원문 보기
In 1982, a 33-year-old fund manager appeared on national television and confidently predicted an economic collapse. He was completely wrong. It almost destroyed him. But from this failure, he created the most famous investment portfolio in the world. His name is Ray Dalio. His fund, Bridgewater, later went on to manage assets worth over $150 billion.
And the portfolio he created is called “All Weather” because it is designed to make money in any economic situation . Booms, busts, inflation, deflation— any season. By the end of this video, you'll understand exactly how it works, why it's smarter than it seems, learn about one year when it failed miserably, and five funds you can use to build such a portfolio yourself.
Let's start with personality. Chapter 1. Ray Dalio grew up in an average family on Long Island, working as a caddie on a golf course as a child. He overheard wealthy gamblers talking about stocks, and at the age of 12 he bought his first stock. It has tripled in size. He got " hooked" on it. In 1975 , at the age of 26, he founded the company in his two-bedroom apartment in New York City.
He named it Bridgewater. For many years, it was just him and a few employees trading raw materials and consulting companies. Dalio was a genius, and he knew it, perhaps too well. He became convinced that he could read economics better than anyone. And in 1982, he made his most important prediction. He predicted that the debt crisis would cause the US economy to fall into depression.
He loudly declared this publicly on television and before Congress. He staked the entire existence of his company on it. Instead, the exact opposite happened. The market began one of the largest bullish trends in history. Dalio lost so much money that he had to fire every employee. He was so broke that he borrowed $4,000 from his own father to pay the bills.
This humiliation became the most important moment in his career because it forced him to ask a new question. Not "how do I predict the future ?", but "how do I invest when I know I can't do it?". Chapter 2. This is what Dalio came up with. Classic advice: 60% stocks, 40% bonds. This sounds balanced , but it's not because stocks are much more volatile than bonds.
Almost all of the risk falls on the equity portion. Look at the real numbers. Stocks fluctuate by about 15% per year. Bonds—about five. So even when you divide the money in half, stocks carry about three times the risk as bonds. And this means that a 60/40 portfolio is actually not balanced at all. In terms of risk, it's more like 90% of stocks.
When the stock market crashes, your entire portfolio crashes with it. You just didn't foresee it. So, most people who think they are diversified are actually making one huge bet. A bet that the economy will continue to grow. And when that bet is wrong, there's nowhere to hide. Chapter 3. Dalio's breakthrough was easy to say, but hard to accept.
Don't balance your money evenly. Balance your risk equally. Give each part of the portfolio roughly equal exposure. So no single thing can sink you. Because bonds are more stable, you actually need more of them in dollar terms to match the risk of stocks. That's why this portfolio contains far more bonds than seems normal.
This is not timidity, this is balance. But risk balancing only solves half the problem. You should also ask what makes each asset rise or fall in the first place. And Dalio's answer is what makes this whole system whole. Chapter 4. Dalio said : “The economy really only has four environments. Growth can be upward or downward, and inflation can be upward or downward.
That's all. Four squares, four seasons. And here is the key. Every asset has a season when it shines. Stocks love economic growth. Long-term bonds love falling growth. Gold and commodities love rising inflation. Bonds, in turn, like lower inflation. So instead of betting on which season will come, Dalio holds a stake in each of them simultaneously.
No matter what the economy throws at you, something in your portfolio always works. That's why it's called " all-weather", chapter 5. So, here's the famous recipe. 30% stocks, 55% bonds, divided into 40% long-term and 15% medium-term, 7.5 % gold and 7.5% commodities. Note that only 30% is in stock. This sounds too conservative for most people, but remember: in terms of risk, that 30% in stocks does as much hard work as everything else combined.
It just doesn't look like it. And the best part for the average investor . You don't need a hedge fund to create this . You can recreate all of this with five simple, low-cost exchange-traded funds. 30% in VTI for US stocks, 40% in TLT for long-term Treasury bonds, 15% in IEI for medium-term bonds, 7.5% in GLD for gold and 7.5% in a broad commodities fund .
Buy these five funds in these proportions and once a year sell a little of what has gone up and buy what has gone down to get back to your target levels. This is called rebalancing, and it is the only maintenance this portfolio requires. Chapter six. Let's do a stress test. Big test. 2008, financial crisis.
The S&P 500 index fell 37%. The standard 60/40 portfolio fell about 20%. The all-weather portfolio lost less than 4%. This is a dream, right? Everyone else loses a third of their money, and you barely notice the change. And for 30 years, it was precisely this stability that the all-weather portfolio provided .
But I promised you honesty. So let's talk about the year it failed. 2022 . Inflation exploded , and interest rates skyrocketed. And when rates rise sharply, bonds take a hit, especially long-term ones. Exactly what is most in an all-weather portfolio. So in 2022, stocks fell, but the all-weather portfolio fell even more, losing over 20%.
His only weakness is a world where stocks and bonds fall simultaneously. No briefcase is truly all-weather, not even this one. And there is a second price that is easy to ignore. Over the past decade, US stocks have shown incredible growth. A simple portfolio of only stocks defeated an all-weather portfolio.
Security doesn't come free. You pay for it with lower returns in good years. Chapter 7. So who is it really for? Not for a 25- year-old who wants maximum growth and won't touch the score for 40 years. Such a person can probably withstand more stocks and more volatility. An all-weather portfolio is ideal for someone who hates big swings, who is closer to retirement, or who knows the truth about themselves: that they will panic and sell everything at the bottom if the portfolio falls by 50%.
For such a person, stability is more important than high profits. Because the best portfolio in the world is useless if you can't stick to it. Most people lose money not because their strategy was bad. They lose them because they got scared and abandoned her at the worst possible moment . This was Dalio's real lesson from 1982.
Not that he found a magic portfolio, but that humility—the recognition of the impossibility of predicting the future —is itself an investment advantage. An all-weather portfolio is such humility transformed into a strategy. So if you learn one thing , know this: you won't get rich by guessing the future.
You create wealth by surviving in any version of it. Thank you for watching. If this was helpful, subscribe and write in the comments which portfolio to analyze next.
Comments 0