저자: PaulMueller · 외국인
요약 보기
잭슨홀 연설에서 파월이 9월 금리인하를 사실상 확정하는 듯한 신호를 주며 증시가 급등했다. 고용 둔화에도 실업률은 안정적이며, 연내 추가 인하(25bp 위주, 최대 3회)가 예상된다. 다만 관세에 따른 물가 압력이 불확실성 요인이다. 주식시장은 신고가를 경신 중이며 AI 투자 붐이 강하지만, 무역 협상 결과에 따라 3~6개월 전망은 불투명하다.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Live Now from Fox. I'm your host, Mike Pa. Thanks again for joining us for the evening edition of Live Now from Fox. Now let's turn to some economic news. Maybe you heard, or maybe you already took a peek at your 401(k), but the markets absolutely surged today.
Look at the Dow, up 846 points. The Nasdaq ripped higher, and so did the S&P 500. The reason was a big economic speech, and not in New York City, Chicago, or San Francisco, but at the big one in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the keynote speech. It ran about 20 minutes, and he dropped a little hint that a rate cut could be coming soon. That really triggered the market. Now we want some analysis on all of this. Everyone, please welcome my next guest. This is Paul Mueller with AI. Thanks so much for joining us, Paul. This was a day when we saw the market absolutely surge. But was it warranted?
Well, I think the market was happy that Jerome Powell didn't rock the boat, so to speak. He clearly said what they were going to do, and they're going to continue on their path. The rate cut in September is coming. Most importantly for the market, for the first time we heard from Powell a kind of acknowledgment, or a hint, that he's much more open to lowering rates, maybe faster and maybe by more than he was, say, three or six months ago. So I think the market is cheering because there was nothing too unexpected in his 20-minute speech today. This week felt like an ebb and flow. Just a couple of weeks ago it seemed like the odds were better for a rate cut, and then this week it started out a little bearish.
That's right. Everyone is trying to figure out the new economic world we're in, and Chairman Powell alluded to this. The jobs report from earlier this month was not very good. There were a lot of downward revisions and not much job creation over the last three months. On the other hand, unemployment hasn't really ticked up even as immigration enforcement has increased. So we have a case where job growth is slow, but the supply of labor also seems to be slowing. We don't see unemployment spiking. Chairman Powell is trying to figure out how to interpret this: is the economy slowing, does it need a bit of stimulus, or are things fine under this new normal? The market, Chairman Powell, and all of us are trying to figure out what this means for the fall.
Yes, so true. And with President Trump always putting pressure on Jerome Powell, calling him too late, do you think any of that led up to this, or how do you think it all shakes out?
Well, I think Chairman Powell is relieved that September is coming soon. September is when the Fed said it was going to cut, and I think he's looking forward to cutting. Maybe President Trump will put a little less pressure on him on that front. He made a side comment in his speech that I think was actually directed, in a way, at Trump's pressure. He said that he and the other members of the FOMC will continue to make recommendations based on their assessment of the data, and that's what they're going to keep doing. I think he said that specifically to make clear they won't simply do what the president or anybody in Congress wants just because they want it. So he made a plug there for continued independence and continued analysis by the FOMC members. Chairman Powell is the chairman, but there are quite a few members of the FOMC, so it's not a unanimous decision or a single person making these calls.
The next question a lot of people have is, if it is indeed a rate cut in September, could there be another one this year, and what would need to happen for that to get going? I think there will very likely be another one this year. There's always the question of whether it'll be 25 basis points or 50. I think Powell doesn't want to rock the boat, so he's going to be fairly steady. Probably 25 basis points. We might get three cuts. We'll see. The needle Powell is trying to thread is whether tariffs will push prices up and whether inflation will stay somewhat elevated above their target. It's down a lot from a couple of years ago, but it's still high compared to where they want it. That would suggest keeping interest rates tight and high. On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, the labor market might be softening, and growth isn't coming in as robustly as some people expected. So maybe the economy needs a bit of a kick or stimulus. There's going to be a lot of wait-and-see. We'll watch what happens to prices and to the labor market and job creation. The next couple of months are going to be crucial. The Fed is going to lower its interest rate in September, and that's pretty much locked in. I think they're hoping by then to have better data on whether the labor market is deteriorating or whether prices are going back up, to help them decide when to make the next cut.
All great information. Paul, lastly tonight, for the traders, what does this look like for the next couple of weeks? Does the euphoria continue all the way into the meeting?
It's a great question. I do a little trading myself, and it's really hard to tell. The stock market keeps hitting new highs. It has been incredibly strong. It shook off the bad jobs report and shook off low growth in the first quarter. There's a lot of enthusiasm out there and a lot of investment going on. The AI boom is huge. It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. Right now the market is chugging along. I think a lot depends on how the trade deals settle. There's a lot going on in the economy that's good domestically, in terms of deregulation, lower taxes, and investment. That's all positive for the economy. But there's still a great deal of uncertainty about how the trade deals will shake out, whether trade flows will decline, and what that means over time. Until those are really sorted out, it's hard to say with confidence that we'll be in a good place three or six months from now.
Yeah, if we had that crystal ball, Paul, I think we'd be really high in the options market today, right?
If only. If only.
Paul Mueller, thanks so much for joining us on Live Now from Fox. We always appreciate it.
Thank you. Have a great night and weekend.
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