저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Ackman는 고PER 주식 평가 시 PER보다 성장 궤적과 이익·현금흐름의 질(재투자 필요 여부)을 봐야 한다고 주장. 로열티형 사업(Visa/Mastercard, 음원 권리 등)을 선호하며 자본 투입 없이 높은 성장과 수익을 내는 기업이 최고라고 봄. Spotify는 유통 채널로 상품화 위험이 있어 콘텐츠 권리 보유사를 선호. 음원 산업은 전 세계 음악 소비 증가에 따른 로열티 성장 수혜. 시장이 저평가된 사업은 자사주 매입 여력이 있어 장기 가치 창출 가능성이 큼.
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How do you balance the valuation component of these businesses um when you're looking to invest in them especially today when like a lot of these great businesses they seem to have very high multiples relative to their future growth prospects. Thank you so much. Sure. So actually what's interesting is Buffett says the best businesses in the world are businesses that earn very high returns on capital and you can keep reinvesting a lot of capital into them.
uh we sort of disagree a bit in that we think the best businesses in the world are ones that don't require any capital or minimal capital and literally can distribute out all their earnings and still compound at high rates and earn high returns. Um so uh I'd focus less on multiples uh right and more on remember you own the present the value of anything is present value the future cash you can take out over its times you know a cheap stock can be at 35 times earnings an expensive stock can be at 10 times right you know the what matters is what the growth trajectory is and what is the what are the qualities of the earnings or cash flows generated by the business if 100% of the cash flows need to be reinvested for the business to grow uh or even just to kind of stay where it is.
That's a very different story and you pay a different multiple for that than a business that literally is is a is a royalty. If you look at our portfolio, we own businesses. I guess I won't name them because of uh the legal advice we got at the beginning. We love businesses that are royalties uh royalty collecting companies whether you know uh and those are and ones we don't own.
You know, think about Visa, right? I was asked uh I spoke at a business school like in 1995 someone said what's the greatest business in the world you can come up with and I said you know it's probably Visa Mastercard which is a royalty on people's spending mistake I made was not buying Visa Mastercard when I went public um so we make mistakes uh at Persian Square but it's so I focus a little you know multiple gives you an indication of your initial yield right if you're paying 30 times earnings flip it over you're buying at a 3% yield The question is it is that coming to you in cash or is it being reinvested at what kind of rate of return and how can that grow over time.
So it's you know it's a useful uh rubric to say okay what what's the PE but that doesn't tell you whether it's cheap or expensive. It's just one of the indicators of value. More questions. Bill Steven Clappam from behind the balance sheet in London. Thank you for doing this and for giving us the opportunity to pick your brains.
Um, I've been an investor in UMG for many years vendi before it was floated and I wrote when it was floated that UMG mathematically was worth more than Spotify. I was wondering if you could without naming any stocks give us a view of how investors are looking at the music industry today, why where they're making mistakes and how that might change going forward.
Thank you. Maybe I'll briefly comment I'll turn over to Ryan. So if you think about Spotify, it's the business of distributing someone else's IP, right? It's a distribution channel and there are multiple Spotify. There's Apple Music, there's YouTube, there are other ways to get it's a bit like the cable channel.
It's not the content. Um, you know, if you have unique content, um, I'd rather own the con the unique content than the distributor of the content. Um, because I think one is more of a commodity business. Now, there are things you the Spotify of the world can do to differentiate themselves from others.
Uh, you know, and they're taking various steps to do that. creating premium, you know, content for their customers, you know, uh they've tried that with podcasts, etc. But, you know, which would you rather own, right? The would you rather own the Beatles or would you uh rather own someone who distributes their records?
Um Ryan, sure. I think one of the great things about the record label industry in general is that it's really a royalty on the growth of music consumption. Companies like Spotify and other competitors in the space have created a much easier transmission mechanism. You don't have to go buy a CD anymore in order to listen to one song on it.
Now you have all the world's, you know, really I think there's about 90% of all the music that's ever been created, you can get on your iPhone um and listen to it for a very low cost. And so what that means is it opens up the aperture of music listening to a lot more people. And if you're a royalty, you're royalty business, you're getting a clip of every single song that gets listened to.
And most importantly, that form of entertainment is probably the cheapest form of highv value entertainment of just about anything you can think of because it really costs maybe 8 cents an hour in order to listen to it for the average user. That could be something people would pay a lot more money for over time.
And these royalty businesses don't invest any capital to get all that future growth of all the music consumption around the world and what we think is going to be increasingly valuable consumption that people pay a lot more for. So it's really that business that you feel like you could own for a very long period of time which is likely to grow at a very high rate.
So those are some of the best businesses that we can identify. And if you think about the some of the structural changes that you know are bad for office you know work from home people working from home are listening to more music uh than people working in the office. Do you know what I'm saying? Your points are very well made but the stock market doesn't seem to have recognized them.
And that was really my question because mathematically by the way it's it's okay if your if your horizon is not short-term actually a business trading at a discount to intrinsic value can be worth ultimately more than one that always trades at its fair price. Right? If you have a business that generates a ton of cash, it always trades at a discount to what it's really worth.
uh versus a business that trades at fair value that all same economic characteristics, you'd rather own the one trading at a discount because they've got a really another opportunity to use their cash to in effect retire their shares. Right? That's a an asset of a company trading at a discount that generates more cash than it needs is the ability to rep to buy out your partners at a discount to what the business is worth. And a lot of value can be created that way.
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