저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 시장이 현재 수준에서 50% 이상 추가 하락할 수 있다고 주장하며, 이는 인플레이션 과소집계와 소비자 붕괴가 원인이라고 본다. 인플레이션: 버리는 CPI가 주택비용을 실제보다 낮게 집계해 실제 인플레이션은 발표치보다 약 4%p 높으며, 실제로는 12% 수준일 수 있다고 주장한다. 1970년대 대인플레이션과 현재를 비교한다. 소비자: 미국 GDP의 약 70%가 개인소비인데, 과거 18개월간 대규모 부양금·채무 탕감 등 지원이 끝나면서 소비자 여력이 소진됐다고 본다. 미시간대 소비자기대지수는 역대 최저 수준이며, 아마존 매출 성장 둔화를 근거로 든다. 채권 공매도: 버리는 30년물 국채를 공매도(TBT 등 인버스 펀드 보유)해 이익을 얻었다고 밝히며, 금리 상승 시 채권 가격이 하락한다는 점을 근거로 든다. TBT는 공매도 이후 43% 이상 상승했다고 언급한다. 밸류에이션: S&P500은 실러 PE 약 36.5, 명목 PE 약 21 수준이며, 역사적 평균(실러 PE 약 16, 명목 PE 약 9) 수준으로 회귀하면 약 55% 하락이 필요하다고 주장한다. 거래량: 공포 국면에서 거래량이 늘어나야 하는데 현재 거래량은 과거에 없던 낮은 수준이며, 이는 시장 악화의 신호라고 본다. 장기투자: 진행자는 장기 보유 시 단기 폭락은 감내 가능하다는 입장으로, 아마존이 닷컴버블 때 95% 하락 후 회복한 사례를 든다. 리스크 관리: 감정적 고통을 감당할 수 있는지 점검하고, 포트폴리오 분산과 단기 변동성 대응 방안을 고려하라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
Significant market crashes have frequently resulted in large profits for Michael Burry. Despite the market's already considerable depletion, Burry believes that this is simply the start of a far deeper decline. According to his forecast, the market will drop by over 50% from its current level. Hey, welcome to Stock Market Mate.
Today, we'll discuss what Barry thinks of the market and how you should manage your risks. Before we get into it, subscribe to the channel and hit that notification bell to help us beat the Youtube Algorithm. If you’re done with that, then let’s get right to it. Even though it has been almost a year since Burry made his initial prediction in 2021, events have played out exactly as he expected.
Burry predicted rising inflation, the end of growth companies, a market correction, and declining bond prices. One of the factors that allowed Burry to predict market disasters was the predictability of human nature. Despite technical improvement, history shows that human behavior has not altered. Michael Burry's assessment of a few troubling fundamentals is evidence in favor of his prediction.
Some economists will predict that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is about to collapse, while others will assert that China's economy is fragile or that interest rates in the U.S are still rising despite the possibility that each of those scenarios is real, there is only one element that can lead to the collapse of the economy: the customer.
Because consumers are the engine that drives the economy, at some point their instability will bring the entire system crashing down. 7.1% of the US GDP is almost completely made up of personal consumption expenses. If we all cut back on our consumption and start saving, the economy will collapse. This has been the problem for the preceding 18 months, said Burry.
Less 800 billion in direct stimulus checks, 400 billion in refinancing, over 1 trillion in forgiven debts, 250 to 500 billion of which were fraudulent, another 4 trillion, in indirect payments, and etc. Pay increases won't recapitalize the consumer as it is now being done. Rapid price increases in the economy have given consumers the impression that their money is worth significantly less, and there is ample data to back up this assertion.
Consumer power is at an all-time low. The most well-known measure of consumer behavior is the consumer expectations index from the University of Michigan, which suggests that consumer demand is weaker, as evidenced by the fact that consumer expectations are at an all-time low and Amazon's revenue growth is slowing down.
The first quarter numbers for Amazon were appalling, with sales growing by only 7% year over year and the majority of the revenue is almost nonexistent. In the technological age, Amazon has supplanted other markets as the main location where most consumers shop for their items. The extremely precarious situation that consumers are in may be observed in Amazon's poor quarterly financial results.
So how did Burry accumulate millions? And how can investors replicate his success? Burry projects that one of the first negative effects of decreased consumer demand will be enterprises' struggle to hold onto a double rate of return. Burry expects to make millions, if not billions, of dollars in the coming year by using "bond shorts." He mentioned, among other things, that starting in late 2021, he will be selling 30-year Treasury Bonds.
