원문 보기
Bloomberg audio Studios podcasts radio news joining us now portfolio manager noril rubini of Atlas America fund it's been way too long noril we got to get you in here more and more you're traveling so much we hardly see you you've teamed up with rbndi at at Atlas America are you running money now what are you learning running money at at Alice America uh we're not yet actually we're in quiet period the city is now approving our thing so we be launching registration and yeah exactly for now I cannot speak this is going to be this is going to be something to see nor Rini run money in the world we're in the great post pandemic shock has been American exceptionalism American Prosperity are you willing to say this gift that we have is nothing but trillion dollar deficits uh no I wouldn't say it's only trillion deficits I think that whole bunch of things have happened uh we had the infrastructure act we had the IRA with the chips act with actually loose migration policies that led to an inflow of workers that increased the labor Supply growth and reduced inflation uh so certainly the fiscal stimulus has helped the margin but I think also we consider this AI Revolution a significant increase in capex by the private sector uh potential growth of the US given technological innovation by the end of this decade could be in my view higher than 3% that's that's a revolution right China might be growing less than 3% by the end of this decade us might be growing faster than China I know it's a bit of a bold prediction to make but I think that uh in spite of the dysfunctionality of our political system we're totally partisan and you name it the private sector Innovation is such in lots of the Technologies and Industry of the future it's not just AI is robotic automation biomedical research space exploration new weapon system act Tech Green Tech Quantum Computing there's a flurry of new technology going to radically change the economy and I think part of the strength of the economy that's been growing fast the potential in spite of the FED for the last Fe is tightening is there is a shift is a regime shift n you mentioned uh before we went on the air they're going to be traveling pretty extensively over the the coming weeks here I suspect internationally they're going to be asking you about your thoughts on the US election coming up how would you frame a response to some of your International clients well I think that the major probable risk to the US economy comes from the elections and uh the economic policies of a new Trump Administration will be very different than those of a Harris Administration if you take it face value what Trump says he says I'm going to impose tariffs on All Imports in the US of 10 to up to 20% up to 60% on those from China he wants to the value the dollar because he thinks is too strong and has led to the industrialization he wants a more doish fed and have a chance to change some of the leadership with the fed and the center for responsible budgets the other day said that his fiscal policy will increase the deficits and the debt by $7.5 trillion over the next decade that's well above what the Harris even Harris will have it but unquote only 3.5 and you will have restriction to make migrations severe Draconian res migration don't if it's going to deport millions of people but even not letting them in implies a significant reduction and labor Supply so all these things together all these policy Trade Currency migration monetary fiscal policy in my view imply higher inflation lower economic growth higher bond yields and potential for a correction in equities you're not willing to give up on stagflation a lot of people are saying maybe it's over um I is over for the following reason uh the three negative aggregate supply shocks of covid of course have gone away but as a pointed out the economic policies of a trump Administration my view are stationary because whether it's immigration whether it's the currency whether it's trade whether it's monetary and fiscal policy they are increasing inflation and they would reduce economic growth so that call it station light or station but they would be stationary and as I pointed out in my Mega threat book there other forces are more medium- term that are all stationary um decoupling and protectionism uh restriction to migration aging of population reshoring and fr Shoring geopolitical RIS lead to fragmentation climate change new pandemics backlash against liberal democracy leading to fiscal policy that are pro labor and Union increased wage growth and potential even dollarization gradual but it will increase essentially uh well this is your wheelhouse when you with President Clinton can you model a weak dollar can I model it in which do you predict a weak dollar uh it depends you know if we have a very large fiscal deficits and if we have very large current account deficit these twin deficit are going to continue in spite of the strength of the private sector I think at some point the bond malet Vigilant is going to wake up and the last few years in spite of these twin deficits the dollar was strengthening because we had tight monetary policy and therefore the capital account was essentially compensating for a very large current account deficit but if that large current account deficit remains at the same time interest rate differential are implying that the capital infl in the US are going to be less let alone the fact that we are weaponizing the dollar and some country may be gradually the dollar rizing that would imply overtime a weaker dollar overtime I'm not talking about the crash of the US dollar but the the the counterargument is that there is so much innovation in us that the influ of capital not going to be into fixed income treasuries but rather inequities that has sustain of course the dollar for the last few years if that continues then that might be