저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 피터 린치 관점에서 금리·거시 변수 예측에 매달리기보다 개별 기업의 이익 성장과 저평가 여부에 집중하고, 장기 관점에서 하락장을 매수 기회로 활용하라는 영상. 린치 철학: 기업 이익과 주가는 장기적으로 100% 연동되며, 금리·유가·정책 등 거시 변수는 단기적으로 예측 불가능하다고 주장. 거시 예측의 무의미성: 1980년대 초 금리 20%, 실업률 14% 같은 침체도 사전에 예측하기 어려웠으며, 경제를 예측하는 데 시간을 쓰는 것은 낭비라고 강조. 금리와 시장: 2007년 이후 가장 높은 금리 환경이지만 아마존·애플·구글 같은 기업을 금리 공포로 피하면 안 된다는 주장. 장기 수익 전망: 기업 이익이 연 7~8% 성장하면 약 10년에 두 배, 배당 포함 시 더 빠른 성장 가능. 10년 국채 금리 약 2% 수준과 비교해 주식이 더 유리하다는 논지. 단기 방향성: 향후 1~2년 주가 방향은 아무도 알 수 없으며 동전 던지기와 같다는 입장. 위험 대비 수익: 맞았을 때 2~3배, 틀렸을 때 30~40% 손실이라도 비대칭적 구조면 유리. 내재가치 대비 큰 할인에 거래되는 기업을 찾는 것이 핵심. 전략: 위험 감내 수준과 가용 자금에 맞춰 전략을 세우고, 단기 시장 상황과 무관하게 실행하라는 결론. 구체 종목 언급: 대상 자산 목록에 해당하는 개별 종목 예측 발언은 없음. 아마존·애플·구글·맥도날드는 예시로만 언급.
다듬은 글
This video is fire, people, I'm telling you, fire! Hello fellow investors, how are you? In this video, I'll talk about Peter Lynch's investment philosophy and how much of what he says aligns with the current complex economic situation. This video is tough as nails. I won't tell you what this investor says we should do with our investments in a context of high interest rates and inflation, and if that's not convenient, analyzing the macroeconomy to invest in stocks.
Finally, in my conclusions, I'll tell you what I think about what Peter Lynch says and what I think we should do in this economic context. Peter Lynch predicted the 2023 stock markets 20 years in advance. Peter Lynch is a legendary investor. He managed the Mayheland fund at Fidelity between 1977 and 1990, where he achieved an annual return of 29.2%, outperforming the S&P 500.
The guy is a master of investment. He also wrote the book "One Up and One Street," which is one of the best-selling books on the markets of all time. Lynch isn't one to give many interviews, but after reviewing many of his... Looking at old comments searching for ideas applicable to today's market conditions heading into 2023, one is truly surprised by the number of things that are useful for the 2023 macroeconomic context.
I'm telling you, you will be surprised. Keep watching and tell me what you think. As you know, the main problem heading into 2023 is high inflation and rising interest rates, which are causing asset prices like stocks and real estate to suffer, and it seems they will continue to be major issues throughout 2023.
So, with this in mind, it's good to hear the opinion of someone like Peter Lynch on investing in times of inflation and rising interest rates. What he says might surprise you because of how relevant it is to the current environment. So, pay attention, be attentive, concentrate. People need to understand that there is a 100% correlation between what happens to a company's profits over several years and what happens to its stock.
If McDonald's has done very well as a company, its stock has done very well. People worry too much about monetary policy, so... What's happened with the price of oil? Who's the president? Who's been nominated for the Supreme Court? The ozone layer? None of that has anything to do with McDonald's profits.
If they go up in the next 10 years, the stock will go up. The last sentence is one of the most logical things you can hear in the world of investing, but how many people think that? How many? Many? Few? What do you say? Subscribe. The interviewer tells him the following: But what they'll tell you, Peter, is that, well, it's fun to tell you this.
Many investors think that these other things influence the amount of profit a particular company can have. And Peter Lynch takes up the challenge, rolls up his sleeves, and answers the following: If we're in a recession, people aren't going to spend as much money going to the movies or whatever they do.