"For what it's worth, I've never shorted any coin. This is my third bubble and the biggest. I've learned a thing or two from 30-year treasuries," he posted on Twitter. On the other hand, Burry's motivation for shorting bonds is quite evident. When inflation rose to nearly 7%, bond investors were certain to lose 5% yearly, even though the return on 30-year bonds was still just about 2%.
Due to the short-term inverse relationship between bond rates and bond prices, bond prices fall as yields increase. One of the funds that Burry bought is TBT, which invests in ultra-short 20-year treasury securities. TBT provides a range of bonds. Due to rising interest rates, inflation, and the current situation in Ukraine, bond yields have risen sharply over the past few months.
As a result, TBT has increased and bonds have fallen. Since it first opened a short position, the TBT fund has gained by more than 43%, which is a significant profit. Burry, though, believes that future benefits will be significantly higher. He most recently tweeted a 1977 photo of himself along with the message "1977 says hello." It alluded to how the economy was doing in the 1970s.
Because of the high rates of inflation during that time, the 1970s are known as the "great inflation age." From a rate of 6.5% in 1977 to roughly 14% in 1980, inflation reached its highest point. This is essentially the same as how things are right now. According to Burry, the present inflation rate of 8% could eventually increase to 10% or even 15%.
It's even feasible that inflation has already surpassed 10%. Burry questions the Consumer Price Index, which is used to determine inflation. Using genuine NAR housing data, he clarifies that the CPI shows that housing expenses climbed 5% in the prior year. CPI 12 is the incorrect value. BLS has always smoothed out housing statistics because home prices have been a problem for so long.
As a result, they'll start changing car rates the next month, and the problem is therefore resolved. Burry essentially asserts that the information utilized to generate the CPI is out of date. If you use actual data to calculate the cost of housing, the CPI number indicates that house prices climbed by only 5% last year, which is unquestionably untrue.
The current inflation rate of 8% is four percentage points higher than the genuine rate because the CPI inflation rate would be at 12%. The market would crash by about 55% of current price levels as a result of this error in judgment and other macroeconomic factors. The S&P 500 reached its bottom at a 13% lower level than in 2002.
There were 10 drops from the bottom of the 1970s and 1975, and 17 reductions from the LTCM crisis low in 2002. The current low is 15 points higher than SPX 1862. The nominal price-earnings ratio is nine, while the Schiller PE ratio is approximately 16. These figures are based on historical data. The S&P will crash to a level that is just slightly below the collapse linked to covid if we assume that the pattern of Market collapses identified by Michael Burry persists.
Burry uses the number 15 as an example to examine whether it would, in theory, make sense if the S&P dropped to this previous low during covid at a rate of 15. The index would have reached historical price levels when it reached 1800 points or around 55 points below present levels. One of the statistics Burry included with his tweet shows the Schiller PE ratio through time.
The Schiller ratio is a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which means it adjusts the price-to-earnings ratio while taking inflation into consideration. Right now, Schiller's ratio is 36.55. It would drop to around 16, which is consistent with the historical average. Burry also provided a graph depicting the nominal price-to-earnings ratio (PE Ratio) during the last 12 months.
A 55 percent collapse would roughly translate to a value of 9, and the current PE ratio is 21. Burry believes that a PE of 9 would be somewhat below average. All of this lends credence to his claim that the difficulty has not yet subsided. Some of you think that if you own equities for the long run, short-term crashes don't matter.
This is absolutely true if you can take the emotional pain of seeing a significant fall in your portfolio. Long-term profitability is regularly produced by great companies despite temporary obstacles. One example from the dot com bubble is Amazon. Burry wanted to know how long a good expanding company's stock could last, one destined to be one of the greatest companies in the world.
Do you remember when Amazon's price dropped by 95% yet the FED did not need to be concerned about inflation to this degree? Yes, if you can't keep your trust in a stock that is down more than 95%, perhaps the stock market isn't for you. Short-term volatility causes emotional emotions in all investors, and controlling such feelings can be difficult.
The trade volume is another sign of greater deterioration when it comes to volatility. The trading volume rises when buyers boost their purchasing and selling activity during market crashes. A trading volume of outstanding stocks this low has never existed. Burry has offered a detailed explanation of each action that occurs.
That’s about it for today, if you fi. Also, you might want to leave a comment below. We love hearing from you. video.
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