partially supportive of the dollar leaded to less of a weakening Professor most of us grew up with globalization yep as a theme as something we learned and experienced but that seems to have reversed itself a little bit over the last four five six years a do you agree with that and B will that uh yes I would say that both the trends of geopolitical fragmentation are leading to some degree of call it either de globalization or decoupling or the risking or uh re um reshoring and fr Shoring or changing in the global global Supply chains from just in time to just in case from China to China plus one or plus two from emphasizing in investment Economic Security rather than economic efficiency so the question is not whether the direction is one towards fragmentation is going to continue given geopolitics given AI given other pressure that are on labor income the question is not weather but only how much and how fast nor robini with us here uh folks the Dow negative 92 the vix 2.23 a little bit of weight to the tape this morning noral with all that said we're in a bullmark market tomorrow JP Morgan earnings for for the last 10 years annual return on JP Morgan's 12 13 14 uh perc per year how do you explain the lift in asset valuations in America well I explained by the fact that um one we achieved the soft landing and we achieved it um not because of what the FED did but because we got lucky those three negative aggregate supply shocks of covid revers themselves you think the Fed got lucky they got lucky because in any other situation fed going from zero and QE to 5 and a half and QT would have led not only to lower inflation but also to significantly lower growth and even a recession now we had the lower inflation but we did not have the recession why my explanation is that three negative aggregate supply shocks of covid the impact of covid on supply of goods and services and supply chains and labor went away the impact of the shock of Russia Ukraine on Comm the prices went away and China faced out the zero covid policy on top of those three we got other things that happened one was immigration 2.5 million people entering us for the last four years documented or undocumented that kept the lead on wage growth increase growth we had the AI Revolution that also has led significant increase in private capex so all those factors explain why we said stronger growth and inflation went lower was not really the Fed was just we got lucky and we got immigration and we got they are Revolution geopolitical risk it's front and center for investors really over the last several years probably more so than it has been in a while yet markets have seem to turn higher how do you factor whether it's you know coming out of Ukraine or the Middle East how do you factor that in well my explanation is that for the time being Market have correctly estimated that all these conflicts are Regional rather than Global after all Russia Ukraine is very ugly it has damaged severe the Ukrainian economy has caused some damage to Russia it had initial impact on global commodity prices but now more oil and natural gas from the m east us has led to even the European being able to phase out the Russian oil for now the conflict between Israel and Hamas was on Gaza there is a risk of regionalization so far has not occurred and the cold war between us and China is a cold war but is probably not escalating at the speed and it's going to become a hot war in the short run or having global consequences I think markets have correctly said these things are terrible for specific countries and region but they don't have a global impact of all of them I would say the biggest risk today is that if if Israel were to go and strike Iran and there is a consensus within Israel not just on the right netan but even people that are on opposition like Benny Gans has said we have to get rid of this regime in Iran then if Israel were to go to try to achieve regime change in Iran you could have really a conflagration in the Gulf you could have essentially the production and export of oil from the Gulf being blocked for several months you could have a shock like 1973 yam kipur or 1979 Islamic Iranian Revolution I think that's the biggest risk and by the way if if Trump gets elected the Chance is going to give a green light to netan to go and say bomb the hell out of Iran get rid of the regime it'll be higher than under haris Administration where does turkey fit into this your father moved rugs in Turkey years ago nor robini on the next aan what do you expect to see there well the economy is still quite fragile uh the good news that he he put in place as Finance Minister mmed shimek who actually very mainstream and Orthodox yeah yeah is very good and therefore inflation is gradually falling but still too high but they're going at least in direction that are less etox economic policy and gradually more Orthodox one so I would say that actually turkey is a country that based on overall fundamentals strong manufacturing sector Innovation good financial sector could do well America we've heard this soral are you telling me I got 30 seconds are you telling me your long Turkish L is that going to be your first Trader no no I'm not longer because the inflation rate is still too high and the amount of monetary fiscal and credit tightening is not yet sufficient but I'm saying at least they're moving in the right direction compared to what it was the situation before the last last presidential election so finally erdogan has realized there was a risk of a currenc and a financial crisis he gave power to some Orthodox Central bankers and finance ministers and therefore the economic policy are moving in the right direction don't be a stranger nor Rini it's been way too long thank you so much with alas America uh fund rabini macro Associates and of course his affiliation with New York University
Comments 0