저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2023년 침체·시장 급락 가능성을 경고하며 현금+단기채 방어 전략을 제시한 영상. 결론: 불확실성이 커서 현금과 단기채(T-bill~2년물)로 4.5~5% 수익을 확보하며 바닥을 기다리는 것이 올해 목표라는 입장. 방어 전략: 바닥을 잡으려다 큰 손실을 보느니 반등 초기 10~15%를 놓치는 편이 낫다는 판단. 현금을 쌓아두고 확신이 생기면 매수할 계획. 기업 가치 관점: 주가 밸류에이션과 사회적 가치는 별개이며, 줌은 주가가 폭락했어도 사회적 활용도는 계속 높다고 설명. 업종 전망: 기술주는 올해 힘든 해가 될 것, 에너지는 강세 예상. 가장 압박받을 자산은 정크본드(변동금리 대출 이자 급등으로 기업 부채상환 어려움, 구조조정 또는 파산 가능성). 인플레이션: 2021년 에너지발 1차, 2022년 상품 가격발 2차 인플레이션을 거쳤고, 이제 임금 인플레이션이 3차로 나타날 것. 노동 참여율 저하와 노동 측 힘 강화로 인플레이션이 생각보다 빨리 떨어지지 않는다는 역발상 주장. 원유: 바이든의 사우디 강경 기조로 OPEC+ 감산 요청이 실패했고, 사우디는 증산 기조. 공급 과잉 예상. 벤처 시장: 성장주 전반이 어렵고, 시장 청산가격이 고점 대비 80~90% 하락 수준이라 본인은 투자하지 않았다고 언급. 성장주 조정이 2~3개월이 아니라 2~3년 걸릴 수 있다고 우려. 단기 시장 흐름: 10월 이후 상승은 비관론자들의 숏 커버링 성격이 커 순매수가 아니며, VIX가 20 초중반~후반대에 이르면 단기 고점일 수 있다고 봄. 현재 VIX가 그 부근이라 경계. 정책 요인: 학자금 대출 탕감 5,000억 달러가 법원에서 제동되어 디플레이션적 요인으로 평가. 분할정부 가능성으로 추가 부양책은 제한될 전망.
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think that there's still a lot of uncertainty in the world and in the markets and so I'm generally concerned that there's a lot of chop and so I picked something that's pretty conservative but I would have a combination of cash and the front end of the yield curve so t-bills all the way up to two-year bonds so you can generate four and a half probably by the end of this year five percent pretty safely owning this stuff while you wait for things to become more certain and the way that I think about it is that I would rather Miss the first 10 or 15 percent of a rally once we're really done this stuff then try to over correct and try to pick a bottom just because I think that you could lose a lot of money so I think the goal for this year is to stay resilient and in the game and so owning having a bunch of cash on the sidelines ready to pound it in meanwhile a portion of it collecting five percent is not such a bad thing while you wait for the bottom if we've learned anything from the last three years you have to separate the valuation of a company and how it performs in the stock market with its value in society so for example if you look at Zoom zoom's valuation has cratered but its value in society has probably continued to go up it's still a massively relied upon tool the point is that markets do not give you credit for the value in society they will give you credit when you are about to over earn but then they'll pull it all back when they think that you're going to under earn so in that lens I think that Tech will have a tough year I think energy will have a really year and probably the biggest asset class that is going to get pressured is going to be junk debt and the reason is a bunch of these variable rate loans when rates are at five and six percent that all of a sudden are like 11 12 13 14 coupons a bunch of companies will have trouble meeting their debt obligations and will have to restructure the debt or we'll have to file inflation which people expect to fall off a cliff doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want and so I will explain inflation as three different chapters and we've seen the first two chapters play out so 2021 chapter one was all about energy inflation and you know we all talked about having almost ten dollar gas at the pump and what does it mean for everybody and it caused that initial Spike in inflation and then we had it come off and sax called this he said you know we're going to have this sort of double hump and 2022 was really the story of goods inflation right all these prices and all of these things went up because the input costs went up and we all had to Bear the implications of that but then that started to ebb and now if you looked at the tail end of 2022 what I found super interesting was the number of articles I saw about wage inflation whether that was Biden using an 1800s era law to prevent a Railroad Strike the number of states that increased minimum wage the trend around unionization so in general my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from capital and towards labor and as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down and also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up right people are it's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more and if that gets exaggerated then inflation will stay where it is it won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want it'll be persistent that's my big contrarian got it wager for this year is that we that is equation we see wage inflation that keeps inflation not going down as much as people want the shitty thing by the way about your selection is that Biden are explicit stance is unfortunately quite confrontational with MBS and yeah you saw that play out in Q4 we asked them to ease up on OPEC plus to introduce Supply cuts and they did some nominal hundred thousand Barrel per day cut didn't do much of anything there was an article to your point free bird just recently about Saudi really doubling down on getting the oil out of the ground and monetizing their petrochemicals so there's just going to be a glott of Supply in the market and we have the least amount of influence with Saudi Arabia than we've ever had and it seems like we could change that if we decided to but I think Biden has taken this very confrontational approach which doesn't seem to make a lot of sense they were all clean markups so the four deals that other people put money into and I was looking at them and I was trying to figure out okay what differentiates these things in Freebird to your point these were super clean startups with very clean cap tables that had clear progress and then conversely I had seven converts showed to me for companies whose valuations were anywhere between three and I would say 12 billion and I did none of them and not only did I do none of them nobody else did any of them and the problem was the real market clearing price was 80 to 90 percent down and so I was like what is going on here so free bird to your point I don't even think it's just cash intensive startups I think it's like all growth companies are in a really bad place I thought that this growth stuff would get sorted out in two to three months and now I'm worried it's two to three years at the beginning of October yeah I think what we basically said kind of generally speaking is markets up right markets I went from nibbling to being constructively positive and basically being positioned long here's this really interesting setup we have a bunch of very positive news that I think we all have to process first positive news was that inflation takedown now here's what I'll tell you there's a caveat here I talked to a bunch of pretty smart Sharps on Wall Street and oh two things number one is they all gave credit to David sacks and they said sax was totally right double dip recession is coming but then they said tell sacks that we think that these are the sharps we think that there's a double hump in inflation coming which means it's coming down to come back up and there's a bunch of reporting vagaries that may cause that so keep that in the back of your mind but positive news number one is inflation ticking down um number two and Jason we talked about this a federal judge basically stayed Biden's attempt at giving student loan relief now that would have been a 500 billion dollar transfer payment from the government into the hands of individuals it is deflationary to not put give that money to people it's effectively taking stimulus away from folks number three it looks like we're headed towards a split government which means that we are not probably going to see any more stimulus over the next two years I think if you take them together what it says is that wow there's there's the potential for a lot of great positive developments over the next six or nine months and I don't think that that was adequately priced in the market but here's the problem and this is what's why we've been rallying the problem is that most of this rallying has been because of a bunch of short covering by folks that who were pretty pessimistic and negative after the last few inflation prints so this is not really net new buying that we saw over the last couple days about this Jason when the vix gets into the low 20s or the High Teens that's probably the short term top and then it turns around and unfortunately we're near the low 20s High Teens so that's kind of my thought on things right now
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