저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 파괴적 혁신 기술(AI·로보틱스·클라우드·자율주행 등)에 투자해야 한다는 주장이며, 종목별 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 산업혁명 및 기업 생애주기: 1~4차 산업혁명을 거쳐 현재 Industry 4.0 시대이며, 기업 생애주기가 점점 짧아져 혁신하지 않는 기업은 쇠퇴한다고 주장한다. GE 사례를 언급한다. 플랫폼 기업과 시장 구조: 페이스북·아마존·애플·넷플릭스·구글·마이크로소프트(팬 그룹)의 S&P 500 시가총액 비중이 약 23%라고 설명한다. 기업이 시총 100억 달러에 도달하는 기간이 점점 짧아진다고 제시한다. 기업 수명 및 지표: S&P 500 기업 평균 수명이 1955년 55년 이상에서 2015년 20년 미만으로 줄었다고 말한다. GDP 외에 인간개발지수(HDI)와 사회진보지수 같은 대안 지표를 언급한다. 기술 채택과 혁신 속도: 미국 가정의 기술 보급(PC·인터넷·스마트폰 약 80%, 아마존 프라임 약 40%)을 제시한다. 인간 게놈 해독 비용이 2001년 1억 달러에서 2021년 100달러 수준으로 떨어질 것이라고 말한다. 전기차 리튬배터리 kWh당 비용은 2010년 약 1,160달러에서 2019년 156달러로 하락했고 100달러 이하가 예상된다고 한다. 투자 테마 제시: 캐나다 정부, UN 디지털경제보고서, 실리콘밸리은행 보고서를 인용해 블록체인·데이터 분석·AI·3D프린팅·IoT·자동화·클라우드·자율주행·생명과학·디지털 헬스·클린테크를 유망 분야로 든다. ARK Innovation 성과: 2015~2020년 6월 기준 ARK Innovation이 228%로 나스닥(129%)과 S&P 500(50%)을 앞섰다고 주장한다. 3년 수익률 165%로 BlackRock을 앞섰다고 언급하며, 테슬라 옹호자였다고 소개한다. 포트폴리오 방향: ARK가 집중하는 분야로 AI, 로보틱스, 블록체인, 에너지 저장, 자율주행, 유전체 시퀀싱, 3D프린팅, 재사용 배터리(SpaceX 관련), IoT, 클라우드를 열거한다. 구체적 종목 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않는다. 출연자 관점: 특정 자산의 단기·중기 가격 방향에 대한 발언은 없고, 장기적 혁신 투자 관점만 드러난다.
다듬은 글
Innovation will always be the key to progress. In this video, we'll look at some history and interesting facts about today's very rapid and agile innovation. We'll also try to answer the question of where to invest for the future, focusing on important entities. We'll see who Cathie Wood is, why she's been in the news lately, and what she's focusing on for the future.
Throughout history, we've had three major industrial revolutions. The first was based on mechanical production systems powered by water and steam. The second brought mass production, and the third was based on microelectronics and information technology. Currently, we're living in the fourth industrial revolution, which has been called Industry 4.0.
Here we have a graph showing the axes on which Industry 4.0 focuses: robotics, augmented reality, 3D printing, cloud computing, cybersecurity, the Internet of Things, integrated systems, and a great deal of simulation. This graph shows the life cycle of a company. These cycles are becoming faster and shorter, and companies that don't reinvent themselves or restructure tend to decline.
A great example of restructuring is General Electric under its former CEO, Jack Welch, who led the company from the 1980s until around 2001. A company's life cycle goes through its birth, the growth stage, the maturity stage, the decline stage, and finally the liquidation stage, unless the company goes through a restructuring process.
So here's a question: where would you place a company like Facebook? In the growth stage, or in the mature stage? Where would you place Netflix or Apple? This is where the divide between growth investors and value investors arises.
Placing companies like Facebook, Amazon, or Apple in these categories may seem simple to some, but I think we need to think a little more about this point. Graphs like the one I presented before show us the FAANG stocks, for example: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. What we have here is the market capitalization of these groups.
Then we have the market cap of the S&P 500 and the market cap of the S&P 500 without these groups. This graph shows the percentage weight of these groups in the S&P 500. We're talking about market cap here, and these companies are made up of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft.
Currently, this percentage is close to 23%. As I said before, companies have increasingly shorter cycles. This graph shows the number of years it takes companies to reach a market capitalization of $10 billion. Starbucks took more than 30 years, Paul more than 20 years, Microsoft more than 15 years, and Netflix less than 15 years. Companies like Salesforce took more than 10 years, WeWork less than 5 years, Airbnb about 5 years, Amazon less than 5 years, and Uber less than 5 years.
