저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 보잉은 현재 가치 대비 약간 할인된 수준이며, 90달러 이하로 떨어지면 심층 분석을 하겠다는 관망 입장. 보잉 주가 흐름: 2020년 2월 350달러 중반에서 3월 약 89달러까지 급락, 영상 시점 약 120달러. 마이클 배리 포트폴리오: 2020년 1분기에 보잉을 신규 편입(약 900만 달러, 포트폴리오 상위 6개 종목, 비중 약 10%). 분기 중 최저점 부근 매수로 추정. 아스와스 다모다란 가치평가: 2020년 3월 기준 주당 약 139달러로 평가. 발행사 추가 부채를 반영해 발표자는 주당 약 130달러로 업데이트. 할인율 판단: 현재 120달러는 130달러 대비 8~9% 할인에 불과해 매력도가 낮음. 90달러 기준 약 30~32% 할인이며, 발표자는 보통 약 33% 할인부터 흥미를 느낀다고 언급. 향후 전략: 90달러 이하 하락 시 현재 가치 재평가를 포함한 심층 분석 예정. 현재는 워치리스트 관리. 13F 활용 관점: 대형 투자자의 분기 매수 시점은 해당 분기 저점 근처로 가정 가능하며, 집중 가치투자자일수록 예측 가능성이 높다고 설명. 페이스북도 동일 분기 편입 사례로 언급. 시청자 참여: 매수 여부, 목표가, 보잉 가치 제안에 대한 의견을 댓글로 요청. 간단한 DCF 템플릿 공유 의향 언급. 리스크/조건: 영상은 2020년 3월 팬데믹 충격 직후 항공 섹터 변화를 전제로 한 분석이며, 가치 추정치는 당시 수치 기반.
다듬은 글
what's up guys Brad here so today I want to talk about Boeing stock ok is Boeing a good stock to buy now now Boeing has been on my radar for a while it had a massive fall it was up in the mid 350 s in February and it plunged to about 89 dollars in March now Michael burry you guys remember Michael burry from the movie the big short shorted the housing market back in 2008 made a killing he added Boeing to his portfolio for the first time in the first quarter of 2020 now he added about 9 million dollars worth of Boeing you know which for his portfolio it's one of his top six positions at about 10 percent of the portfolio ok now also Aswath damodaran who is a professor that i follow out of NYU Stern he's a he teaches business valuation at New York University he valued Boeing back in March okay now whenever he does evaluation I am all ears because they are so elaborate he's been doing this for almost 40 years he's written textbooks on valuation and I'll link to his valuation video in the description but so I kind of took his valuation and I give it a little update because we have numbers that have been released for Boeing that the modren didn't have when he did his valuation back in March so the valuation that he came up with was around 139 per share Boeing did add a little bit of debt since then so the value I came up with was a hundred and thirty dollars per share for Boeing stock okay that's the value I came up with now the price now is about a hundred and twenty dollars so you know not super compelling like an eight or nine percent discount burry if Michael burry bought at the bottom in March he could have picked it up around $90 per share okay that's a 25% discount no it's more than that 130 to 90 it's it's about a 30 32 percent discount but he could have picked that up at so you know once for me once you get to about 1/3 off like a 33 percent discount a stock starts to get interesting for me I love if I can pick it up for half price but if I can get it for you know 66 67 percent of value you know I get pretty interested at that price so Boeing is definitely on my watch list now especially considering just three months ago you know it was up at three hundred and fifty dollars per share you know it's almost a third of that now at 120 now I don't put a lot of stock in that nope well pun intended I don't really care how high a stock was trading before because it may have just been you know priced in the clouds you know that that happens with companies I didn't value it back you know in February I looked at the valuation in March and obviously a lot had changed in in the airline sector because we were well into the pandemic in March but at least the end of March so you know value I have it at 1:30 if it starts to dip below I'd say you're probably has a dip below 90 for me to start getting interested but it's definitely on my watch list and if it does go below 90 I'm gonna be doing a more in-depth dive on sort of a current valuation whenever that happens if that does happen if it dips below 90 but you know it this is another stock that came to my attention as a result of you know the 13f filings every quarter we get to see what the best investors in the world have bought in the last quarter and you know Michael burry showed up on that list he he bought Facebook which I thought was interesting that there's actually a number of great investors who picked up some Facebook in the first quarter of 2020 which you know makes a lot of sense to me I think it was down like 160 but you know I'll make it I'll make a video about Facebook in the future but I just wanted to bring Boeing to your attention and you know mention the in-depth valuation from a swath to Mandarin which I will link and the fact that Michael burry the you know Big Short the big short fame is buying has bought Boeing stock so when I see that an investor has bought a stock I like to assume that they got it at the low okay because we don't know we only know that they bought it you know between January 1st and March 31st so I'm assuming he bought around $90 per share and the more you know about these investors and their investment style the more you can kind of get a sense for what they think it's worth based on at what price they bought in and you know you can't apply this to all investors obviously some investors will buy a position merely as a hedge for another position but when you get into the concentrated value investors it's more predictable when when when they buy in you assume they buy in at the low price for that quarter you know it's you have some degree of certainty that they're seeing a fairly large margin of safety in the stock that they bought so you know it really piqued my interest about Boeing stock so I'm gonna keep watching that if any of you guys have thoughts on Boeing if you've bought recently if it's on your watch list you know let me know what you're waiting for if there's a target price you're waiting to hit with before you pull the trigger on Boeing and what you see as the strong value proposition in Boeing moving forward I'm curious to hear from you on those things so yeah that's that's all I got guys valued at 130 I'm waiting for it to get back down to 90 before I do a deeper dive alright guys thanks for being here smash that thumbs up if you like these stock valuation videos and let me know if you want a link to my valuation template simple discounted cash flow valuation template I'd be happy to share that with you guys just leave a comment let me know and I'll you know throw a link to my template in the description okay guys have a great day I'll see you in the next video take care
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