원문 보기
Innovation will always be the key to progress. In this video, we'll look at some history and interesting facts about today's very rapid and agile innovation. We'll also try to answer the question of where to invest for the future, focusing on important entities. We'll see who Katie Wood is, why she's been in the news lately, and what she's focusing on for the future.
Throughout history, we've had three major industrial revolutions. The first revolution was based on mechanical production systems with hydraulic and steam power. We have the second revolution and its mass production, and the third revolution was based on microelectronics and information technology. Currently, we're living in the fourth industrial revolution, which has been called Industry 4.0.
Here we have a graph that shows the axis on which this Industry 4.0 is focusing. We have, for example, robotics, augmented reality, 3D printing, cloud computing, cybersecurity, the Internet of Things, integration systems, and a lot of simulation. This graph here shows the life cycle of a company. And we know that these cycles are becoming faster and shorter, and those companies that don't reinvent themselves, that don't restructure, will tend to decline.
A great example of restructuring can be seen, for example, in General Electric, with its former CEO, Joe Jack Welch, who was blind between the 1980s and approximately 2001. Among the life cycles of a company, we have its beginning or birth, the growth stage, the maturity stage, the decline stage, and finally the liquidation stage, provided that the company doesn't go through a restructuring process.
And here I want to pose a question: where would you place a company like Facebook? Would you place it here in the growth stage, or would you place it in the mature stage? Where would you place a company like Netflix or a company like Apple? And this is where the dilemma or the division between root investors and value investors arises.
Placing companies like Facebook, Amazon, or Apple in this category might seem simple to some, but I think we need to think a little more about this point. Graphs like this one, which I've presented before, show us the fans, for example. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google—what we have here is the market cap, or market capitalization, of the fan groups.
Then we have the market cap of the S&P 500 and the market cap of the S&P 500 without the fan groups. This graph here shows the percentage by weight of the fan groups in the S& P 500. We are talking here about market cap. These companies are made up of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft.
Currently, this percentage is close to 23%. As I said before, companies are having increasingly shorter cycles. What this graph shows are the years it takes companies to reach the record of $10 billion in market capitalization. We have, for example, Starbucks, which took more than 30 years, then Paul, which took more than 20 years, Microsoft, more than 15 years, Netflix, less than 15 years, companies like Salesforce, more than 10 years, WeWork, less than 5 years, Ayer Ensenada, 5 years, Amazon, less than five years, and Uber, less than five years.
And finally, we have this company here, Julio, an e-cigarette company, which took less than three years to reach a market capitalization of $10 billion. This graph here is also very interesting; it shows the average lifespan of companies in the S& P 500. In 1955, the average lifespan was over 55 years.
Around the year 2000, companies had an average lifespan of 25 years, and by 2015, the average lifespan of S& P 500 companies was less than 20 years. Do you think GDP will continue to be an indicator for measuring a country's power? Currently, we have other indicators, such as the Human Development Index.
In this case, the 2019 report shows that the Human Development Index is based on three components: life expectancy, expected years of education, and this component here, which is gross national income per capita. We can see here that the countries leading this index are, for example, Norway, followed by Switzerland, Ireland, Germany, and Hong Kong.
Australia, etc. We also have another very important index, the Social Progress Index. This index is also divided into three components: Basic Needs, Foundations of Wellbeing, and Opportunity. Here we can see some groups such as access to water, access to education, corruption, etc. Throughout history, innovation has been classified into waves, and here we have the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth waves.
The fifth wave has been based, for example, on digital networks, software, and new media. Currently, we are in a sixth wave, which is based, for example, on sustainability, systems design, green chemistry, industrial ecology, etc. Something else we should know is that technology is being adopted faster and faster by households.
This graph here shows the adoption of technology in US households. For example, we have electricity here, refrigerators at home, microwaves, which are, for example, in the Indec Live data. We have cars, for example, when there is information available after the year 2000, computers, which are practically at 90%, and the internet as well, and the use of smartphones, which is...
