저자: Jonna · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 엔비디아·AMD·테슬라 모두 단기적으로 약세 패턴 우위이며, 특히 테슬라는 조정 가능성이 크다는 진행자의 기술적 판단. 엔비디아: 일봉상 20일선 위 종가이나 50일·200일선은 아래라 약한 흐름. 19,154 갭 메우기 후 반등했고, 큰 음봉 저항(약 200달러 부근) 돌파 여부와 거래량 확인이 필요하다고 봄. 엔비디아 주봉: 큰 인사이드바 형성, 20일선 위 유지 중. 몇 주간 횡보하면 하락 세팅, 추세선·페넌트 라인 돌파 후 큰 음봉 위로 올라서면 상승 전환 가능성. 엔비디아 월봉·향후 전망: 월봉 지지선이 하락을 막고 있으며, 해당 지지를 이탈하면 손절 후 하락 대기가 낫다는 입장. 진행자는 592 부근, 569 부근에서 롱 진입 의향을 밝힘. 99~100달러대 하락 가능성도 언급. AMD: 일봉상 20일선은 지켰으나 50일·200일선 아래 약세. 1,086 돌파 실패 후 1,054까지 반등했고, 향후 하락 패턴 우려. 주봉·월봉에서도 약세 구조이나 월봉 이평선이 지지 중. 20일선 이탈 시 하락 경계. 테슬라: 5일 상승 후 조정. 20일선 종가 하회, 50일선 부근에서 지지 시도 중. 주봉 기준 351 부근 저항, 318~323·311 지지 언급. 하락 시 307~313 추가 하락 가능, 주봉 기준 245·244 부근 강한 매수 구간으로 제시. 240 부근 돌파 시 추가 하락 가능성. 테슬라 옵션: 2019년 1월 360 콜옵션 보유, 약 50% 수익 중이며 추가 하락 시 청산 예정이라고 언급. 숏 풋 전략 수익 언급. 리스크: 뉴스·실적 등 이벤트에 따라 급등락 가능, 진행자 스스로 방향성 불확실성 인정. 출연자 전망 요약: 엔비디아·AMD 단기 약세 경계, 테슬라 245~244 부근 매수 관심, 전반적 조정 우려.
다듬은 글
Hello traders, Jonna here. Let's start with the daily chart for NVIDIA. It's down 0.32% today, about 62 cents, but what a day it was. At one point it was down a couple of bucks. We filled the gap here at 191.54, bounced up off that nice little scalp, retraced back to near the lows, and then it took off. Something happened there. Bottom line, someone needed to get this thing above 195, and that's exactly what they did.
Going back to the daily, in the last videos we've been talking about how the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are still blue, below the price, so it's a little weak. It closed right on top of the 20-day here, slightly micro bullish, but in a macro bearish setting. It's above that $200 level, and there's this big red bar, then another red bar, and then a gap fill up here. There are some big red bars with volume, so you'll need more than this to get through them. Watch for volume, and watch whether it keeps making higher lows right here, because that's the next line it has to hold. So far so good, no problems, but it's a little bit of a weak standstill, still at the highs with a slightly bearish pattern.
On the weekly, it's still above the 20-week MA, and the trend line we connected to the lows is still holding, so that's okay. But now you have a big inside bar on the weekly. Let's see if it goes sideways for another couple of weeks, setting up to go lower. Or it could go another couple of weeks and then start popping up, going through these trend lines or pennant lines, getting above this red bar. Look at the volume on the weekly, too. Where it's trying to go up, the volume isn't even close to what we had before. So keep an eye on this one. If it stays above the 20-week MA and keeps consolidating sideways, we'll check it at next Friday's close, after the holiday season.
Right now, NVIDIA is just developing a pattern. It's slightly bearish until it gets above this number and this line, and then you'll be more on the bullish side because you're above the moving averages. These stocks have been doing this: going down, chop chop chop, and next thing you know it shoots up. If volume stays light, we'll probably end up in this choppy zone. As long as it stays above this trend line and above 191.54, we're doing okay, and that's the gap fill. Volume was okay today, nothing crazy, a little lighter the last couple of days. It's been chopping around, but keep an eye on it. If the SPY, IWM, QQQ, and the major indexes start to sell off, this one will head lower too, as will the others we're covering today.
Next is AMD. It popped above this area, and there's a great bearish pattern down in here. Volume got lighter and it's been chopping around the 98.9 area. Let's see if it develops toward possible lower prices. Right before that, they popped it up to get everyone excited. I think there was news that day. We got above the 108.6 area but couldn't confirm it, held, held, held today. It had a nice down move and then a pop up, but look what it did. Just like NVIDIA, it filled the gap and boom, right back up. The gap was at 102.8, we went to 105.4, and we still closed above the 20-day MA, so we're trying to get the bulls on board and get more people to buy it.
