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이 영상은 2016년 워런 버핏의 주주총회·인터뷰 발언을 엮은 편집 영상으로, 핵심 메시지는 '생산성 있는 자산(사업·농지)이 비생산 자산(금·예술품)보다 장기적으로 낫고, 확정금리 자산은 피하라'는 것이다. [투자 철학] 버핏은 사업 가치를 먼저 평가하고 주가는 나중에 본다고 설명한다. 페트로차이나를 약 1000억 달러 가치로 보고 매수했으며, 이후 시가총액이 크게 올라 매도했다고 회고한다. [금과 농지 비교] 1900년 이후 금은 20달러에서 1100달러 수준, 다우지수는 약 66달러에서 크게 올랐고 배당까지 더해 장기 수익이 압도적이었다고 말한다. 농지는 매년 수익을 내며 100년 뒤에도 땅이 남는다는 논리다. [금 가치 비유] 전 세계 금을 모으면 약 67피트 정액체로 약 7조 달러인데, 이는 미국 주식 가치의 약 1/3이고 같은 돈으로 미국 농지 대부분과 엑손모빌 7개를 살 수 있다고 비교한다. [채권·달러] 단기·장기 확정금리 채권을 선호하지 않으며, 5~10년 관점에서는 보통주가 확정금리 투자보다 낫다고 본다. 달러는 장기적으로 가치가 떨어지는 구조라 저축이 손해라는 주장도 포함된다. [투자 원칙] 상품(원자재)은 타인이 더 비싸게 살 것을 기대하는 투기이며, 사업이나 농지처럼 스스로 현금흐름을 만드는 자산이 투자라는 구분을 강조한다. 주가가 매일 바뀌어도 사업 성과를 보면 된다는 관점이다. [출연자 전망] 금 가격 상승(당시 온스당 약 1434달러)에 대한 헤지펀드 매수 흐름에 대해 버핏은 가격 방향은 모른다고 답했다. 방향 예측은 없다. [리스크·조건] 영상 내 발언은 2016년 기준 과거 관점이며, 특정 종목·자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
if you take a look at this 40-year run on the dollar the dollar is designed economically to lose money every single year so why would you save something that loses money every year and what this means with somebody on retirement plans is that after you retire your the value of your dollar goes down and your cost of living keeps going up to my rich dad that was bad advice and made no sense we sold it from 160 to 200 or something like that a nice tidy profit yeah we made we made about three and a half billion dollars on a 500 million dollar investment as it turned out i still sold it way too soon since i sold it they must have shot a gun off and said my warrant sold now it's time to let it go up yeah you left money on the table a lot of money dummy i made that that's exactly right would say that charlie when charlie would say you've done it again but you can't keep always trying for the average person who's maybe never bought a stock before what's your advice about that you can't constantly sit there and wait and say oh it's going to go higher it's going to go higher we don't even think about that what we think about is how much is it selling for how much do we think it's worth when we bought it at 35 billion effectively i felt the company was probably worth at least 100 billion how did it come to your attention how do you find a stock like petrochina i sit there in my office and i read an annual report which fortunately was in english and it described a very good company and uh told about the oil reserves told about the refining tool about the chemicals everything else and i sat there and read it and i thought to myself this company's worth about 100 billion now i didn't look at the price first i look at the business first and try to figure out what it's worth because if i look at the price first i'll get influenced by that so i look at i look at the company first i try to value it and then i look at the price and if the price is way less than what i've just valued at i'm going to buy it and how do you value it well i that's that's the trick but it's it's essentially what i would pay for the whole business if i could buy it and uh when we sold the company stock it was valued we'll say at what seven probably 250 to 275 billion and we thought that was a fair price now oil had gone up from 38 a barrel to 75 barrel now it's up even further but today well yesterday anyway i believe petrochina is the second most highly valued company in the world higher than ge next actually exxonmobil next excellent have you sold the entire stake yeah i have mm-hmm i wish i hadn't but i have as of when well it we sold it over a period of time yeah if it went down a lot we'd buy it back would you ever buy or or sell a stock based on political pressure or or sort of people being upset about darfur had nothing to do with why you sold this stock the chinese government owns 88 of pepper china they also own control of 29 out of the 30 largest companies in china the chinese government is the one that has a position in relation to the sudan and they have it if you own any one of the 30 largest companies in in publicly traded companies in china you will have the chinese government as your majority partner and the question is are you responsible for their actions you're going to china next week for a ribbon cutting ceremony right for escort sort of the limit of my abilities liz i mean that's what they use you're pretty good at cutting a ribbon i've gotten used to it are you looking at other companies in china i don't i don't look based no the answer is pretty much no but i don't look based on on countries or that sort of thing i just i just read every report i can and i try and figure out whether something is cheap but how would you find a report like petra china four years ago this was not a name that maybe that a lot of people would other guys read playboy yeah i read any reports all right we've never even talked about the supply