저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장은 지난 5개월간 약세로, 중소형주는 이미 약세장 진입. 과거 1년간 중소형주 초과수익이 컸고 그 일부가 조정되는 과정. 대형 지수는 10~15% 조정이 건전한 수준이며 중소형은 25~30% 하락 가능. 바닥은 종목별로 형성 중. 은행섹터는 신용성장 둔화 및 FII 매도로 부진. 재정·통화정책(금리인하, 세금감면, 신용확대) 및 인프라 투자 재개로 1H 회복 기대. 글로벌 자금은 미국 집중 현상이 지속되어 단기 유입은 제한적.
다듬은 글
Well, the last 5 months have been very painful for the equity markets. In fact, in technical terms, if you look at the Nifty mid-cap index is about to enter the bear market while the Nifty small-cap index has already entered the bear market. Amidst such toughness in the market, we have Ramdeo Agarwal joining us to decode how to steer such weakness in the market and what to do going forward.
So, so there are multiple reasons that have led to this market fall. We will not discuss that definitely, but how much further do you see there could be a downside in the markets? Do you see that bottom is now near? I have no idea. That is the truth and nobody has any idea, let me tell you. Right. So, don't bother about anybody knowing it.
But, it's a it's a process. Last year, index went up by 10%, but we made 40-50%. People made 70-80% also. So, there was too much of divergence in making money and bulk of the money was made in mid and small. So, obviously mid and small did extremely well, more than even the indices underlying. So, clearly on a 10% rise last year, you had 25% return.
So, there was almost 25-30% excess return. Some portion of that had to go away this year and that's what is happening. So, my sense is on a limited fall of the broader market, say by 10%, 15%, which will look like a healthy correction. The the decline in mid and small will be far sharper, maybe 25-30%.
Right. Or already that much has happened. So, some more to go, but that's a that's a process. Right. And based on historical trends and your understanding of the market, do you expect that how do you see the recovery will be in fact? Will it be a swifter one or will it be slower one? Would can we see all-time high this year or will the recovery be very much slow right now?
See, one is that fall will be very gradual because there's a continuous inflow from the domestic side. So, market is well supported at every level. That's why you see whenever FIs are selling at 4,000 crores, DIs continuously there to support that. So, there is no crisis of flow. So, it will be very gradual decline in the market.
But, what cannot be sustained will not sustain. In valuation in valuation terms, what cannot sustain if the stock is at 100 PE or 150 PE and that is not a fair valuation of the company. Okay? So, all kinds of supplies will come and buyers will not come. So, promoter himself may come and sell. You know, if the price is wrong, why not promoter will find ways of selling it?
So, and then the existing holders, say 50% with the promoter, so promoter might sell 5%, then 50% holders which are there, they are smart guys, they will come and sell and it will go to whom? The guys who are very innocent, the guys who are coming in new into the market, those innocent people, they will end up buying.
So, so my sense is that uh there were excesses in the valuation of mid and small and quite a bit of that is already cleared in last four five months. And depending on how well the earnings come and earnings growth come, I think individual stocks will take their own course and there are some stocks which are already bottoming out.
So, I think now the bottoming out process will be stock by stock. Not mid-cap all. There will be some mid-caps which might have already made the bottom or maybe in the process of making a bottom or it has already started recovering. Stronger companies you'll find they would be they would be recovering at a first sign of what do you call bottoming out.
So, I'm seeing some say like today, today is the day when actually, you know, say you see some kind of a yesterday and today some stabilization. Right, but which are the stocks which are having making kind of a sharper recovery? So, those are stocks where I think so, it will be very stock-wise and you have to be see like as an investor, I never bother about what is what market is going to do.
I'm concerned about what stock is going to do, what the company is going to do. If the company prospects are bad, whatever I mean, somebody might be selling at 1,000 bucks or 800 bucks, I don't care because it's a it's a hopeless situation. So, I guess valuation is the what was one of the concern and that is still the bigger concern when it comes to mid and small-cap at least.
But, when it comes to large-cap valuations now look pretty much at par with what it was at a 5-year average wise if we look at. Then why is it that we are not seeing a recovery when it comes to large capital now? Yeah, so there FI selling is continuous. See, FIs hold 30-40% of the liquidity in that particular those counters.
So, clearly at for whatever macro reasons, they are selling. And hence, whenever the domestics go to go and try and buy and become bullish on them, the water is thrown from FI side. So, that's how the the stock is not able to see higher level. And second, I think one of the thing was the banking sector where in '24-'25 lot of regulatory thing came up by RBI to slow down the credit growth.
And that led to the earnings growth decline. And so, I think that sector suffered big time in that particular period because between '20 to '20 three three four years, it was led by banking sector. You know, because the earnings growth in that sector was upwards of 25-30%. Then as the credit growth has started slowing down, some of the some of the larger private sector banks, they started suffering and that took the fizz out of the entire sector.
