저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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한줄결론: 펀드 성과는 부진했지만 스타일은 유지하며, 한국 등 시장 구조 변화(개인 투자자 유입)로 주식시장은 장기적으로 강세가 될 것이라는 낙관론이다. 성과와 스타일: 초기 4년간 월 1.5~2% 수준의 성과를 냈으나 최근 2~3년은 시장을 하회했다. QGLP(고품질·성장·가격) 스타일과 집중 포트폴리오(상위 종목 비중 큼) 원칙은 변하지 않았다고 강조했다. 과거 실패 사례: 1992년 은행주 집중 투자로 67% 손실을 본 사례, 보험 섹터 대량 투자가 부진했던 사례, 자동차·은행 금융 아이디어가 기대에 못 미쳤던 점을 언급했다. 시장 구조 변화: 최근 18개월간 중소형주 랠리는 전례 없던 현상이며 시장 구조가 바뀌었다고 진단했다. 약 8천만 명의 신규 투자자가 유입됐고, 향후 3년간 나머지 인구가 추가로 유입될 것으로 기대했다. 금리 환경: 고정수익 금리가 7~9%에서 4~5% 수준으로 하락해 주식시장으로 자금이 이동하고 있다고 봤다. 전망: 향후 2년 내 시장 구조 변화가 더 진행될 것이며, 인도 등 신흥국 투자 기회를 강조했다. ABB, Siemens, L&T 등 설비투자(capex) 회복 수혜주를 편입했다고 밝혔다. 리스크와 한계: 단기 성과 예측은 어렵다고 인정했고, 포트폴리오 모니터링 강도가 오히려 문제가 될 수 있다고 언급했다. 2022년이 좋은 해가 되길 희망한다고 말했다. 한국 종목·자산 관련 구체 발언: 자막상 삼성전자, 금, 비트코인 등 대상 자산에 대한 직접 가격 방향 언급은 없음.
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it's a very difficult uh time but actually very nice initially i was thinking why achilles you know talking at the time you know when things are not looking good or things are not that gone well and it's still you are making face a client but i think i'm so happy that uh this thing is organized and uh you know i have seen investing uh and let me just speak i mean data you have seen enough of it and i think let me just speak uh example from uh what my thought processes are and uh how i think see one of the thing is that this performance when performance is something on which we i don't have any controller and nobody has any control you do things which is right uh write selection of stocks and write a location in the portfolio and i mean that and as an active manager finally the you are supposed to be beating the market you are supposed to be in the market now uh we manage the money the way uh you know you manage it for yourself that's how we manage the money and uh actually right from beginning we were extremely active manager very active manager and first four years the same style uh worked wonderfully well i mean it works so well i'm telling you honestly uh i used to ask one or two ifas i mean how come i mean are we that great a magician that you can have one and a half two percent per month or performance so uh i thought it is a magic of qglp or so it was magic of a style that time that style suited in the backdrop of the market i mean that's the only explanation i can give because the style still remains same i mean managers obviously unfortunately have changed for different reasons but style is no change it is the same promise of a very focused portfolio high quality names very chunky allocations and actually initially i mean i mean all these data were always available and somebody was doing the calculations earlier but i was never looking at you know how much is the active portion what is the passive question what is there in the index and so because i was focused on completely what we have in the profile what is the uh what every individual company is supposed to do and i used to even today we appraise it you know on a descending order of allocation and 10 was the max we were doing and then you have uh five six companies which are uh seven eight ten percent and restaurant will be two three percent that's how the portfolio will build that was our style even today that is the style so we have stuck to this time and uh when we look back we can always say that yes it went wrong like uh we did one of the largest allocations in insurance and uh the poet hit that sector the worst so you know those kind of things when you look back i mean i remember in 92 uh post herself mega my portfolio was built up of only bank companies in fact finally i found that banks were the cheapest 92 and where was the scam happened only in banks so i had a 67 percent correction in my portfolio from 30 crores it became 10 crores and all of that 30 crores at least 20 22 crores were only banks so uh so you know these kind of things happen in the portfolio and these are not i mean looking back we can say why couldn't we see this is coming but uh i mean you know a lot of things we cannot see like uh what has happened in 18 months the mid cap on the roaring mid and small cab rally unprecedented rally i mean promoters themselves don't believe that these things have happened and that has happened because the structure of the market has changed uh the structure of the market has changed and uh so if you are not and we are not the guys who have high chart the saying that okay wind is uh uh changing this side even if you say uh we have not been able to change i mean when i look back 18 months i think structure the market has complete change and it will change even more so in next two years when the retail will be fully onboarded in the sense that right now 80 million people have come in last 18 months 40 million people have come half the market is brand new and other half is gonna come in next to three years that's my expectation so i'm very bullish on the onboarding of the the whole nation participating in the stock market and the reason is also uh the uh the collapse of the fixed income where the yield has come down from seven eight percent nine percent to more like four five percent so clearly even the hmis uh the the game has become much bigger for them also so not only the hnis work the bulk of the wealth they are putting in more iniquities but also the completely new set of people are coming and putting their smaller small saving buckets into the market so the equity has equity has become much bigger game and uh we'll stick to the style we'll stick to the style and you know what happens is what i've seen i mean i'm getting reconciled to this it doesn't make me happy to uh to see the performance the way it has shaped up in last two three years but what happens is that sometimes you are on top of the market and always you cannot be on top of the market sometimes market is on top of it so first four years we were on top of the market hugely on top of the market for last two three years i would say market is on top of us so yes manager and environment changes uh and uh a portfolio changes happen and uh since we are doing a very you know kind of uh uh we are sticking to our style the way we pick up stocks qglp processes you know high quality business management everything i mean i understand the investor has to see has to see the uh i mean measure the performance only in terms of outperformance and performance so i'm not saying they're wrong the clearly performance has not been up to the mark let's accept that and that allows us to rework you know how exactly we how exactly we see that scenarios in the future and what other changes do we make many times what happens is that you also become you also become lucky or unlucky you know as i said i mean we had a massive call on insurance and uh when i look back it looks at that kind of active ratio from 2 to 9 11 that has not worked for us