저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시와 거시 환경에 대한 Raamdeo Agrawal의 인터뷰. 외국인 자금 유출 배경과 최근 반전 흐름. 외국인 포트폴리오 자금이 최근 2년간 큰 폭 유출(6~7개월간 약 3~3.5 lakh crore 매도)됐고, 지정학(이란·유가), AI 스토리 부재 등이 원인이다. 최근 1주간 외국인 시각이 인도에 우호적으로 바뀌는 추세 전환이 관찰된다. 지정학 전개는 예측 불가라고 강조. 성장 동력 섹터: 자동차(Mahindra, Tata, Maruti 7월 판매 20~50% 증가), GST 수입 6월 15.5% 증가(세율 28→18% 인하에도). 신용 성장 약 18%로 경기 회복 양호. 통화정책 및 금리 전망: 2025년 대비 현재 통화정책이 완화적이며 대출 성장이 9~10%에서 17~18%로 상승. 단기 인플레 대응을 위해 신용 성장 둔화 조치 가능성 언급. 미 10년물 금리 4.6~4.7%로 상승, 인도 자본비용 50bp 상승은 성장률을 크게 해치지 않는다고 판단. 투자 스타일: 현금흐름과 고성장을 겸비한 우량주 선호, 가치·모멘텀·현금흐름 등 스타일은 각자 상황에 맞게 선택. 채권 지수 편입: 블룸버그 글로벌 지수 편입이 연기됐으며 세제 변화의 지속성 확인 목적의 신중함으로 해석, 관찰 목록에 있으나 인도 채권시장은 개선 중. RBI MPC: 루피 96~97 수준의 변동성 속에서 미 금리 동결을 감안하면 기존 궤적 유지 가능성 시사. 향후 10년 시장은 지난 10년만큼 좋거나 더 좋을 것이라 낙관. 리스크: 이란 사태, 유가, 루피 변동성, 지정학 전개.
다듬은 글
You know, geopolitical circumstances have changed the entire trajectory of Indian markets and global markets. My first question to you, sir: Do Indian stock valuations need to adjust due to the suspension of global fixed income flows? Yes, in fact, over the past two years we have already lost a lot of foreign portfolio capital.
That is, they worked completely on the outflow, especially this year. Almost the speed is around three, three and a half lakhs which they sold in 6-7 months. So it's clear that a lot of capital left the country, and this happened for many reasons. I mean internal assessment, the successes of other markets, the fact that the story with artificial intelligence is not happening in India.
So a lot of these things existed, apart from the geopolitical ones. Geopolitics is putting pressure on India's currency situation due to high oil prices, etc. So all of this led to what we have today. Yes, this is an ongoing trend and we are seeing that over the last week there is actually a trend reversal where foreign investors are looking at India more favorably, maybe they have sold too much.
So this is the situation now. Only time will tell how geopolitics will develop. Who knows what will happen in Iran, what will happen to oil prices. So we will get through this, everything will pass. Yes. You talked about foreign investment flows, that the last couple of years there has been a greater outflow, and recently the trend has changed towards India.
But I want to understand from you, since you have been watching the market very closely, which two or three domestic corporate sectors do you think will lead the growth engine of India in the next decade , given that they need to be independent of global diplomacy. Yes, look, in the manufacturing sector, the automotive industry will be one of the largest sectors.
You can see even today the numbers coming in for July. Volumes have increased by 20-50% at large manufacturers such as Mahindra&Mahindra, Tatas, Maruti; These are impressive figures. You must have seen the GST collection for June. What you get on August 1 is the figures for June, so the June figures increased by 15.5% despite the reduction of GST from 28 to 18%.
So I think the domestic economy is thriving. I would say that there is a good recovery in the economy, and the credit inflow is around 18%. So, against this backdrop, we feel pretty good, except for the currency situation, which is somewhat volatile due to oil prices and geopolitical events. But this too shall pass .
I mean, we should act like a cricketer or a baseball player, focusing on the next step; Similarly, in managing the economy, we must stay focused in order to develop further and ensure that the geopolitical situation does not get out of control. You mentioned domestic influence, and recently Finance Minister Sitharaman was in Mumbai and pointed out one thing: we cannot blame the entire inflation on the geopolitical situation alone.
There are also internal factors, and we need to work proactively with these sectors, that is, take precautionary measures. Immediate, yes. So what is your opinion on this? Yeah, I don't know what she meant , but let's see what happens next. Maybe they will take some monetary measures, monetary tightening or something like that, because I see that monetary policy is a little bit looser now than last year.
For example, last year lending growth was at 9-10%. We currently have about 17-18% growth. So when there is this kind of stimulus to demand, inflation usually rises for a while as the system gets used to less lending . I think if so, they might have to slow down credit growth to control inflation in the short term.
This is about the impact of the cost of capital. How do you think higher domestic borrowing costs due to higher bond yields will affect India's investment cycle? Yes. We are currently witnessing a global rise in the cost of capital, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond exceeding 4.6-4.7%, but this has also occurred against the backdrop of the crisis in Iran.
So if we believe that the Iranian crisis is a long-term one, then it is obvious that events in the US will affect us, as they set the trend for the entire world. We, of course, have to take this into account and perhaps prepare for a slightly higher cost of capital than we have now. But in India, a 50 basis point increase in the cost of capital, in my opinion , will not disrupt the growth rate of the Indian economy .
However, we have no idea what else geopolitics has in store for us. We simply have to respond to the situation as it develops. This is the penultimate question I have . In an era of global macroeconomic frictions, should long-term investors favor companies with strong cash flow or aggressive capital allocators?
We want to understand this. Yes. I think investing should be based on what suits you. You know, I personally look for outstanding companies that have both high cash flow and high growth rates, high quality. This is my combination, my favorite niche. But there are players looking for deep value, and there are those who focus on strong momentum and don't look at cash flow, only growth.
There are also those who only look at cash flow, ignoring growth. So there are different styles, you know. It's not about any one approach, you need to assess the situation individually. You probably heard about the latest news from Bloomberg regarding government bonds, they announced a delay. Yes, regarding inclusion.
So is Bloomberg's delay purely operational, or does it reflect broader geopolitical caution about emerging market debt? No, why is this inclusion —is it just an inclusion in the index? Maybe this is an operational moment. They are a little more cautious about whether the tax changes that have been implemented in India are enough.
I mean, are they permanent, and that's why I read in the press that they want to see if it works well. If it works well, they will become part of the Bloomberg Global Index. They say India is on the watch list and while Indian bond markets are improving, they may need a little more time. Yes. Ajan, to conclude the conversation, I want to understand from your perspective, what do you expect from the upcoming meeting of the RBI Monetary Policy Committee ?
Will there be any change in the rate or policy, given that the rupee is fluctuating around the 96-97 mark? Yes. This is a very delicate game for the chairman and the Monetary Policy Committee. I am not an expert in monetary economics . I can't know for sure, but since the US left rates unchanged, I think we will follow the same trajectory.
What is your view on the market in the next decade or in the coming quarters ? Yes, it will be just as good as the last decade, if not better. Thank you for talking to us and taking your valuable time. It was nice to meet you. Thank you. If you liked the video, please like, comment, share, and subscribe.
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