저자: JerryRomine · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 7,500 돌파 후에도 베이징 협상·중동 리스크로 변동성이 크다고 경고. 기관 지표(NAAIM)가 하락하며 전문가들이 매도 중이라 주장. 메모리 공급 부족(2027년까지 매진)을 근거로 마이크론 강세를 주장하고, 한국 메모리주(삼성전자·SK하이닉스)와 DRAM ETF, EWY를 추천. 마이크론 보유 유지, 조정 시 매수 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
So, the S&P 500 recently hit 7,500. We've got news from the Beijing Summit that's looking promising, and everyone is acting like we just crossed the finish line of the bull market. But, if you've been watching the news lately, you know the Beijing story and the situation in the Middle East have been flip-flopping more than a fish on land just trying to find the water.
One day, it's a trade truce. The next day, it's more tension. And the day after that, oil is bouncing around 100 bucks a barrel. It's hard to build a high conviction thesis when the ground is moving under your feet every 5 minutes. If you're feeling a little bit uneasy about this breakout, I get it because something behind the scenes isn't adding up.
We've all been there where the screen is green, but your gut is telling you that the smart money is already looking for the exit door. You see the headlines, you want to believe the hype, but you're worried about getting trapped at the top of a new cycle that could change by the time you wake up tomorrow morning.
The reality is, most people are holding stocks right now that they couldn't actually defend if you asked them why they bought them. They're just following the momentum, hoping that the next headline is as good as the last one. But, that's how you get shaken out by the noise, and that's why so many investors are feeling that pressure right now.
. Look, I'm not some permabear or permabull who hates this market. You guys know Nvidia is one of my largest personal positions, and it's been a massive win for the portfolio. But, a big part of my job is staying honest about the data so we can find the next leg of this relay race. Nvidia has been the king of the logic trade, but we have to be looking for the next multi-bagger while everyone else is still fighting over the leftovers.
While the retail crowd is cheering for the S&P 7,500 milestone, the institutional pros are actually doing the opposite. They use an indicator from the National Association of Active Investment Managers. It's a mouthful, so let's just call it the name indicator. Basically, it's a simple way to see if the big money managers are actually buying this rally or not.
Right now, the name indicator is a massive red flag. It's dropping while prices hit record highs, which means the pros are quietly selling their shares to the public. The problem is that most people are chasing the surface level headlines. They see the news about Nvidia shipping H200 chips to China, and they think it's a green light to buy everything in sight.
But, they're ignoring the shadow anxiety that's building up underneath with $100 oil and rising cost. We've all made the mistake of treating a long-term position like a day trade because we don't have a solid anchor. We see a headline, we panic, or we get greedy, and we forget that the real money is made in the supply chain bottlenecks, not the media buzz.
You can feel yourself doing it, checking the news every hour, letting the flip-flopping headlines dictate your stress level. I've done this myself, and it's the fastest way to lose your conviction. We saw this play out perfectly with Micron. My patrons know that I called this one back on April 15th when MU was sitting at $431.
I remember the thesis write-up because we were looking at the physical bottleneck while the rest of the world was distracted by software hype. I want to show you this comment from Jimbo, one of the guys in our community. He saw my thesis, did his own work, and captured a massive profit as Micron nearly doubled to $818 in just about a month.
We nailed that one because we looked at the math of the supply chain instead of the noise of the news cycle. Some people look at a chart like Micron today and say, "It's too high. It's overextended. I'm tapping out." And I get it. Looking at a vertical line is scary, but you have to think about the bigger picture here.
When there is literally no supply of a critical asset for the next 1 to 2 years, what has to happen to the price? It's the simple law of supply and demand, something even a fifth grader can understand. Right now, the demand for AI memory is on fire, but there is no new supply coming online for a long time.
When you have a monopoly on something the whole world needs, you get to name your price. Micron isn't just selling chips anymore. They are selling the oxygen that the AI revolution needs to breathe. While everyone is fighting over which AI app is going to win, I'm focused on the companies that are already sold out through 2027.