picture but he's talking about eventually being able to increase the supply of gold you had a shareholder who asked you a question about gold over the weekend and your response was pretty interesting berkshire versus gold you want to talk about how that's performed over the years yeah but we can go beyond that but certainly when we took over berkshire uh berkshire was selling at fifteen dollars a share and gold was selling at twenty dollars an ounce and then gold is now sixteen hundred and uh berkshire's 120 000 but but you can take a broader example than that if if you if you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it a hundred years you can go to it every day and you can you can cool to it and you can caress it and and you can fondle it and and 100 years from now you'll have one ounce of gold and it won't have done anything for you in between if you buy 100 acres of farmland it will produce for you every year you can use that money to buy more farmland you can do it all kinds of things but for a hundred years it'll produce things for you and you still have 100 acres of farmland at the end of the 100 years uh you could buy the dow jones industrial average for 66 at the start of 1900 gold was then 20 at the end it was 11 hundred but you'd all gotten dividends for a hundred years so a productive asset of any kind a decent productive asset is going to kill a non-productive asset over time now in any given one year period five year period any asset can outperform another asset tulips why don't you why don't you join me why don't you join me and buy some cows i mean i like your farmland but you know you're in nebraska for iowa you love steak i mean we we can have leather we can have um manure we can have milk we can have meat we'll implode you can have the manure i'll take the meat i've got plenty of the manure no but we employ people taking care of the cows i mean yeah little bar of gold that's worth 50 whatever we had one in here look i think it was worth like 60 or 70 000 i can get like so many head of cattle for that and and be product that was my point i but you like farmland you just too lazy to take care of the cattle or something pay some people absolutely absolutely have you ever tried to take care of cattle joe it must be i think it might be hard i i know i've tipped a few but i've never uh have you i've now i hope you have not killed that that's they're sweet they're sweet but they're not too bright like me with land you can get somebody else to do all the work give them a percentage of the crop and you can sit back there for a hundred years and get a percentage of the crop and you still got the land when you get all through i will guarantee you that farmland over 100 years is going to be gold and solar solar equities you know listening to your talk though warren um when you say with your comments about bonds that makes me think of financial assets in general which includes stocks and i think about the printing presses not only in this country but around the world you've seen the commercial with the central banks and there are periods where financial assets are great from the like early 80s to 2000 and i just wonder if there's then periods where hard assets are great and you see paulson and gold and some of these other guys in gold or commodities are you just not comfortable with commodities are there times where you should be downplaying maybe stocks or businesses and going totally full bore into commodities but you're just not comfortable doing that now the alternative with me joe the alternative uh i don't like i don't like fixed dollar investments at all i don't like short-term bonds i don't like long-term bonds we have a lot of short-term bonds but that is not because we like about just a parking place but the alternative in my view i mean certainly commodities can be an alternative but the alternative uh is income producing assets of one sort of another that that are not fixed dollar type investments and so i i i've said consistently for the last few years i i would vastly prefer to own common stocks than fixed dollar investments over a five or ten year period i don't know about the next five hours or five days and that might very well extend to rental real estate it might extend to farms i mean an investment you're looking for something where you put out money now and that asset that you buy gives you back more money over time now the problem with commodities is that you're betting on what somebody else will pay for in six months the commodity itself isn't going to do anything for you so there's two types of of assets to buy one is where the asset itself delivers a return to you such as you know rental property stocks a farm and then there's assets that you buy where you hope somebody else pays you more later on but the asset itself doesn't produce anything and those are