Ken Fisher Examines Where Investor Sentiment Stands Going into 2022

요약 보기

결론: 투자자 심리는 2021년 초 '과열 초입'에서 3~9월 사이 뒷걸음질 쳤고, 아직 과열(euphoria) 단계는 아니므로 강세장이 더 이어질 여지가 있다는 주장. 심리 지표 변화 - 특수목적법인(SPAC) 상장 열풍과 대체불가토큰(NFT), 가상자산 가격 급등이 올해 초 과열 신호였으나 이후 후퇴. - 기관투자자 설문은 연초에는 완만한 상승을 예상했으나 최근에는 연말 주가 하락을 예상하는 쪽으로 바뀜. 기관은 대개 틀리므로 긍정적 신호로 해석. 시장 상황과 공포 요인 - 주식시장은 지난 달까지 급등 후 횡보 중이나, 심리는 낙관 구간으로 들어왔다고 평가. - 아프가니스탄 사태, 델타 변이 등 우려는 인도주의적 비극이지만 자본시장에는 영향이 제한적. - 코로나 제한 조치로 소매·숙박·여행 일부가 타격을 받았으나, 해당 업종은 미국·글로벌 주식시장의 약 2% 수준이라 시장 전체 파급은 작다고 봄. 전망 - 과열 단계가 아니므로 시장은 장기 강세장의 다음 구간으로 갈 수 있다는 입장. 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않음. - 리스크: 심리가 다시 과열로 흐를 경우 템플턴 식 '도취' 단계 진입 가능성, 규제 우려 등은 언급되었으나 방향 예측은 아님.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. a valid question always is where investor sentiment stands because as i cite over and over and over sir john templeton's legendary line that bull markets are born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and die of euphoria is a piece of permanent wisdom and as we've moved from a world 12 years ago with tremendous fear and pessimism of all things irregularly forward into a world that at the beginning of this year as i've said was beginning to bite on to the early stages of euphoria that the concern about sentiment is a valid one but in fact since about march while we've had a stock market that up until about a month ago was rip roaring and over the course of the last month is kind of wiggle sideways we see sentiment actually having backtracked fairly significantly a lot of the features that were heavily beginning to get a little bit scary have backed off the huge surge that had occurred and set all-time records in special purpose acquisition funds which is a sort of a tricky way to do a alternative in initial public offering the move toward non-fungible tokens which are these bizarre ways to have something be traded at a very high level supposedly backed by some form of uh crypto and crypto itself in the spring spiking to uh record pricing these and other signs for example early in the year surveys from institutional investors showed most institutional investors expecting to see mildly higher prices year ahead now of course stocks have done much better than that so they were wrong about that but now we've seen a world where they actually expect lower prices by the end of the year and they're almost always wrong so you should see that as a positive sign to back off in uh special purpose acquisition uh offerings both in terms of some that blew up and others that were stalled off from regulatory concerns and in fact regulatory concerns not just uh from our government but also from foreign countries have led that as well as crypto to become more if you will down to earth all of these are actually signs that sentiment is backed off john templeton's line is a good one but the move from pessimism to a bull market's euphoria is not a straight line it's a wiggly line it's a wiggly line a little bit like the stock market's wiggly and what we've had since march is that wiggling back into an area that's now clear optimism but we're clearly not at euphoria we've got numbers of things that people wrongly associate with fear a fear for example about what's going on in afghanistan which is a true human tragedy it's a humanitarian tragedy but it's the kind of thing that doesn't really impact capital markets capital markets just don't it capital markets are cruel mean non-caring and literally things like that we have a very long history of them in different forms markets don't care about that things like the delta variant and fears about other future variants of covid causing slower growth when before people thought we were off to the races in a long boom this also was an optimism that was always a false optimism because as i've said from early in the year what we really did was had a a fairly strong upturn that was moving us back toward normalcy but then we hear people say and there's some validity to it that what's gone on with covid has put restrictions in varied ways in varied places that has impacted some of the small retailing some of the hospitality industry negatively impacted some other parts of travel and that's all true but those features all of them in aggregate are a tiny tiny small percentage of the u.s or global stock market ranging in the area of about two percent that is that which is impacted is two percent so that tells you why it is that those things which get a lot of attention in media don't have any real ripple over effect into the stock market these features have moved us back into what i would call an area where sentiment now having wiggled backwards a little bit from where it had been now has room to run as we move into the next leg of this long bull market