Finally, we have Juul, an e-cigarette company, which took less than three years to reach a market capitalization of $10 billion.
This graph shows the average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500. In 1955, the average lifespan was over 55 years. Around 2000, it was about 25 years, and by 2015 it was less than 20 years.
Will GDP continue to be the indicator for measuring a country's power? We now have other indicators, such as the Human Development Index. The 2019 report shows the index is based on three components: life expectancy, expected years of education, and gross national income per capita. The countries leading this index are Norway, followed by Switzerland, Ireland, Germany, and Hong Kong, then Australia, and others.
There is also the Social Progress Index, which is divided into three components: Basic Needs, Foundations of Wellbeing, and Opportunity. It measures indicators such as access to water, access to education, corruption, and more.
Throughout history, innovation has come in waves. The fifth wave was based on digital networks, software, and new media. We are currently in a sixth wave, based on sustainability, systems design, green chemistry, industrial ecology, and related fields.
Technology is also being adopted faster and faster by households. This graph shows technology adoption in US households. Electricity, refrigerators, and microwaves have spread widely. Cars, computers (practically at 90%), and the internet are nearly universal, and smartphones are at about 80%. Social media use is also close to 80% of US households. Microcomputers and tablets are rising, while landlines are declining, likely due to smartphones and cell phones. Another striking figure: Amazon Prime users are approaching 40% of all US households.
To see how fast innovation is happening, look at these graphs. The cost of sequencing a human genome was about $100 million in 2001, and it's expected to reach $100 by 2021. This graph shows the millions of miles driven by self-driving cars in America, with the data released by Waymo, a Google company. The curve shows the total of all these companies combined, including Uber, General Motors, Tesla, and Nissan.
Another cost graph concerns the price of a kilowatt-hour of lithium batteries for electric vehicles. In 2010 it was close to $1,160. By 2018 it was $176, and by 2019 it reached $156. It's expected to fall below $100 in the future.
Let's look at an example from Canada, a country taking innovation very seriously. This graph shows the potential impact of these technologies by 2025. Tablets lead the way, followed by knowledge automation, the Internet of Things, and all cloud technology. There's also advanced robotics, self-driving technology, the human genome, energy storage, 3D printing, advanced materials, advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery, and renewable energy.
What does the UN think about where innovation will focus? The 2019 Digital Economy Report shows the latest trends: blockchain technology, data analytics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, the Internet of Things, automation and robotics, and again, the cloud sector.
What does Silicon Valley Bank say? Its 2019 report asks which areas of the innovation economy are most promising. In a decade, artificial intelligence is expected to account for 60%, followed by autonomous transportation, life sciences, digital health, clean technologies, and energy innovation.
Now let's look at who Cathie Wood is and why she's been in the headlines. An article from Yahoo Finance describes her as already among the best money managers over the last five years, and the most persuasive and so far prophetic champion of Tesla. ARK Innovation, which is actively managed, is the best performer among 584 funds with at least one billion in assets in the equity market. It has beaten BlackRock's global fund with a 165% return over the past three years, which places it at the top of the "top ten" funds.
This chart compares ARK Innovation with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 from 2015 to June 2, 2020. ARK Innovation is far ahead with 228%, followed by the Nasdaq with 129% and the S&P 500 with 50%. That's a big difference, and it's the main reason Cathie Wood is being talked about so much lately.
Where is Cathie Wood focusing to achieve these returns? A report from ARK Invest, titled "Disruptive Innovation," lists the largest innovation platforms, including ARK's holdings. The focus areas include artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain, energy storage, self-driving cars, human genome sequencing, 3D printing, reusable rockets and batteries (something SpaceX is working on), the Internet of Things, and the cloud.
With all this information, you can see more or less where innovation and investment are heading. As an extra, a report from Global Executives, an EFE-affiliated company, titled "Technology Directives," shows investment opportunities in major technologies (27%), renewable energy (23%), artificial intelligence and robotics (12%), e-commerce (11%), the Internet of Things (8%), autonomous vehicles (8%), fintech (8%), and social media (8%).
Do you see the common pattern again? If you'd like a video on which companies are featured in this EFE report on Cathie Wood's picks, let me know in the comments. If you enjoyed this video and learned something, give it a like and subscribe to the channel.
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