Raamdeo Agrawal: Markets Double Every 5–6 Years — Stay Invested, Stay Patient

요약 보기

글로벌 불확실성 속 국내 성장은 견조해 보이나 경기는 둔화 중. RBI의 예상보다 강한 금리 인하와 정부의 경기 부양 의지로 4~5분기 후 수요 회복 기대. 자동차 등 소비 수요는 현재 부진하며 올해 성장률은 약 5% 수준으로 전망. 하반기 명절 시즌 이후 소비가 살아날 것으로 봄. 시장은 과거 5~6년마다 두 배가 된 사례가 있고 경제 모멘텀·기업이익 개선 여지가 있다고 봄. 다만 밸류에이션은 높은 편. 시장은 실물 경기보다 먼저 움직일 것이라 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. We are seeing continuing global uncertainty and amidst this uh domestic growth seems to be pretty strong. Given that where do you think our markets are headed over the medium and long term Ramde? Yeah. So you know yes economy is a little slow you are seeing in GST numbers also and uh of course the regulators have moved uh at least the RBI has come much stronger than what anybody's expectation was in terms of the quantum of rate cut as well as the pace of CR reduction and also now government's attention is very clearly focused that uh the slowdown has gone too far and uh they need to give back energy to the real economy and but then it takes uh four five quarters to stop the party and it takes another four five quarters to bring the party back in action.

02. So I think yes initiatives have started. I would think that uh after the monsoon the busy season starts and you start with Diwali Dashara and Christmas and all I think that point of time the difference between last year and now will be felt. Hopefully all the fiscal and monetary benefits would play and uh the consumer demand should perk up.

03. That's the expectation. But as of now things are I mean I just come from one of the meetings and there uh uh the managements are saying that it's very very dull particularly automotive side which is a benchmark for a lot of consumer demand whether it is a two-heer uh four-wheeler and uh trucks and all.

04. So they're not seeing I mean they are saying that current year would be plus minus 5% which is not the for a 7% growing economy the number should be more like 10 12% 15%. Which is not there. So hopefully it comes back in second half. Absolutely a good point there and we have seen what is happening for example on Hyundai uh which was for long uh the second largest automaker in India massive listing last year and we've seen uh that uh stock see a pressure of some sorts earlier on account of dipping sales but what kind of index levels are you expecting Mr.

05. Agarwal for the Sensex and Nifty by then you spoke about the the the Sher Diwali season I wouldn't know uh next 5 months 7 months and all but I mean I have been in the market for last 45 years and what I have seen is that every 5 years 6 years anybody in four or six years markets double there is no reason to believe that this is not going to repeat uh we have enough momentum in the economy enough corporate profit to improve uh and multiples are high okay but uh it's not backbreaking also we are going through capital market revolution also the pace at which uh dem demand accounts are happening the amount of interest people have and the the kind of a digital infrastructure we have so I think lot of positives are also there just the economy needs to get some momentum so if it doesn't get in September maybe it'll get in December maybe not this year maybe next year so when you buy for 5 years if you take a 5 year view there'll be one one and a half years bad and three three and a half years good.

06. Uh it's like a when you drive a car, your car moves between 0 and 120. So average is always 60. So yeah, right now it is it is uh the real economy is moving at less than average speed maybe 30 40 50% uh kilometers and I think uh in second half or maybe next year we might see massive acceleration in the real economy.

07. But markets are very smart. The moment you see the first flush of uh uh strengthening of the consumer demand say uh in in two months time 3 months time markets will start moving up much much uh ahead of that. If you like the video do like comment share and subscribe. If you like the video do like, comment, share and subscribe.