저자: PrashantKhemka · 외국인
요약 보기
2025년 예산안은 소비 촉진(소득세 면제 상향)과 규제 완화(사업하기 편한 환경) 측면에서 긍정적이라는 평가. 다만 자본지출은 기대보다 낮고 재정 여력은 제한적이며, 시장은 단기적으로 변동성이 클 수 있음. 비트코인 등 개별 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음. 키디아는 단기 시장 기대에 회의적이며 청년 실업 문제를 우려함.
다듬은 글
We started off with the premises of Budget 2025 will accelerate India well it definitely will market is still in two minds on what the reaction should be on the budget and that is showing with the little that you see on the charts but now for a view from Vijay Keria Individual Investor Keria ji you are very welcome and we were waiting to hear your take on all of this what have you got in mind by now you mean composition dialogue everything must have been prepared no no no nothing is prepared yet madam I am just reviewing the budget right now what are your top three points was the income tax relief a positive surprise for you and was it expected no no of course it was not expected I also never expected that it should be now 10 lakh so it was a really great surprise and it is a good reform you can call it after GST and all end of course as the finance minister has said that it will be 1 lakh crore will come into the system and all it is certainly no doubt going to increase the consumption ji and consumption is a concern economy is different year and so if you think this market is going to touch neither this reform nor this policy I don't think so I have no doubt Vijay ji, we noticed that you have put yourself in the middle class, right now while standing with Mukesh bhai there is no class at all, you think with him and not market way of the market so if about it because sticking to fiscal deficit fiscal discipline is a good thing yes the capex number is not as high as expected but it also has to be realistic about how much you can spend the government able to spend last year so by saying this he probably also mentioned the capex of the second year They reduced it by 10%, they reduced it, so what we are talking about is that we want to become a 30 trillion dollar economy, 40 trillion dollar economy and all these things, it is going to happen only if it is something unexpected, surprisingly unexpected, that we think that until that animal speed comes within the system, we cannot continue to grow at 6%.
Growth is very good. We claim that we are the fastest growing economy in the world, but look at our base, also know, every time we are comparing ourselves with China and other countries and all, but just try to understand our base, till then we really grow at 15-20%, I think till then there is not going to be any major disruption here, so I think this is a mix, that okay, all the defense stocks have gone down, all the infrastructure stocks have gone down, they have given the budget for the next year.
Cape he has reduced it to a mix, it is not a straight one way traffic inside it, yes brother, it is not a straight one way traffic, it is not like that, okay the one way traffic, Vijay Kidiya is right, Mr. Kidiya, before you go, whether you are prepared or not, you take on the spot, then we will definitely listen to a song or a couplet from you, but while you are walking, Prashant Khemka ji is also with us, so let's get him also in the conversation, let's listen to him also, but before you go, you will have to recite a couplet, so I am not even going, before you go, I am saying one share, Prashant ji will also say one share, Prashant ji will also say one share, okay let's ask him, Prashant ji first, Kedia ji first, okay, that's okay, that's okay, this is a great thing because not only do we get Vijay Kidiya to say a share and after that we get Prashant Khemka also to make an attempt, so this is great, but Prashant great having thanked you for joining us, you know to the The point that Vijay Kedia was making is right that it is not a one way thing but can a budget really be that in that sense considering the tight fiscal room that the FM is working with and then for this is a budget what the government or the FM is saying that we tried to do capex the private sector did not come in and can let's traction now at that a thing it is good for the market not good market is dull queer me this if you don't mind so Kedia ji here take the liberty of response in Hindi please let's do that and mix Hindi me boliye bahut aaga dekhiye I think in the last several years according to me this is the best budget because from the perspective I see, what is the mindset of the government reflecting the mindset of this government now over the years many times it happens that not a particular this government and the prior Modi government and any prior government but Many times governments get into the mode of fine tuning and micro managing everything or the ease of doing business.
It always makes it more difficult to do business for business and it more difficult to do business, so job creation becomes difficult. Now this is a theme that comes through in the budget. I found in like every 10 minute segment of the budget. If you listen and I keep tab of these points as I listen to the budget, then in almost every 10 minute segment the Finance Minister has said something or the other related to ease of doing business.
