CoronaVirus Crashes Market. What about Gold? | Warren Buffett vs. Ray Dalio

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코로나19 우려로 미국 증시가 3월 첫째 주 크게 하락(다우 약 13%), 금 선물은 상승. 영상은 금의 역할에 대한 두 대가의 상반된 견해를 교육 목적으로 정리하며 특정 매수 추천은 하지 않음. 레이 달리오: 금은 포트폴리오 분산 자산으로 전체의 약 5~10% 보유를 권장. 달러 기반 부채와 브레턴우즈 이후 달러 체제에 대한 리스크 헤지 용도로 설명. 워런 버핏: 금은 생산성 없는 자산으로 장기적으로 농지·주식(생산적 자산)에 뒤처진다고 주장. 다만 화폐가치 하락 우려 자체는 옳다고 인정. Meb Faber 연구 인용: 닷컴 버블 때 상위 500개 기업 약 40% 하락 시 금 약 27% 상승, 글로벌 금융위기 때 기업 약 50% 하락 시 금 약 18% 상승. 다만 2008년 10월 한 달 금은 16% 하락해 '주식 하락=금 상승'은 규칙이 아니라고 설명. 결론: 금에 대한 시각은 엇갈리며 시청자가 직접 판단해야 함. 채널은 조언을 하지 않는 교육 목적이라고 명시.

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01. breaking news concerns over the coronavirus outbreak and once again they are affecting the stock market look at that right there wall street ending one of the worst weeks of trading since the financial crisis in 2008 the u.s stock market last week decided that the coronavirus is finally here the dell 30 companies 30 big us companies fell from over 29,000 points to just over 25 000 points that's down about 13% while at the same time the gold futures went up about 1.3% today we're going to talk about gold we're going to talk about what some of the best investors think of that precious metal and something to consider potentially in your portfolio we don't recommend anything we don't recommend gold or anything like that but we're going to do some education and explain some of the things pros and cons of gold in a portfolio let's start by listening to ray dalio on what he thinks of gold you recommend that most portfolios should contain some gold wow of course why a lot of people think it's not of course in fact it doesn't make sense well first of all to structure a portfolio the best way to structure a portfolio is to have the right kind of balance in your portfolio so and some amount of gold, gold serves a purpose it is first of all a diversifier against other assets um you know we have this risk on risk off thing we have we also have a monetary system uh we have a the bretton woods monetary system began after world war II and it had the dollar as the world's reserve currency um there's a risk there there's a a lot of dollar denominated debt and so on if somebody that felt that they didn't want to hold that and so on you could have exposures to that so it's a diversifying asset in that is sensible and and you know that's the main reason to have gold in the portfolio five to ten percent ray dalio talks about a risk on risk off situation stocks rising when the risk is on and stocks falling when the risk is off potentially going into things like cash or bonds or potentially something like gold he talks about a scenario where there's a lot of U.S.

02. dollar debt in the world and that one day if people don't want to hold US dollars anymore for whatever reason money printing or whatever it is that they will then sell us dollars and potentially go into something else something potentially like gold he talks about diversifying a portfolio to give it the best chance so that if there's a big downturn Meb Faber of Cambria Investments did a research topic on this and he looked at the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis in the dot-com bubble he looked at the fact that the top 500 companies fell over 40 while at the same time gold rose over 27 in the global financial crisis that the top 500 companies fell over 50 and gold rose 18 now there's no rule to say that when stocks fall gold rises not at all in fact that october 2008 in that one month alone gold fell 16% so the idea is more about diversifying it's not about some rule that down stocks means up gold and so it is a very controversial topic is gold and let's listen to what warren buffett has to say on the subject decent productive asset is going to kill a non-productive asset over time i will guarantee you that farmland over 100 years is going to be gold and so are equities why do you think gold bugs get so irate because they really come out yeah it's very interesting if you if you go on cnbc and say that bonds are kind of a poor investment you know people don't get mad at you you don't even hear from the treasury i mean you can you can knock almost any investment and people may get a little irritated but when you talk about gold uh and of course that says something about about their motivations for ownership they want people to agree with them they want people everybody they want everybody to get so scared they run to a cave with gold and caves maybe might be a better investment than gold i mean at least they're not producing more caves all the time so they want they want people to be as afraid as they are because that's that's what's going to produce an increase in prices incidentally they're right to be afraid of paper money i mean they they have a very their basic premise that paper money around the world is going to get worth less and less and less over time is absolutely correct but you just disagree with the investment theory beyond that yeah yeah where they run from that and and they should run from it uh is where in my view they make the mistake but they have a correct basic premise warren buffett talks about productive assets and non-productive assets productive assets being farm land where things are produced and sold whether it's companies like apple or google or microsoft or any other company that makes something general motors and cars producing things he says they're better assets than for example non-productive assets like gold that just sit there and look pretty and don't actually make you any money at the end of the day historically gold has been seen as a store of value where people put their money just as savings but not as a way of making a lot of money it's more about just saving money it's not so much that gold is going to make you a lot but potentially if fiat currencies things like Australian dollars or US dollars and warren says that over time people have a right to be afraid of fiat currencies in that they will devalue over time and lose value so the premise of gold makes sense but he says there's better things out there than gold he doesn't think gold's very good himself now we've heard different opinions from ray dalio gold being a good diversifier from warren buffett as gold not being as good as other things now it's up to you to think and to learn and to understand what you think about gold and your own perspective of that we don't give any advice on this channel it's purely educational if you do want some sort of advice you can click the link below and it will give you some advice on balanced and diversified portfolios and you can go from there as well otherwise i'm going to see you in the next video