what i'm saying is we have not bought bad stocks we've not lost money or anything like that and uh in the long run these things they even know i only hope that two years henceforth or three years since we will meet we should be on top of the market i mean that can only be hope and uh and i will say that is the best best uh best talent we have with us i mean he's there for 10 12 15 years i learned a lot of things from him uh he's intellectually mostly stimulating he's the most experienced uh and particularly for a large fund you need a senior guy so we work together and so so i i think we put best foot forward style remains same broadly and uh whatever little changes need to be made and it needs to be made that of course will be made i mean then you'll see the stamp of fund manager and uh individuality of the fund manager but broadly it remains a very focused portfolio it uh it is still bets uh i mean i think uh last ice hours active ratio was 64 now i mean it used to be seventy seventy five percent also we never looked at activation after the under performance we started looking at all this data that uh how much is the active issue maybe when we performed activation ninety percent eighty five percent but when you are performing even if somebody tells you don't bother about it but today the uh what was the biggest source of out performance uh has become the biggest curse and in the portfolio so i think these things do happen and same thing doesn't keep working in the market so long as you're buying the right stock uh at the right price uh i think that's all you hope for the best so i'm i'm very clear that uh uh for a period of time the compounding will work out very well uh i mean and wherever we have underperformed we should stay there and we should not run away because uh you know today it looks unnerving to see the performance but that's where the patience is required i mean like he showed that subject of uh global you know when we bought it we bought it for uh we bought it for i mean i remember only market cap we said we bought it for two and a half thousand three thousand market it went to fifteen thousand crores in just two years time but so we we took the benefit of 5x and we recovered whatever we had invested 300 whatever put we got it out but uh but the correction from 15000 to 8000 that becomes you know part of the problem for the spirit and when the misery comes it comes all together you know says that uh when things don't work out a lot of these things come together and uh gives that uh uh i mean i think ira was 70 percent what more you want from a stock if you look at from till date what is 70 and i think it is the most wonderful stock and it is going to do well but uh but uh i mean technically speaking we should have sold it right at the top and we should be thinking of buying now rather than you know holding through the counter you have to go through out performance as well as some amount of under performance for the stock to be there because we don't know which quarter it will again uh flare up so these things do happen and uh portfolio is very healthy i mean i'm absolutely on top of probably this is the only portfolio on which it stays in my head and i literally talked to uh siddharth on a daily basis our direct devices so uh so i think it is all about the style and uh we need to give it more patience and that's how i think that things will work out fine and maybe i mean even if by chance uh we double the money in next five years the index was a little more then also the world has not come to an end i would say you know and uh and you know the collective actions were taken the ideas which we have put some of the ideas which are not work like insurance has not worked our automotive has not worked or even banking finances are not work so these are the main sectors from where we have put the active ratios and i'm sure these uh these sectors because if the bankings have financial services don't work i where is the india story there i mean i i can't believe that india history will happen without this segment not working and we have the biggest of the banks they're all value migrating ideas all of them whether it is icsa bank hdfc bank agency kodak bank your uh you know all the newer insurance companies i mean these are six seven ideas which we have put so i think they will assert until when they'll assert they'll be so very that will not uh will not believe that these things are working but right now i don't have right to say that that it will because to make any promises in this market in terms of particularly in terms of underperformance or performance would not be right for me to say anything but i'm pretty confident that this portfolio will do well and we'll keep allocating as much as we can because there are a lot of other products priority and other funds that we keep allocating but we put 100 percent of our net worth as well as the company's own savings within the mutual fund products of the company mutual fund and productivity of the company uh and the flows could be different at different point of time uh so so our confidence in the product the manager in the future of it is uh completely supreme and uh and let's let's let's see i mean uh what needs to be done further and how our current uh what you call a stock portfolio where we have built uh works and when we come on top of the market i mean i would say i can't say i mean actually prediction is very bad in okay but not great in terms of performance he said around there i'll i'll i'll bet your house will be the best house in the long term i mean i don't know from where he's saying what is his analytics for which is saying but i must say predicting the performances is becoming very difficult and but i remain bullish in the market i think structural change is happening it is time for india i think this is the best possible time i have seen i have been always been bullish but this is the point of time when uh people should be allocated in equities whether f-35 or whatever and we will we will we will have very aggressive positioning for upcoming uh upturn so much so that uh siddharth has put in abb siemens lnt all you know for the recovery and capex so uh i mean everything we have tried to you can you can uh you can uh you can speak to siddharth and even to me also if there's anything specific which we might be missing here i mean past has passed i mean i cannot repair it and we have done uh whatever we have managed to manage same religions which has been there since 14 and even uh actually the intensity of portfolio monitoring is so much higher today so much higher for last two three years that probably that itself might become a problem you know so we have to be very careful how much we take care at the end of it it is about the process about the style and that style remains probably same and hope that 22 is a great 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