저자: RayDalio/HowardMarks · 외국인
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2020년 투자 전망: 두 대가 모두 현 시장을 낙관하기 어렵다고 보며, 분산·글로벌 자산배분과 방어적 태도를 권함. 레이 달리오: 현금은 쓰레기(cash is trash)라고 주장. 향후 몇 년간 정부의 화폐 발행(프린팅)과 달러 가치 하락 가능성이 크므로 현금 비중을 줄이고 글로벌 분산 투자, 일정량의 금 보유를 권함. 하워드 막스: 지난 11년간 강세장이 이어졌고 주가는 이익이 아닌 유동성 주도로 상승했다고 진단. 확률적으로 투자자에게 유리한 구간은 아니며, 3~5년 전보다 위험을 줄여야 한다는 입장. 대폭락을 단정하지는 않음. 워런 버핏 사례 언급: 약 1280억 달러(포트폴리오의 약 15%)를 현금으로 보유하고 있어, 시장 하락 시 매수 여력을 확보하는 전략으로 소개됨. 달리오와 막스의 방어적 관점과 연결됨. 종목·지수 직접 언급: 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 미국 주식시장 전반의 강세 지속 여부에 대한 경고 수준의 언급만 있음. 리스크 및 조건: 이란 적대 행위, 경기침체 가능성, 하이일드 스프레드 등 신용 리스크 언급. 결론적으로 달리오·막스 모두 리스크 관리와 분산을 강조. 출연자 전망: 달리오는 달러 약세·통화 팽창을, 막스는 강세장 후반 확률 악화를 전망. 두 사람 모두 단기 방향을 확정적으로 예측하지는 않음.
다듬은 글
it's 2020 and there are a number of people either retired or saving for a deposit on a house that have a lot of cash in their bank account and these people are quite upset because the interest rates are so low last year on a term deposit for example something like 2.8 5% was the rate and this year it's 1.75 percent at the same time in 2019 the top 300 companies went up over 20% the top 300 Australian companies and so people are thinking would we get out of our bank accounts and put it into the Australian stock market or where do we put our money on this channel we won't give recommendations about what to do with your money we will simply educate you by looking at some of the best investors in the world and seeing exactly what they're up to and what they're thinking then we'll leave it to you if you'd like to see a financial adviser for your circumstances or if you'd like to just see someone who can give you general investment help I can help you put you in touch with someone there - now let's start with very Gallio he was the founder of Bridgewater associates it's the largest hedge fund in the world and let's see what he has to say about the current market environment we had David Tepper had texted into the show on on Friday and suggested right now that you have to be in the market for long and so the question is whether everybody jumps on the train everybody gets in for long and then the problem arises there's much likelihood then the mind you jump off the train but also the question is what do you jump into what right you jump off the train and the issue is you you can't jump into cash cash is trash okay cash is that they're going to because they're gonna print money it we could all what do you do you get out okay so cash is not gonna do what do you do so what you have to do is you have to have a well diversified portfolio and first of all you you have to be global and you have to have balance and I think like it you know I don't want to grab well the headlines gonna be again anyway is I think that you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio or you have to have something that's hard there are three monetary systems that happen the first isn't in the old days it had intrinsic value to carry around gold coins and they and then we come up with the idea banks or even central banks and what they do is they create certificates write call notes that are claims on those things and we put many more certificates than there is money in the bank and then that's a linked system and we so we did that and we broke that in 1971 then you have a monitor a Fiat monetary system which means that you can print whatever amount of money you want and you can put that and that's what governments do so we're in that part of the cycle bigger picture so that when you think about things the depreciation of the exchange rate and the printing of money I think over the next few years is gonna be the biggest Ray Dalio saying cash is trash you know that's a hard concept for us to think about when we think cash is safe but what he's saying is that he's expecting there to be money printing in the future in the u.s.
if there's a problem or a downturn and so he expects that if you have a lot of US dollars that then you lose value your US Dollars are a less powerful and less valuable so he doesn't like the idea of US dollars he's calling it trash and he's saying it's better to be well diversified or to go global or to even have some gold potentially that's right let's have a look at Howard Marks he is the founder of oaktree capital which is a big credit fund in the u.s.
let's see what Howard has to say about the current environment you see Howard that one of your strengths as an investor is knowing how to think about the future probabilistically effectively evaluating the odds against available information Howard I want you to think probabilistically we've started a new year we've started a new decade does now strike you as a good time to be investing I would say probabilistically it is not because if you look we've been the markets been up for 11 years it's quite Drupal Duff the low we're in the longest bull market the longest expansion in history profits are not rising stock prices are it's it's what we call a liquidity driven rally that means that it comes from people having a lot of money to spend if you put those factors together it doesn't mean that the market is going to go down tomorrow but it does mean that the odds are not in my opinion in the investors favor is that to say that now is the time Howard to be a contrarian because as we both know the economy is growing at a reasonable clip forecasters say the odds of a recession in 2020 have declined stocks as we witnessed last week brushed off right the threat of Iranian hostilities and surged to a new record and of course high-yield spreads keep edging closer and closer to a new post crisis low right yes well the way I would phrase it Eric is that this is a time to have less risk than you did three or five years ago you know three or five years ago we were here and now we're here all things being equal if we're here we should have less risk than here and I don't know what's whether we're going to go over the cliff tomorrow or continue straight up to the sky but the odds are less in the investors favor in my opinion than they were three or five years ago Howard Marks from oaktree capital he talks in probabilities he does this because he knows that no one knows exactly when things are going to go up or down or sideways and so everything's a probability he says that the odds are less in the investors favor now because the most previous history things have gone higher now again he also says that he doesn't know things could even go even higher but he's just talking from a probabilistic lead point of view and his own opinion really he's saying it's best probably to be a bit more defensive now what defensive means he doesn't go into however if you think of Warren Buffett last year Warren Buffett being a very famous investor in the US as well he had 128 billion dollars in cash in his portfolio now that makes up around 15% of his total portfolio so Warren I don't like Ray Dalio feels like cash is quite important to cash around and the reason is if the market was to fall down that Warren would have then the cash to be able to buy things at that point so there are different opinions among some of the best investors in the world and if they're having a hard time understanding what's going on we're definitely going to be having a hard time understanding what's going on so you think to yourself what do you think is going to happen in 2020 maybe what's gonna happen up until 2025 in a five-year period and will it be different make sure you're feeling comfortable with where you're at and if you would like some advice I can put you in touch with a low-cost provider of advice about $200 to get some simple advice or go see a financial adviser and get them to look at your full situation and help you in that way this channel is simply educational we look at what's happening in the world break it down and put it out there for you guys to understand if you'd like more information have a look at the interviews I'll put the full interviews in the comments below and I will see you in the next video
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