저자: CathieWood및StockMarketMate진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주식 보유만으로 은퇴가 가능한지 계산해 보는 영상으로, 결론은 현재가 기준으로도 비교적 적은 금액으로 은퇴 목표에 도달할 수 있다는 낙관적 주장이다. 캐시 우드의 약세 시나리오(1000만 대 판매, 평균 3.8만 달러, 2026년 매출총이익률 50%, 2026년 시가총액 3.3조 달러, 분할 전 주당 4600달러 추정치)를 소개하고, 진행자는 이를 지나치게 보수적이라고 평가한다. 계산 결과, 은퇴에 필요한 약 170만 달러를 위해 1108주가 필요하며, 당시 주당 약 13달러 기준 약 13만 6천 달러가 필요하다고 제시한다. 이후 2027년 주당 2000달러 시나리오에서는 850주(약 10만 4천 달러)면 충분하다고 주장한다. 테슬라 긍정 요인으로 판매량 증가, 분기 인도량의 컨센서스 상회, 로보택시, 사이버트럭, 휴머노이드 로봇, 배터리 생산 등을 꼽는다. 반면 판매 부진, 주가 하락 이력, 배터리 생산 차질, 재생에너지 과제 등은 리스크로 언급되나 진행자는 대체로 낙관적으로 본다. 주가 전망으로 2025년 약 2500달러, 2030년 캐시 우드 기준 3000달러 이상 전망을 인용한다. 영상 제작 시점은 2023년 2월이며 제목의 2026·2027년 은퇴 시점은 미래 가정이다. 다른 대상 자산에 대한 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
It’s no secret that life at Tesla Inc has drastically altered in recent times, with Elon facing constant criticism and the future of Tesla appearing to be rather dubious. But it's to our advantage. We who know that Elon will pull through. We can pay less to get the necessary number of shares that would enable retirement now that Tesla shares are trading at a significant discount.
Hey, welcome to Stock Market Mate. Today, we'll discuss how many Tesla shares you'll need so that you can live off of passive income from your Tesla shares. Long-time Tesla supporter Cathie Wood makes the argument for the worst-case scenario, but we will demonstrate all the positives Tesla has to offer, likely making the bear case scenario overly pessimistic.
According to the bear case, 10 million vehicles will be sold for an average price of $38,000. This would result in revenue from automobiles alone of $372 billion. We know that this 10 million is a roundup because it should be 380. The fact that Tesla's Robo taxi services are not included in this figure, however, is impressive.
It seems absurd that the cost of a robot taxi or autonomous riding vehicle is 51 billion dollars. The gross margin for electric vehicles is 46% as opposed to 28% in Q3 figures, which is much better in this case. By 2026, the gross margin will be an outrageous 50%. Amazingly, the overall EBITDA margin is 37%, indicating effectiveness.
In Q3, it was a little over 23%, but by 2026, they expect it to be 37%. That's crazy, but we're interested in how they calculated enterprise value for 2026 because we typically determine enterprise value for the current year. So, at least for us, the ability to extend till 2026 should raise some IROs.
They already know how much debt and money they will have, so they act accordingly. By 2026, they will supply 9.8 million vehicles, as agreed. It might be over the top. Other forecasts state that there will be 7 million or more by 2026, so let's wait and see how things turn out. Cathie Wood estimates a 50 percent gross margin, which would result in revenue of roughly $250 billion.
On the basis of total gross profit after costs, defending the stock price of 967, which is 2900 before the split. Operating margin and expenses were not shown in Cathie Woods and Arc's chart. They substituted Enterprise Value by EBITDA instead. We'll see how Enterprise Value arrived at the Tesla stock price and market worth of 3.3 trillion by 2026 since they need to know the cash in debt by that year.
It's realistic to assume that if they achieve 50 gross margins by 2026, an operating margin of 30 seems about right. In conclusion, Cathie Woods' bear case claims that the pre-split share price of 2,900 dollars would be equivalent to about 967 dollars per share, with a projected value of 4,600 dollars per share by 2026.
That would be 1,533 per share following the three for one equity split. To be able to retire safely, which, according to a recent survey, amounts to 1.7 million dollars each individual, you would require 1,108 shares of Tesla. The worst-case situation is that. 1,108 Tesla shares are currently trading for $13 per share.
