Ken Fisher Explains How News Headlines Affect Stock Prices

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결론: 인프라 법안에 대한 기대(호재)는 이미 주가에 선반영되었고, 실제 효과는 미미해 인프라 관련주가 오히려 부진할 가능성이 더 크다. 선반영 주장: 시장은 사람들이 좋다고 떠드는 뉴스를 이미 가격에 반영하며, 법안 통과 전부터 호재 기대가 주가에 들어가 있었다. 법안 내용 근거: 1.1조 달러 중 실제 도로·교량·항만·공항 등 하드 인프라는 약 10% 남짓이며, 나머지는 다른 항목이다. 일부는 무엇인지 파악하기 어렵다고 지적. 집행 시차: 인프라는 즉시 착공 가능한 '셔블 레디' 사업이 거의 없고, 인허가·계획 절차로 실제 투입까지 오래 걸려 미래 지출이므로 현재 시장에 영향이 적다. 예산 재조정 리스크: 매년 예산이 다시 편성·축소·변경될 수 있어 법안 규모가 1.1조 그대로 집행되지 않을 수 있다. 실제 집행 규모는 전체의 약 5% 수준으로 볼 수 있다는 견해. 투자 함의: 인프라 관련 소재·산업재 종목은 기대와 달리 주가가 잘 오르지 않을 가능성이 높다는 판단. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간 언급은 없고, 전반적 인프라 관련주에 대한 부정적 방향성 발언.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hoopla is hui it's also always pre-priced in capital markets the stock market has taken everything that people talk about widely get excited about think is really good and pre-priced it before we ever get to the reality of it hoopla is hui when you think of the infrastructure bill there's a lot of people who have presumed that means that governmental spending on infrastructure-related items will help buoy the stocks of infrastructure-related companies that could include materials and industrials and of various types in reality there's pretty much none of that will occur first the pre-pricing and the hoopla has already happened the pre-pricing and the hoopla will have happened before the bill ever was passed secondarily in the passing of the bill and a couple of thousand pages that involve it most of what is in that package which will occur maybe most of it is not what you think of hardcore infrastructure most of it is other stuff really there's only about a little over 10 of the 1.1 trillion dollars that's real hard infrastructure the way we normally think about roads and bridges and ports and airports and just the hard stuff that uses concrete and steel and glass and what you think of when you think of infrastructure and then on top of the fact that it's a smaller amount it's spread out over quite a few years because in fact one thing that we've learned from the past is there is no such thing as infrastructure that's shovel ready you'll remember when president obama when he was first elected allocated 100 million dollars for shovel-ready infrastructure if you remember pretty much none of that ever happened because there wasn't any and there isn't any now it takes such a long time in the permitting process the planning process and all of those things to get to where infrastructure ever can be put into the ground that it's way out in the future and things that are way out in the future markets tend not to deal with today and then finally because a lot of that is way out in the future and i want you to think about this because i don't think most people do because a lot of that is way out in the future including the parts that aren't hard infrastructure there'll be another budget next year and a budget year after that and a budget the year after that and a budget the year after that and all of that can be redone and downsized redone rejiggered changed and maybe ends up being something completely different than what's in the bill today if you want to think of this bill as 1.1 trillion you're thinking about hoopla if you want to think of this bill as something that might be 5 of that in a wide variety of things half of which you can't even figure out what they are much of which is going to be stupid stuff and the rest of it to be reconsidered next year and reconsider the year after and reconsider the year after and maybe something happens and maybe doesn't you're thinking about it correctly so therefore it has very little power on stocks today while the hoop law has had people think infrastructure stocks should do well when people think something should do well because of a fundamental feature that they think will occur that won't occur anytime any too soon it's probably more likely that the stocks don't do well