저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금·은 보유를 권하나 단기 가격 베팅이 아닌 정부 통제·자산 압수 리스크에 대한 보험 성격으로 본다. 금 성과: 1968년 35달러, 1999년 저점 255달러, 2015년 1000달러, 당시 약 1850달러. 2000년 이후 금이 S&P500을 앞섰다고 주장. 달러 강세 기간 동안 금은 다른 통화 기준으로는 더 좋은 성과였다고 언급. 유로스톡스50은 1998년 수준과 큰 차이가 없다고 평가. 은·팔라듐·백금: 은은 투기세력이 이탈해 기술적으로 좋아 보인다고 언급. 팔라듐과 백금도 현재 시점에 매우 좋아 보인다고 평가. 금 보유 이유: 다음 주 상승을 기대하는 것이 아니라 자체 '중앙은행' 역할을 하기 위함. 위기 시 해외(싱가포르, 홍콩, 스위스)에서 금을 가져오지 못할 수 있어 태국에 금을 보관하고, 태국 주식도 대규모로 보유. 정부·다보스 비판: 다보스 참석자들은 사유재산을 포기하라고 하면서 본인들은 전용기를 타는 위선이라고 비판. 정부 신뢰도 하락, 사법 부패 주장, 권위주의 체제(태국 군정)의 자유가 서구보다 많다고 주장. 자산 압수 리스크: 1933년 미국 금 몰수 당시 80~90%가 응하지 않고 금을 숨긴 연구 인용. 재산세·부유세 인상, 비트코인·암호화폐 불법화 가능성 경고, 정부 조사 시 비용 부담 우려. 출연자 전망: 금·은·백금·팔라듐에 대한 긍정적 시각, 비트코인에 대해서는 규제 리스크를 이유로 우려. 본인 나이를 언급하며 장기 관점임을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
as conservative long-term patient investors would have expected it has performed disappointingly the way speculators nervous day traders expected and greedy people expected if you look at the gold price 35 dollars in 1968 it was 300 in 1999 actually the low was 255. it was a thousand dollars in 2015 and we're now at 1850 i don't think it's so bad right yeah i'm going to have my our editor put this chart on the screen but gold has outperformed the s p 500 since the year 2000.
so if you compare gold to the s p 500 where it's ahead uh over the past 22 years and people people don't realize that yes and it was a period of i mean uh dollar strength now in other currencies it's done much better say if you look at the euro 50 stock index in these are the 50 largest companies in europe half of them are run by brain damage people namely the financial sector but aside from that the euro stock index is hardly higher than in 1998.
the so-called has way outperformed european stocks with a few exceptions now i'm not saying that gold is the best investment i'm just trying to explain to people that in my opinion as long as the government doesn't take it away from you and there is a risk but if you listen to these autocrats that gather at davos at the world economic forums and they tell you about useless people and i'm very interested to hear once from the devil's seminar who they consider useless people i hope that i qualify as a useless person because that would be a compliment from me getting this com this designation from these idiots at switzerland that is uh you know kind of the oldest democracy in the western world where everybody could vote in essence they had democracy but only some people could vote the way i think democracy should be organized i don't think that people can't read and write anyway they also tell you well in 10 years time people shouldn't have any possessions but then you look at the airport at davos it's full of private planes so i i i imagine or i suppose that they the davos participants they were this year 2500 altogether but maybe maybe only i don't know a thousand that are active but anyway of these people they're not gonna give up the private planes you can be sure of that but they want all the poor people in the world to follow their these rules and their recommendations but not for them right is the fascist is the fascist movement this weef yeah crazy yeah you should start the referendum and have switzerland uh ban the world economic take them out they can go to saudi arabia or i don't know where dubai dubai right but i would hold gold and silver actually silver technically looks good because the speculators are pretty much given up and fundamentally i think palladium and platinum also look very good at the present time yeah but i'm not holding gold because i think it will go up next week you understand i want to have my own central bank and so i'm holding gold and i hold some here in thailand because i am afraid that when the will hit the fan you won't be able to travel you won't be able to bring your gold say from singapore hong kong or from switzerland to thailand so i want to have i also have a large portfolio of thai stocks simply because i want to have money in the country that's a very good point because when they do lock things down i mean i heard stories of people being stuck in some countries that they didn't want to be in long term but you know the countries look that i really can't answer because when i grew up the government was regarded in a relatively high esteem in other words they were respected and one thought of someone in government certainly in switzerland as as honest right not 100 on us but say honest relatively speaking i think everybody can see how dishonest these characters are how corrupt they are how corrupted justice has become i don't know whether you followed just yesterday this lawyer fought obama was acquitted i mean this is a travesty of the law yeah travesty and so i think that and also the lockdowns i would never have i grew up and people told me at school at university in every social event democracy is freedom well i have to tell you i have a military government in thailand have much more freedom in thailand than anywhere else in the world wow yeah but for sure i can't vote but i'm not interested to vote for people who are dishonest in the western world either give me an honest politician give me one with some education you cannot succeed in today's politics without having a twisted mind i agree it it seems like it's all falling apart right now and what they can do i don't know whether they will take it away but uh i i think that it's not very very realistic to think that the government will have sufficient employees to run through all the private properties everywhere with that with the detectors yeah right and most back in 1933 most people ignored the government and did not hand in their gold um i saw a study that 80 80 or 90 of the people refused and just ignored the government and kept their gold hidden yes that's probably true but i think the idea is was you know to take it away and that will be in future maybe also the idea but you understand the government can also come to you and say well you know you have a house okay you can keep it but you know your taxes go up by this much so if you look at all the castles in europe most of them were in rings because nobody could afford it anymore that is uh that is a threat and number two they can also on your assets they can intrude use uh wealth taxes and so forth and on bitcoins and source they can declare it illegal and the the argument for people uh to use uh cryptocurrencies of course or the government can't uh find it but if you want to buy some goods at the department stores you will have to convert it first and then the government can ask well well did you where did you have it the moment an unpleasant government official asked questions he can ask them for ages doesn't cost him anything but you have to defend yourself and that may be very costly so i tell you i don't think i will live in a hundred years so it's not really my concern
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