So, in order to reach that magic retirement investment amount of $136,400 today, you would need to invest roughly that much. That's not too bad. Now, let's look at recent market developments and how we believe that, in light of these tendencies, the bear case is simply too conservative. Tesla has experienced several ups and downs but is currently experiencing a small rally.
The stock price has decreased multiple times over the last year, but has picked up slightly in the last few months, despite some negative headlines. However, given that the price of the Tesla stock is still relatively low, could purchasing the shares now enable some people to retire with gains? Tesla could anticipate the future.
Indeed, depending on the direction of the Stock and how skillfully Tesla navigates this Market, of course, now is a great opportunity to buy Tesla stock. So assuming you buy in Tesla stock giving its Market potential, how many shares do you need now to retire in 2027? The concern is whether Tesla can reach a high price in 2027, given the company has experienced a decline and will probably still experience more.
However, based on stock potential, the dips are anticipated to be minor. Whether Tesla is a great company to invest in or not, the stats suggest that now might be a great moment to invest in the stock for the long term. Remember that Tesla's success single-handedly propelled us into several bull markets, even though some analysts thought Tesla was overvalued at the time.
Today, the EV brand has partnered with other businesses like lucidrivian and neoloc and has expanded into new markets to increase production and broaden its market reach. Investor predictions place the stock price at around 2,500 by 2025, and well-known individuals like Cathie Wood believe the stock will be worth over $3,000 by 2030.
Furthermore, their background suggests that they might be onto something big for Tesla. These projections are based on in-depth analysis of Tesla's stock performance and future prospects. Tesla has significantly increased its production and delivery of vehicles during the past two years. After the corporation delivered 108,600 vehicles in the most recent quarter, it recently surpassed consensus projections.
A minority of retirees put in the effort necessary to preserve above-average financial security in later years, despite the fact that the majority of employees just look forward to retirement. If you invested in a high value stock with a good gross potential, how many Tesla shares would you need to have in your portfolio to be able to retire in five years?
Let's perform some calculations, shall we? As we previously stated, the average person needs roughly 1.7 million to retire comfortably, according to a recent survey. Let's now consider a Tesla scenario that is a little bit more positive than Cathie Woods' bear case presented earlier. In this case, 850 shares of Tesla stock would be required if the price of a single share of Tesla reached $2,000 in 2027.
Given the price of Tesla right now, this will only be approximately 104,000, but there could be a sizable profit. Several intriguing ideas from Tesla have the potential to drive the stock price to a high level in the future if they live up to expectations, which we sincerely hope they do. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, established the company's primary goal when it first began: to build a high-performance car, then use the profits to build a more affordable car, and finally use those profits to build even more affordable cars while also providing options for zero-emission electric power generation.
According to Musk, the development of humanoid robots may eventually overtake the automobile industry in importance and may even eliminate the need for physical labor, which would be advantageous for businesses because it would result in lower labor costs. In the same way, Tesla's Model 2 is a big initiative that, if it succeeds, might challenge and advance the field of artificial intelligence.
Tesla supporters nevertheless keep their ears open for any potential news. The cyber truck from Tesla might be available in a few months. Musk claims that one of Tesla's issues was their inability to produce enough 4,680 battery cells for the Cyber truck, deviating from their initial 2021 target. Additionally, he stated that the production would not begin until the Texas gigafactory began producing the new model.
So it's lucky that the truck's building got started in 2022. Tesla enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the 2023 release of the Cyber truck. This has been confirmed by Elon Musk, who stated that Tesla will complete the Cyber truck's development by the end of the year and have it ready for manufacturing by 2023.
Tesla has made it known that it plans to build driverless taxis. The Tesla-built robo cab is expected to offer a number of first-rate features. The car will be built with many uses in mind and give passengers the highest comfort. Not just Tesla enthusiasts, but everyone who enjoys innovative innovation may find this to be a fascinating endeavor.
This, together with the robo bots' design to offer the lowest cost per mile of transportation ever encountered, may make them the next era of commercial transportation. Even though clean transportation might benefit from renewable energy sources like solar and wind, Elon understood that this project's high battery requirements would be difficult to meet.
An examination into an investment in a growth stock like Tesla may be a decent retirement plan for 2027 if it can figure out its renewable energy, but it will be far ahead of the competition. Well, that’s about it for today’s video. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section. If you found this video helpful, kindly click the like and subscribe button. Thank you for watching and we’ll see you in the next one.
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