저자: JeremyGrantham-제목/설명기준,출연자소속은명시되지않음 · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 현재 시장을 '모든 자산이 버블인' 상태로 보며 S&P500이 약 50% 추가 하락하고 경기침체가 확실하다고 경고한다. 버블 규모: 2000년 닷컴버블보다 크며, 주식뿐 아니라 부동산과 채권까지 포함된다는 점이 다르다. 2000년에는 나스닥 82%, 아마존 92%, S&P500 50% 하락을 겪었다. 현재 상황: 주식(특히 미국), 주택시장, 채권시장이 모두 역사적 고점 또는 근접 수준이며, 채권은 역사상 가장 낮은 금리까지 버블화됐다. 하락 경로 전망: 10월~4월 사이엔 하락이 어렵다고 보며, 4월 이후 본격적 하락이 나타날 가능성이 크다. S&P500은 약 3000, 여건이 악화되면 2000 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 전망한다. 경기·이익 전망: 경기는 상당히 약해지고 기업 이익률도 낮아질 가능성이 높다. 자산가치 하락 규모는 10조 달러를 넘을 것이며 신용시스템 일부에도 스트레스가 올 수 있다. 투자 조언: 미국 단기 주식은 보유하지 말고, 장기 투자가 필요하다면 자원·기후변화 관련 자산에 집중하며 그 외에는 거리를 두라고 조언한다. 시장 약세 기간: 약세장은 내년 깊숙이 들어가서야 끝날 가능성이 있으며, 펀더멘털 악화가 상당 기간 지속될 수 있다. 연준 평가: 볼커 이후 연준이 제대로 한 일이 없으며, 연쇄적 초버블을 만들어 고통스러운 붕괴를 반복시켰다고 비판한다. 현재 여건: 완벽에 가까운 경제 여건과 이익률 속에서 투자자 신뢰가 과열되어 있고, 레버리지 확대와 폰지식 사기도 나타나고 있다고 지적한다.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham warns the everything bubble is bursting the S P 500 could nosedive 50 and a recession looks certain here are the Elite investors 12 best quotes from a new interview one this one is pretty damn big it's bigger than 2000 because it includes real estate and bonds and that one did not the economy had a gentle recession it had no problem with real estate it had no problem with the markdown of debt and yet the NASDAQ went down 82 percent Amazon went down 92 percent and the s p went down 50 percent be advised this is not a gentle setback like 2000 two it's bad enough just doing the equity Market in 2000.
this time we have done a dead ringer for the equity Market Plus for gravy we've done the housing market and the bond market three the trouble with this bubble is it's an everything bubble we have bubbled the important and dangerous housing market to record prices we bubble the bond market to levels that had never been seen in the history of man with the lowest rates ever recorded Fine Arts and every other asset through the roof and equities particularly in the U.S at or close to the highest points ever reached 4.
the big picture is we have a little handful of these super bubbles every one of them is followed by a recession if you get anything really wrong like 1929 it's followed by the depression if you mess around with the financial system you have the terrible happenings of the great financial crash 5. it's generally tough to get the market to go down between October 1st and the end of April which is in six weeks time it's like the short sellers graveyard then all bets are off and back to the meat grinder Grantham explained that U.S presidents tend to stimulate the economy around the middle of their terms to create a strong backdrop by the time of the next election six we may settle for something like 3000 on the S P all being well if the extra factors bite pretty hard then the market will go closer to two thousand the economy is very likely to be quite a bit weaker and profit margins are very likely to be lower history is quite clear there are bubbles they have always broken this one is breaking seven the stresses build up like a huge pressure behind the dam and you can't really work out which brick is going to go in the dam first I'm surprised it was Silicon Valley Bank but I am not surprised that there was something surprising like Silicon Valley Bank I would have been surprised if nothing had cracked eight when you write down the perceived value by many trillions of dollars and it will be more than 10 trillion dollars by the end and you've got multiple asset classes contributing they all have consequences and you should not be surprised if a chunk of the credit system comes under stress Grantham was describing the Fallout from a massive collapse in asset prices 9.
in 2000 everybody was expensive this time around it's the US that's expensive and the rest of the world is not particularly expensive don't own short-term U.S equities if you have to have U.S equities then For Heaven's Sake play the long game and do resources and climate change and pretty well stay away from everything else 10.
I don't think the bear Market is likely to end until deep into next year and the fundamentals could drag out for quite a while but after April we will probably begin to see pressure on profit margins GDP growth and the labor market 11. I hope it's well known by now that the FED has never got anything right since Paul volcker they have merely created an environment conducive to a chain-linked series of super bubbles that break with outrageously consequential painful effects 12.
nearly perfect economic conditions and profit margins investor confidence in full screaming Blossom where people are buying stocks because they're going up and forgetting about fundamentals leverage has gone up a lot and people have started to cheat and weasel more than normal because they can Ponzi schemes have taken root here and there
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