원문 보기
welcome one of our favorite guests ever nail the market action in 2020 here uh that of course would be fun strike global advisors managing partner and head of research tom lee and tom as i said i mean you nailed everything in 2020 and you're out with a new note here to look ahead to 2021 which is very interesting and i just kind of want to break it down because you focus in on the vix and you've told us to watch that before as kind of being one of the key indicators in terms of where the market is headed from here and it sounds like you're breaking down kind of where the volatility expectations are here in 2021 with investors showing that they're expecting similar levels of volatility uh to what we saw play out last year so what does that mean for the markets when you look at the data um well uh yeah thanks for having me on uh the vix which is a measure of expected volatility i think has always provided a lot of good signal for people and higher levels of spot vix obviously mean people are scared but what we wrote about was that when you look at the futures market for vix because that's really where more activity is vix is expected to be high all the way through september and if you think about it that's a pretty insane level of fear that people are scared for the next nine months but what's interesting is that this level of fear is exactly almost the same level was throughout all of 2020 so people don't think anything's getting better and that's how the market is perceiving equities today and the economy and if you believe things are indeed improving then you should be buying stocks because the vix is destined to fall in the next nine months but another thing that that's kind of that was i don't know sorry i just want to get to it in the second point yeah the second point is if you look at the fact that people think current volatility was higher than future that's how 2020 averaged and you know people just thought there was always going to be a near-term volatility event in the 12 months after averaging a level like that stocks do incredibly well in fact they've never had a down year so 2021 is a year where the vix is unwinding that fear and historically the average gain is 23 so i think stocks have a underlying positive risk reward uh and i think that's how you should approach it but again you know future's uncertain covets uncertain so you know just keep that in mind but again history says this should be a great year for stocks tom in addition to the equity markets we always like to come to you to talk about bitcoin uh certainly significant gains that we've seen trading right now well above 41 000 you saw that note out from jpm earlier uh this week talking about a bitcoin hitting 146 000 has your thesis changed at all given the significant surge that we have seen over the last several weeks uh uh you know i i think that the price moving in bitcoin actually is pretty textbook um because it's behaving the way crypto and bitcoin has acted after previous happenings you know when the black awards cut in half and 20 2017 was a year when bitcoin bitcoin last went parabolic that's one full year after the happening 2021 would pattern itself after that so if if you know the fact that bitcoins doubled almost in 10 days and i think the jp morgan numbers are not that far off i mean i'm not sure i'd be that precise with like you know 146 000 but the i think bitcoin if it looks like 2017 will be up at least 300 percent this year it does seem like an oddly precise price target there too i mean you guys had uh 40 000 were already above that now uh you said that it could quadruple that would put it above 100 000 here at some point in 2021 so i mean continue that trend we've talked about volatility in bitcoin and how quickly it can move south here so i mean obviously it's not expected to be a uh straight up into the right chart or is it maybe how should investors be looking at uh yeah it's a hyper volatile asset um you know again i i just would point out the future is uncertain but our road map for risk assets this year is that stocks would be pretty explosive out of the gate and peak in sometime either in late january uh but as late as april around s p 4000 before a big drawdown happens i think bitcoin is going to if the s p falls ten percent you know bitcoin is going to have a huge drawdown it could be down 40 50 percent so i i don't think it's a straight up with a ruler um it's gonna be pretty jagged but i think at the end of the year bitcoin is much higher did you say it could be down as much as 40 yes but that's uh that's a pretty typical correction for crypto um you know in fact i think last year it had a couple of drawdowns nearly that size so that's that's what you get with a permissionless blockchain and experiencing hyper growth and adoption i mean you talk about kind of this this risk you know the trigger that we're expected to see in the first half of 2021 that could spark this correction a lot of people were wondering if that was going to be you know the the outcome of the democratic wins in georgia doesn't seem to be based on the market reaction we're seeing play out now so when you look ahead i i guess our attention turns back to kind of the vaccine rollout you have your eyes on israel to see how things are going over there but what's kind of your next judgment of what could trigger maybe that correction you see on the horizon and what investors should be watching now yeah i mean well foremost uh it was never our view that the senate race would have any impact on markets i think it's uh that's someone's you know imaginary uh shouting at the market to do something um and you know uh so i i think that if if there's something that's going to scare markets it's kind of what you said you know it would be the risk that the pandemic looks like we're losing ground i mean right now there's millions of people getting vaccinated and hopefully that leads to a slowdown infections that's why we're watching israel closely because israel is the furthest along with percentage of the population and um you know so presumably if cases start to slow that's good but if they don't i don't know i think that would be very worrisome um the other thing is you know the yield curve which has really great predictive power on on what the pmis will do the yield curve is saying that pmis are potentially going to be peaking this month in january and then fall through may and i think that that move towards 50 on the isms could make people think we're heading towards a recession and that could be a a reason for stocks to sell off but you know i the market's unpredictable but again i just want to be clear nobody at fundstrat thought the the senate race would have any bearing on markets even if people were sitting on cash in fact i would counter trade that and say that's one reason we thought that markets would be explosive out of the gates uh tom i want to follow up on that point you just made um about the virus itself and the spread that if in fact it felt like we're sort of losing control you could argue if we're following sort of what what the health community is saying this is about the worst that we're seeing in terms of the surge things likely to get worse at a time when there are some signs that the vaccine rollout may not happen as rapidly as we initially thought how are you following the numbers here in the u.s and has the outlook on that front change for you at all when you look at how slow the inoculations have actually gone in the first month of this vaccine um yeah i mean cdc is releasing the data daily and uh our data science team is is pulling that data and so we have a good real time snapshot it comes out at 9am every day i actually think the vaccine vaccinations are ramping up pretty dramatically i mean yesterday they were 30 above the day before and the pace is around 500 000 now uh it's probably gonna hit a million next week and that would get to roughly 30 of americans uh being vaccinated by april and that's also when the winter kind of ends and covet hopefully is is retreating so i think you know it's a mistake to think that out of the gates if the vaccines are choppy now and that's a lot of its state implementation um it's not it's going to look like that in april i'm sure it's going to ramp up look what happened with testing in the u.s i mean now the u.s has carpet bombed with testing and in the beginning it was slow so i'm not that worried about it but if covet mutates or if the vaccine doesn't work that that would be very worrisome tomly always good to get your perspective here on the show funds right global advisors managing partner and head of research
Comments 0