Right now it's still slightly bearish. It's still below the 50-day and 200-day, so it's in a weak stance. We're holding the 20-day, but we're not above this big red bar yet. It needs to get above that red bar and continue up toward the 50-day, and there's a lot of resistance over here. Next week is a shortened holiday week, four days of trading I believe. Let's see what it does on the weekly close. As long as it holds the 20-day, it should be okay. If it slips under that on a daily close, it could come back and retest the 108.9 or 98.9 area, around the 100 dollar mark. Watch for that. On the weekly, the 98.9 level is the big pivot, with another around 94.8 that would be the next support area. There's a little doji candle and a bit of a retrace, and it never closed above 108.4, it came right back in. Let's see where it goes next week, with the holidays, the new year, Christmas, and Hanukkah. I think Hanukkah is over now. Just watch this one. It's still below the 20-week and 50-week on the weekly, and it made a nice inside bar with a retrace. It couldn't stay above that area, so this is setting up for lower prices unless we get news or earnings. Maybe it just sits here until earnings and then gets a pop. But look, it's starting to break this trend line on top and bottom. Let's see if the 98.9, 94.0, 84.8 area holds. If it doesn't, I still think we could come down somewhere around 60, 70, 80 dollars, and 82.8 for sure. If it comes down into the 59.2 area, I'll be going long NVIDIA right around 56.9 if we get there. Just keep an eye on this one.
On the monthly, there's great support here too, and that's what's holding it up. If it drops below the 20-month and 200-month MAs, you'd better stop out and let it come lower, then you could go long again eventually. Clear the market, sell, and that would exaggerate the move as well. So AMD is on the weaker side. It was a nice pop and drop that got everybody a little excited, but we're still holding the 20, which is key, and we didn't get below the gap window. Let's keep an eye on it going into next week and reevaluate on Friday's close.
Now Tesla. We talked about this before: getting above the moving averages and above this little pivot around 324 was good, and it went to the 50% retrace but couldn't keep going. It was a nice 5-day push up, and four days of decent consolidation followed. If it goes a couple more days, it could definitely start popping, and then you're looking at the 362 to 365 area. Right now it's a little weak. It closed below the 200-day MA and is at the bottom of this pivot, this little red candle. What to watch is whether it gaps down on Monday, or whether the support from the moving averages holds it up and pushes it back to keep it going. I don't know why it was moving up over the semi-truck news. I want to see a short-term retrace to find where the next support is, around 318, 323, and 311. We'll see if it holds the 20-day and 50-day. If it does, we'll see if it cuts through and moves into the 313 and 307 area, and you'd better watch out, it could crack and go lower. It's been a high flyer for a long time. I drew a Fib from this area down to this one, and we're trying to hold the 50-day, which has been great support. We went right through it, so let's see what pattern develops. Right now it's just a retrace and another retrace coming to the downside after a pretty good move. Let's see what we get in the next week's shortened sessions. I think Monday is off for Christmas, and then we'll see where it goes by Friday's close.
On the weekly, we talked about this one. We needed to see some follow-through and close above the 20-week MA. We did not, and it came right back in. We said if it closed around 350 or 351, it would be a little more bullish. It didn't; it came right back in, which is exactly what happened. It's still inside this bar, with resistance up in this bar, especially around 349 to 350. That's pretty much where I expected a pullback the following week. This week it closed right below the 50-week MA, heading toward the 50% retrace at 6.8 and the 50-week down at 315.73. Tesla was down 1.95%, $6.46 today, which was okay. 2% isn't crazy, but it almost engulfed the whole candle, which tells me you probably want lower prices coming in the near future. We'll see if it clicks, goes sideways, and then maybe makes the next leg down, or if we get follow-through below this 50-week next week. Then I think we can see more downside. I'd love to see it come down to 245 or 244, that would be a good area, but it has to come straight down into it. If it gets some follow-through, look at it again, because how it falls into this area will determine whether it bounces or sets up a new pattern. This level will determine the bounce. I love the double bottom here and the 200-day MA, and there's a trend line around 240. If it pierces and comes in, boom, probably another retrace and another leg down.
So keep an eye on Tesla. If you're bullish, tighten your stops. This one can tear heads off for bulls or bears, or it can do nothing for a while, or go up and down 50 points in a week on some news. The area I was looking at is 242 to 243. If it comes right into that, it would be a pretty good area to buy. But look at these moves: straight up, straight down, over and over. We'll see where it ends up and what pattern it gives us into next week, the end of the year, and the monthly close, which is very important for these stocks too.
We wrote some calls on Tesla up in here, and so far we're up a little over 50% on them. We're about to cut them. Hopefully we get a little more downside next week, and then we'll cut those off and be done. They expire January 19th, the 360 strikes. I think we picked them up around 5.50 or right in there. I think they hit two bucks today, or $1.90 or something, so we're doing okay on that one. We covered a couple of trades today too, and we're doing okay for the rest of the year, or at least the end of the year.
That's it for today, the weekend update on Tesla, AMD, and NVIDIA. I hope you enjoy these videos, and I hope I'm helping some people see where these stocks may go, like Tesla until I saw a pattern develop. I want to see higher prices. Sorry about that, guys, a little phone call there. At the end of the video, we had a really good year at StockBookie. Let's keep this going. We've been playing the short calls and short puts, and that's been really killing it lately. Again, this is the weekend update on Tesla, AMD, and NVIDIA. Hopefully this is helping some people.
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