To me, it is the biggest problem for India and even today it is that doing business is very difficult, isn't it? It is much better than 10 years ago and 15 years ago, but even today, understand India's ranking, it was 14 in 2014, it became 63 by 2020, even today, if they actually publish it, if the World Bank then it Even today it will be at number 40, 50 or 30, 40 if you are a 30, 40 country nobody cares really right in any sport I am saying if you are 30th, 40th in football, which country we don't know cricket may be, want to be number one, then ease of doing business which is you know the pillar on which a country can create jobs and grow faster, in that we have to keep improving ourselves continuously and that is at least directionally obviously magnanimous in this budget and that is why this budget is very big positive for me, I cannot say the same for the last budget and my comments on the last budget are also there in the media and I was also talking about Congress and its competition on the budget but in this budget I can go through the points if you like but there are numbers of points where ease of doing business budget has been you know anchorage yes there are some mine The pet peeve is that till now the government has not made it possible for fund managers like me to move back from Singapore, Hong Kong, London to India and in GIFT City, which is a dream of Modi ji, fund managers like us cannot come and establish there because of the issues and difficulty of doing business under section 10.
But keeping that personal issue aside, I think directionally this is a very positive budget. Okay Prashant, we will do one thing because there are only like 15 minutes left for the markets to shut. So one I would love for you to come sometime next week. Should you have the time, and you can come with us and talk about ease of doing business for 15-20 minutes because it would be really good to see because I completely agree.
But before Kidiya ji's poetry and your poetry, I would like to hear one more question of yours and one more answer of yours. Prashant, what is the firm market perspective? Is this budget constructive or a non-event again because ease of doing business is so important to structural growth and job creation and hence the economy and corporate earnings and hence the market.
According to me this is a positive budget without a doubt. Whatever the market sees in the short term, the markets have become volatile in the short term. In the very short term, like one day, a few hours, the market can shoot from the hip. First of all, but as per market digest, I think they are more positive in the budget than negative.
So, whatever Prashant Khemka ji said on this, I would like to give Vijay Kidiya's view on this because the direction is the same, but the outlook at least in the short term, the budget is quite distinct. Vijay K ji, you must have heard all the comments of Khemka ji, this is one of the best budgets seen in recent times.
You are not 100% on that. What will it take to win, you know, I will tell you, I learn from the people like Prashant ji. And other economists and other industries and when I listen to their interviews then I actually make up my mind and I learn from them as on date as of now I am talking to you I really feel that I don't think that this market this budget what ever it is it is going to take the market to the next level I doubt it I have my own doubt so many things are there in price shares so many shares are still expensive even FMCG also if you compare to them they are expensive so from the investor's point of view as an individual investor I don't think that I would be very keen just because of this budget I was keen to buy any shares and all so or no no I was asking this ok this is about the budget here many people have been saying since morning that now let's see what happens to February Seth what does the Governor say what interest Rates get some push from liquidity, would that be the next big trigger because the question is how to get out of this quagmire we are stuck in, in this range?
Look, in my limited knowledge, you also know that I am not an educated person like these people. I fear only one thing in India, I have said this many times to you and on your channel as well. I fear unemployment in India. I feel that how will the government address the group of 1 crore people who are gathering every year to enter the job market.
Only one question keeps revolving in my mind. Reducing my tax rate does not seem so important to me, it is more important to me that how should maximum number of people come into the tax net? They should come by earning, they should come by getting employed and they should pay tax. I mean this is not by force and I always say that when there are 240000 people in India who show income of more than 1 crore, so many So you will find your greater class in South Extension, where you will find so many people in South Delhi, how will the government address that and how will it address unemployment, for me this is just a matter of concern, so as Prashant ji said that the ease of doing business which he has repeatedly mentioned, there might be something like this in it and I will read it if I understand something like this, if I see some of it further, I see some trailer of it, then maybe I will change my mind as of now, this is my view, fair point Mr.