And on top of it, FIs had their own reason to sell. And they had the maximum ownership of those banks. So, it all came together to depress that particular sector and even now it is staying depressed. So, let's see I mean, what pulls out because markets are very complex, you know, quite possible that in the new regime now, maybe credit there is a rate cuts, there is a promise that credit flow will be better in the economy.
And there is a fiscal push also in this budget. So, all in all, I think as the economy starts recovering the first half of this year, hopefully the mood mood in the FI segment and mood in the even banking sector. Right now, mood in the banking sector is bad, I can tell you this. So, would that see when you talk to the banker, if he he's he doesn't give a very good commentary, then you also think okay, why if RBI is saying more tighter, more difficult, then why do I do money now invest money?
That's the kind of when when the banker says that boss, everything is good and all is going well, I mean, my I mean, I want to grow 30% but we can grow only at 20%. That's the point of time when the buyers start flooding in. Actually, I had one question on that as well. Yes, government has done everything from its side.
They have given tax regime tax cuts relaxation, then there is RBI which has come in and done a rate cut as well. Capex is also pretty much steady if you look at the actual number. Is there any much more what much more can the government do in fact? Is there any arsenal left with the government to give the government push going to give the consumption push going forward?
I think macro doesn't really matter, but again, the government's job is to spend the money that is coming in and spend it properly. So, how instead of doling out a lot of So, how instead of doling out you know, a lot of uh things, I mean, now elections are over. So, now they must come back and say that boss, the infrastructure gap in the country is so massive.
So, they have done a wonderful job in the past. So, now they have to again bring that animal spirit in terms of executing with a what do you call a lot of determination, the infrastructure projects because the payoff is maximum. You can see in Mumbai what a dramatic change because of coastal road. One coastal road getting commissioned, you know.
I mean, that has changed the face of the city. You know, I I I stay there. come down by at least 10 to 15 minutes on an average at any time. And I'm seeing more than a lakh car coming and going in a day. Maybe it might be one 1.25 1.5. So, it's a So, that So, it brings so much of efficiency and all.
So, I think the infrastructure push which which was going on for last four five years, I think in the election period, it got a little slowed down. So, that push the moment it comes, maybe in the first quarter or fourth quarter or first quarter, I think economy will get its its strength and and now even bit of fiscal push is there in this budget.
There's a tax cut that will start flowing from April itself. So, and then credit flow which is even bigger than all of it. Right. So, all three when they come together, I think first half should see and whatever gaps are there at that point of time, we'll see what needs to be done more. Right. The reasons that you are mentioning that led to a slow earnings growth.
In fact, Q3 earnings growth if you look at it is one of the slowest that we have seen since COVID. For FY25, if you see, we started the year with an expectation of around 13-14% growth. Now we are expecting just a 5% growth forecast. But, for FY26 and '27, if you look at the assumption, it's barely around 14 to 15%.
Do you think that is reasonable now? No, I don't think we are expecting that high. Okay. We'll be very See, what happens is when the earnings are slow, they also don't have any crystal ball to say it can be 15-20%. Right. Even into the market, you know, so analysts will come So, clearly next year is work in progress, but all the stars are getting aligned.
Fiscal, monetary, soft oil prices, credit growth. I think credit is going to play a major role. So, how fast we can deliver credit in the system, that would be the key and so, let's see I mean, maybe I think by first quarter second quarter, we should see real vibrancy in the economy. I mean, where at least the capital capex side pick up should be very clearly pronounced and uh and We just say I just say I got to be I got to be I got to be me I If for some reason still corporations are missing out on this this thing then government has to do something and that at that point of time only we'll come to know he can do something.
Right. So last question that I have if I have sold off nearly 10 billion dollars in the last 5-6 months you must be speaking to multiple foreign investors. What is your conversation giving? What has changed their view towards India? Is it the fact that they're moving funds from India to China and what needs to be done for them to bring back this money back back to the country?
There's no bringing back it's about I can It's a global macro allocation you know I mean right now still the the all roads lead to America. Right. The strong dollar is strong economy full employment everything is America right now and those seven eight companies they are global monopolies you know. So and more so the entire tech boom and China may would be seeking to seek trillion trillion half dollar rally over so the now the stock markets also become extremely tech sensitive where the tech thing is happening.
Because take the scale delivers monopolistic profits so all everything converges there and there is a size also because it's monopolistic. So I think uh right now there is a massive strength in US and US currency. There is no reason see either you should be blistering in terms of growth that you are 8% 9% and it is uncontrollable so then people will find way of entering into India.
But that is also not the case. Right. To make you want to have a currency beta wire up economy slowing down your corporate earnings are slowing down. I saw valuation we have at this company this year though something must change. You have to correct a lot of will be new army. Uh 15% correction will be a new army too.
I think we should not expect too much of flow very quickly from from global allocators. Right. Thank you sir thank you for joining us and giving us your insights about the markets. Thank you.
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