Right? And therefore, you have to pay attention to these other things because they have repercussions. They're very important, but you have no idea what Alan Greenspan, the head of the Federal Reserve, is going to do. He can't predict interest rates. He would be the first one who could influence someone.
In that sense, but he can't predict them. He can't predict what long-term interest rates are going to be, one year from now, two years from now, three years from now. So what kind of superior beings are those who think they can time the markets? Well, I don't know, you tell me. But before you comment, subscribe.
Gris Pan is even surprised at how low rates are now. So how am I supposed to predict interest rates? How are you supposed to predict the economy? Surely you remember the recession of '82. Yes, 1982. We had a prime interest rate of 20%, 14% unemployment, 12% inflation. I do n't remember anyone telling me in 1980 or 1981 that that was going to happen, and suddenly we had the worst recession since the Depression.
I didn't read it in the newspaper. So it's crazy to think about these things. Do you understand? Where is this going? Don't worry, I'll explain. Its central point is that yes, macroeconomics are important. You can't deny that they can influence prices, but as an investor, it's one of those things that are...
Short term and you can't control it. So if you can't predict it and you can't control it, then why should you waste your time thinking about it? And this is a trap that many investors have fallen into lately, and to tell the truth, this is largely because it's what the media has been talking about lately.
There are plenty of charlatans everywhere, including the media: the faith has had another meeting and interest rates have gone up, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has all the CPI data for this month, blah blah blah. But you shouldn't get caught up in that kind of thing. As an investor, you should focus on each potential investment you want to make and judge each opportunity for itself.
Leave me your comment on this. Also, Peter Lynch adds in another of his relevant comments: stocks are not lottery tickets. Behind every stock is a company. If a company does well, the stocks do well. It's not that complicated. People get carried away too much and, first of all, try to predict the markets.
That's a total waste of time. Nobody can predict the stock market. They try to predict interest rates, whether there will be an interest rate hike. Certainly not. Many billionaires in The planet isn't made by predicting this, because if it were, there would be tons of billionaires, and nobody can predict the economy.
You became a millionaire by predicting the economy? Well, neither did I. Continuing with Lynch, there were many people in this room in 1981 and '82 when we had a prime interest rate of 20% with double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment. I don't remember anyone telling me this before 1981.
I didn't read or study all this stuff. I remember that later we had the worst recession since the Depression. What I'm trying to tell you is that it would be very useful to know what the stock market is going to be like. It would be great to know that the Dow Jones in such and such a year would be x, that we're going to have a large-scale recession where interest rates are going to be 12%.
These things are useful, but you never really know them; you never learn them. So I've always said that in investing, if you spend 14 minutes a year studying the economy, you've wasted 12 minutes. And I really believe that. I'm telling you, it's left a certain economist rolling in his grave, but who's going to tell him?
Something with those returns, I don't subscribe. The last one is a very interesting phrase. Peter Lynch really surprises with the idea that while the macroeconomy is turning the world, that's not really what we as long-term investors should focus on. For example, 2007 was the last time interest rates were higher than they are now, but imagine not buying a company like Amazon, Apple, or Google just because you were afraid of interest rates.
Out with the fear! If you want to learn more about how to deal with bear markets, I'll leave you this video so you can learn. Obviously, in hindsight, it's a bad decision, but even today, with the market down, there will still be many investors selling their assets to supposedly rescue their portfolios for fear that interest rates could rise much more and stocks would suffer.
As Peter Lynch says, what we really have to do is focus on the earnings of each individual company: how profitable they are. Are they becoming more profitable? How much money could they return to shareholders each year? Is it growing? These are the questions we have to ask ourselves. Therefore, we shouldn't focus on the macro.
But what should we do now that the S&P 500 has It's a sharp drop, now's the time to wait and see what happens or buy at a discount. Peter Lynch continues, "Hey, before I tell you, don't miss the bombshell! My conclusions are at the end of the video. Don't say I did n't warn you. Two and a half years ago, the market was at 4,000 points and in August it rose to 8,300.