At 80 percent, social media use is also close to 80 percent of all households in the US. We have microcomputers here, we have tablets, and we also have, for example, landlines, which are declining, possibly due to smartphones and cell phones. And here's another interesting piece of data: Amazon Prime users are approaching 40 percent of all households in the United States.
To see how fast innovation is happening, let's look at these graphs. This one here is the cost of sequencing a human genome. In 2001, we were talking about $100 million, and it's expected that by 2021 the cost will be $100. This graph here shows the miles in millions of self- driving cars in America, and the company releasing this data is WayMoon, which is a Google company.
And we have this curve here, which is the total of all these companies combined. Here we have Uber, General Motors, Tesla, and Nissan. This one here is a cost graph Regarding the cost of a kilowatt-hour of lithium batteries for electric vehicles, we see that in 2010 it was close to $1,160, by 2018 it was at $176, and by 2019 this value reached $156.
It is expected that in the future this value will be below $100. Where to invest for the future? Let's look at an example from Canada, a country that is taking this issue of innovation very seriously. This graph here shows the potential impact of these technologies by 2025. We have tablets leading the way, without mobile internet.
Then we have knowledge automation, the Internet of Things, all cloud technology. We also have, for example, advanced robotics, self-driving technology, the human genome, energy storage, 3D printing, advanced materials, advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery, and renewable energy. And what does the UN think about where innovation will focus for the future?
In this case, the Digital Economic Report for 2019. This report here It shows us the latest trends in the digital economy. For example, here we have block change technology, data analytics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, the Internet of Things, automation and robotics, and here again we have the cloud sector.
And what does the Silicon Valley Bank say about this? This is the latest report from 2019. What are the most promising areas in the innovation economy? Here we see that in a decade, artificial intelligence will account for 60 percent, followed by autonomous transportation, life sciences, then we have digital health, followed by clean technologies and energy innovation.
And now let's see who Katy Wood is and why I've been hearing so much about her lately. This is an article from Yahoo Finance. She's already in the pantheon of the best money managers in any period over the last five years and has been the most persuasive and, so far, prophetic champion of Tesla. 7 EFE Arch Innovation, actively managed, is the best performing among 584 funds with at least one billion in assets in the income market.
Global variable crushing BlackRock with a 165 percent return. This here is the return of the last three years of the 'top ten' funds, and here we have Dark and Innovation, which is led by Katie Wood with 165 percent. This chart here that I've prepared compares Innovation with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 from 2015 to June 2, 2020, and we can see that Erika is far ahead with 228 percent, followed by Nadbank with 129 percent and the S&P 500 with 50 percent.
That's a big difference, right? And this is the reason why Katie Wood is being talked about so much lately. And now, where is Katie Wood focusing to get all these returns? Here's a report from yesterday by Innovation entitled "Disruptive Innovation." Here we have the group of the largest innovation platforms, which includes ERC.
Where is Aercap focusing, for example? Here we have artificial intelligence, we have... From robotics to block change, we have energy storage, self- driving cars, the sequencing of the human genome, 3D printers, reusable batteries (something SpaceX is working on), the Internet of Things, the cloud, and so on.
With all this information, you can more or less see where innovation and investment are headed in the future. This is an extra; it's a report from Global Executives, a company affiliated with EFE, titled "Technology Directives." It shows investment opportunities in major technologies (27%), renewable energy (23%), artificial intelligence and robotics (12%), e-commerce (11%), the Internet of Things (8%), autonomous vehicles (8%), fintech (8%), and social media (8%).
Do you see something common here again? Do you see the pattern again? If you'd like me to make a video about which companies are featured in this EFE report, this EFE report by Katy Wood, let me know in the comments. Give it a like! Like this video, and as I always say, if you enjoyed what you saw here and learned something today, give it a like and subscribe to the channel.
Comments 0