balance sheet or by reducing the uh rates and increasing the bond prices and profits on that so clearly we are going to see some more action from the monetary front uh coming from the RBI uh yeah nice T of four I must say but Ram will that make you buy any uh uh stocks that are dependent on cheaper money say lower Emi kind of stocks uh nbfc stocks anything that makes you incrementally positive on any stock no nothing there is none I mean whatever we thinking like uh say Housing Finance housing compan finance companies are doing well already the there was enough T wi and now I think further imper has been given in terms of uh lowcost housing being given all sorts of benefit 50,000 50,000 rupes per for uh SS's forther benefit on buying a up to 50 lakhs house so all these things will help the housing finance companies which in any case we doing very well so I would uh stay on or maybe increase the location in the Housing Finance company but apart from that I don't see anywhere any particularly any reason for uh us to see reallocate any of the stocks okay uh RAM what do you make of this additional duty on you know Vehicles cars because uh you know one of your largest Holdings is maruti and we saw quite a bit of damage in stocks today in the auto space yes yeah so clearly it's a damp in the sense that 1 to 4% but Mari hopefully will be closer to 1 1 half% rather than uh 4% because their mix is more on this side so uh but uh it's a it's for everybody it's not for the company it's for the entire uh entire uh sector so clearly uh the kind of uh raw meterial benefits they had uh and uh cost reductions they had so this will go as a uh kind of a cost increase for them and they'll pass it on if they can pass it on to the marketplace so I don't see particularly for maruti or anybody it's a big damp now if demand does it hurt the I mean at 1 half% increase in the price does it hurt the demand allog together I don't think it's that that big a negative it's not a positive but not a big negative okay the question then you know even as we speak today the biggest decline came because of infosis not because of budget so the global cues are still hurting right now I mean do you expect this kind of pain to continue because of the global cues and budget just being a sid show yeah clearly budget is a side show I mean as you said day after tomorrow nobody bothers about the budget but uh I believe uh in the month of January it was one of the largest redemptions all over the world in terms of equity mutual funds outflow could there be a very immediate reversal of that Trend I don't think so I mean it takes time to for this kind of trend to reverse so clearly we are into slow down in the global economy and more perly slow down from the FI side so in fact this triple taxing dividend is particularly most inopportune because this is the time when we needed boost to the Indian investing into the capital market and we have got a uh clearly uh dampner out here so uh you know the FI selling is on so uh I don't see any reason for anybody to be worly bullish because of this budget all right we leave it at that it's clearly the stock markets are reflecting your mood as well Ram agrawal thank you very much for joining us uh our chart readers uh Sudan and Ashwini have through the day told us that uh
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