If you're looking at the chart and saying it's too high, you're missing the fact that these companies have essentially become high margin utilities. And when there's no supply, the Micron monopoly gets to name their price. That's a fundamentally different story than just chasing a hype-filled headline.
This is exactly why serious investors focus on why I own it, rather than just chasing a vertical line on a chart. In my Patreon community, we move past the headlines to track the actual supply chain and thesis development in real time. It's where the conversation continues after the video ends, and where I post my own trades as they happen.
You can find a link in the description if you're ready to see how professional operator handles a no supply monopoly. Let's get back to why the Korean market is the actual macro hack for this cycle. This is where things get interesting. Most people only look at US stocks, but the real power players in this memory super cycle are actually over in South Korea.
I'm talking about SK Hynix and Samsung. They are the secret bosses of the AI world. SK Hynix is the one that actually provides the fuel for Nvidia's most advanced systems. But, a lot of you don't want to deal with the Korean composite stock price index. If you don't know what that is, just think of it as the South Korean version of Wall Street.
It's just their stock market. It can be a headache to trade directly because of the time zones and the currency exchange. But, you can't ignore these two companies because they are the only ones with a scale to fix the global shortage. I'm going to show you exactly how to play this monopoly on the US markets in just a second.
We found a way to bridge that gap without you needing to stay up all night watching the Korean markets. If you want the cleanest way to capture this memory super cycle without picking individual winners, you have to look at the DRAM ETF. That's D R A M. This is a concentrated way to get right in the middle of the bottleneck.
It owns the big three, Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, and it's been a massive performer since it launched. The other play is EWY, which is the South Korean ETF. This is the ultimate macro hack for this cycle. You're getting two of the world's only trillion-dollar tech giants outside the US at a massive discount compared to the overbought Nasdaq.
Samsung and SK Hynix make up nearly 40% of this fund. While the S&P 500 is struggling with high valuations at 7,500, the Korean market is still attractively priced despite all the growth we've seen. You're buying the memory backbone of the world for a fraction of what you'd pay for US tech. For my personal strategy, I'm treating these as tactical plays.
I'm currently holding my Micron position because the why I own it hasn't changed. The supply is still zero and the demand is still rising. We are looking at the multi-year supercycle here that is just beginning to reflect in the margins. The patient's path, if you're looking at these charts and feeling that FOMO, do not chase the vertical lines.
For Micron, I'd be a buyer on a consolidation back toward the 480 level. For EWY, I'm looking for a pullback to that $185 support area. And for DRAM, the $48 level is where the structural support sits. The next few months are going to be wild. We have $100 oil, flip-flopping news from Beijing, and a market that's hitting record highs while the name indicator tells us the pros are stepping away.
The tension between the price and the reality is at an all-time high. If the Beijing rally fizzles out or if inflation keeps pushing higher, the only thing that's going to matter is who owns the assets that the world actually needs. You have to decide if you want to follow the hive or follow the physical bottleneck.
The scarcity is real, but so is the macro risk. We've seen what happens when the supply hits zero. We saw it with the Micron win, and we're seeing it with the secret bosses in Korea. The question isn't whether the AI revolution is real, it's whether you're positioned in the right part of the chain when the music finally stops.
When the supply chain hits a wall like the one we are seeing in AI memory, it is no longer just about the stock price. It's about having the conviction to hold through the noise. That is exactly what we focus on in my Patreon community. It's a group of investors who are looking past the daily headlines to find the structural choke points in the global market.
We're seeing the results of this process every day. Invincible is using this thesis-driven approach to stay anchored, currently sitting at 14% year-to-date while managing an $826,000 account with total clarity. And Jungle just hit their entire goal for the year, up over 19% by focusing on repeatable systems rather than hero trades.
If you want to see every trade I take, the reasoning behind it, and how I'm managing risk as this cycle develops, the link is in the description. It is where the real work happens after the YouTube video ends. If you made it this far, you are clearly looking for the truth behind the bottleneck. Drop no new supply in the comments. Tribe check. Only the investors who understand scarcity survive the flip-flop.
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