two different games i regard the second game as speculation now there's nothing immoral or illegal or fattening about speculation but it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time i bought a farm 30 years ago uh not not far from here i've never had a quote on it since what i do is i look at what it produces every year and it produces a very satisfactory amount relative to what i paid for if if they closed the stock market for 10 years and we owned coca-cola and wells fargo and some other businesses it wouldn't bother me because i'm looking at what the business produces if i buy a mcdonald's stand i don't get a quote on it every day i look at how my business is every day so those are the kind of assets i like to own something that actually is going to deliver and hopefully deliver to meet my expectations over time a piece of art you know may go from a thousand dollars to 50 million dollars but it's dependent on what the next guy wants to pay me the the art itself the the painting itself is not going to dispense cash so i have to find somebody that's going to like it more and with most with an asset like gold for example you know basically gold is a way of of going along on fear and and it's been a pretty good way of going on fear from time to time but you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now and if they become more afraid you make money if they can become less afraid you lose money but the gold itself doesn't produce anything well speaking of gold though we're looking at gold prices and they were at another record high they're up another three dollars today 1 434 dollars an ounce and there have been some big hedge fund managers like a paulson or david einhorn who have really buckled down on these beds why would you steer clear and do you think what they're doing is the wrong thing well i just don't know i i don't know where the cotton's gonna go i mean i we use a lot of cotton i've watched it go from 80 cents to a dollar ninety you know we use a lot of copper and i watched it go from two dollars to four dollars plus so uh i mean there's all kinds of things in this world are going to go up and down in price maybe hamburgers will tomorrow and but i i i don't know how to judge that i do know how to judge to some extent the earning power of some businesses and and the real test of whether you would like it as an investment is whether you would be happy if it never got quoted again and just in terms of what the asset did for you uh but that doesn't i will say this about gold uh if you took all of the gold in the world it would it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side so if you took all the gold in the world we could have a cube that went down there 67 feet 67 feet high and that would be the whole thing now for that same cube of gold it would be worth it today's market prices about seven trillion dollars that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the united states so you can have a choice of owning a third of all the stocks in the united states or you can have a choice of owning a little block of gold which can't do anything but kind of shine there and make you feel like midas or creases or something of the sort now for seven trillion dollars there are roughly a billion far acres of farmland in the united states they're valued at about two and a half trillion dollars it's about half the continental united states is farmland uh you could have all of the farmland in the united states you could have about seven exxon mobils and you could have a trillion dollars of walking around money and if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot uh cube of gold and looking at it all day you know fondling it occasionally you know and then saying you know do something for me and it says i don't do anything i just stand here and look pretty and and the alternative to that was to have all the farmland in the country everything cotton corn soybeans seven exxon mobils just think of that add a trillion dollars of walking around money i i you know maybe call me crazy but i'll take the farmland of the exxonmobiles all right that makes some sense carl you've got a question too i'm still trying to get the image of warren fondling a giant block of gold out of my mind he's fondling it occasionally it was uh what was what stuck with me bring me a giant block of gold and you'll see me fodder like you've never seen before if you take a look at this 40-year run on the dollar the dollar is designed economically to lose money every single year so why would you save something that loses money every year and what this means for somebody on retirement plans is that after you retire your the value of your dollar goes down and your cost of living keeps going up to my rich dad that was bad advice and made no sense
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