Kedia, Prashant, let me come to you, the one big positive with regard to one budget is concern, and was they can be change makers for the next three, four, five years, for example, the CAPES announced in the 2021 budget, you can still see the kind of traction, the kind of push, the kind of tail wind, it has given so many sectors, what do you believe, this budget will give in terms of sectoral tail wind, there one or two sectors, you feel will Really, change over the next one to two years, I think, will happen in more than one or two sectors.
I think this budget is generally positive. Either you look at some big positive announcements for one or two sectors, or if there is improvement across the board, then that is a very big deal. I often said that India needs something like that. Either you consider doing a big surgery or you consider that that is one big surgery.
And the government is talking about introducing a new income tax bill. You know, in India, you talk about ease of doing business. What makes it difficult to do business in India is that so many rules and regulations are written and they are written in such a way that it is very difficult to understand them.
After understanding them, implementing them and working under them is very difficult. So, if you listen to the comments of the FM, the government has written that the new income tax bill, I think he said that if I hear right, half of the clauses will be removed from it. Then he said that the new bill would be Clear, simple to understand, provide tax certainty, what else do businessmen need?
If they see right now, the new tax bill will come in a week, as the Finance Minister said, but if they indeed deliver on this, this is a huge deal. The tax bill is the biggest of the regulatory and legal bills in the whole of the government. Right, if you are massively simplifying it, clear, simple to understand and provide certainty, then it is a huge step forward.
Obviously, the fine print is just an announcement, we will see when it comes, but I have no reason to doubt what the Finance Minister has said at this point in time. And many other things, small things, have been done. I wish a lot more could be done. Always, you know, hope is always very high, but like they criminalize 100% additional loss, today businessmen will have to face any investor like Kedia ji or I am afraid that they will have to face so many losses.
There are all the rules and regulations that if by mistake they get violated, what will be their consequences and every businessman is very scared of this, decriminalizing harassment is very important, absolutely sir, absolutely sir and maybe some structure of this will come in the new tax bill, I doubt there will be a change in the slab because that has been announced now in the budget, it will be more of improving the you know ease of filing taxes extra, but before we let's of understanding that what the code is saying, yes that we will wait to see, that we will wait to see for sure, but before we let's Prashant Khemka and Vijay Kedia go as promise Kedia ji, you are saying that it will take some more time for the market, but one view from your side, one shayari and then of course Prashant will join in, so two lines which are coming to my mind right now are that there is little, there is need for little, this life, still it is beautiful here, this is like this Vijay, it was not original but it will do for today, for the moment I mean, I know the talent that he possesses, this was a bit underwhelmed, very very nice, very nice, but it would have been good if Kidiya ji comes next time, we sing one song each, but come on, since you had said that we will listen to him as well, then we also listen to Khemka ji, right, what is his opinion, definitely, definitely, so Kidiya ji, if you permit me, I have thought of a couplet inspired by Kabir Das ji and have actually written it just now, although I had been thinking about it for many days, everyone should invest in the boom, no one should invest in the recession, no one should invest in the boom, no one should invest in the recession, the one who invests in the recession also, only he gets the boom, what bye claps claps around claps around, nowadays the market has fallen by 10-15, due to which people are very scared of recession, so that's why I thought, a couplet of Kabir ji came to my mind timely, it is inspired by something related, no, no, what right now, Kabir Das's reverse words, barse kambal bheege paani, dis dis dis, is the top Of was what a day what a day and what a way to close out this session are about what no minutes to go I should thank them before that I will try a copy but the copy is a copy sorry someone has a saying I think Rakesh ji has a saying that you can get Taj Mahal for 25 paise only when you do n't have 25 paise in your pocket so just try it out Prashant Khemka said right that no one can invest in bull and bear market but you will get Taj Mahal for 25 paise only when you don't have 25 paise which effectively said that only then go and invest then you will get gains as much as Taj Mahal so Neeraj you will get there to their level no no this is not my level but it will take some time no no baba this is not my level this is from Rakesh ji and one more thing reminded me of what you said when I was there then Hari was not there when Hari is not there I am not there Prem Gali ati Sakri ja me two na samahi this is another level this This is how a special Saturday session should end.
Working not weekly. Having fun doing it. Thank you so much Vijay Keya ji. Prashantham ji. Bahut bahut Shukr na. Thank you. Jan Karve is a pleasure.
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