Like every great rally, it sometimes pulls back, and that's healthy. I'd rather go down 1,000 points than go to 12,000. If we look at Japan, it went from 5,000 to 15,000 in South Korea, whose valuation at 15,000 was quite justified by all the gains and everything else. Then it went to 40,000. That caused seven years of inflated real estate.
People spend too much, and basically, they've been in a recession for five or six years because their market went too high. The index was clearly too high. That's not the point. In recent years, interest rates were at zero, and the market ran wild. But now we're seeing the opposite: interest rates are up, and the stock market is down." The key point the fan makes here is that you shouldn't worry about this; he even says it's healthy because when the market is hot and you do your analysis, for example, of cash flow, the conclusion you usually reach is that the stock has to perform perfectly over the next five years to really justify its current valuation.
Which assets are your preferred ones to invest in, or are you waiting to buy? Leave me your comment. But on the other hand, when the market falls, things start to change in favor of long-term investors, and that's really what you have to remember. When the market goes down, we have to stay focused on the long term.
Listen to the wise man again: I may have been right six out of ten times, but if I'm right, I win double or triple from time to time. That makes up for the times you lose 30 or 40 percent. In fact, you could be right a third of the time as long as you have very good results. When you're short, you can only win 90% of the time.
When you're long, you can win ten times or five times. So I think buying positions are the way to go. There's more; don't go away. Corporate products. They've grown around seven or eight percent a year, which means they double, but including dividends, approximately every 20 years they could quadruple, every 40 years multiply by eight, and so on.
Those are the kinds of numbers that interest you when investing in a 10-year bond. Today it's just over 2%, so I think the stock market is the best place to be. For the next 10, 20, or 30 years, the next two years... I've never known what the next two years are going to bring. Interesting is the philosophy of our friend Lynch; you always learn something new, that's why you have to subscribe.
We try to break the markets together in the future. That's a very good point. In the next two years, nobody knows exactly what will happen. The stock market could go up or it could go down, and there's no way of knowing which way it's going. There may be probabilities or indications that point one way, but no certainties.
Although in 10, 20, or 30 years, the likely outcome is much clearer: companies become more productive, earn more, or increase their valuations and stock prices. They tend to go up. Peter also adds, "We can flip a coin. I have no idea what the next thousand points will be. They may or may not go up. You can't have that attitude about it.
Nobody knows, and it's useless to try to guess. Corporate profits will be much higher in 10 years. They'll be much higher in 20 years. That's what you can rely on. Microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago. Staples didn't exist 20 years ago. Federal Express didn't exist 20 years ago. Twenty years ago, new companies emerged.
That's what makes Amchen have two $2 billion drugs. They did n't exist 20 years ago. The new companies that appear. That's what makes this country work. There's a reason our friend Peter Lynch made so much money. So that's the game: stay focused on the long term and pay attention to those companies that appear on your radar that look really solid, the ones you understand, the ones you think have a competitive advantage, the ones you think have good management teams, and finally, most importantly, the ones that offer a steep discount on their intrinsic value.
This has been the problem for the last few years." Unfortunately, there has been a lot of wonderful business out there, but basically, all of it has been priced so high that it needed to execute perfectly over the next 10 years for its valuation to be justified. Peter Lynch, speaking about exactly that scenario, tells you, "I think this company is going to make something in the future." So you have to look at yourself: if I'm right, how much am I going to make?
If I'm wrong, how much am I going to lose? That's the risk-reward ratio in stocks. We're talking about: if I'm right, I expect to double or triple my money; if I'm wrong, maybe I'm going to lose 30 or 40 percent. That would be a favorable ratio. How do you think the S&P 500 will perform this year? Comment, Enter, Subscribe, Click.
That might really be the secret to investing well in 2023: looking at these valuations. You know what we're looking for: good companies or assets, but also valued low enough that the risk-reward ratio is in our favor. For example, if you calculate that a company is going to grow 15% per year over the next 10 years, and if that happens, you think the stock could be worth something like $50.
So, if the stock is at $50 today, then it's a somewhat unusual point. If you buy the shares, the company has to execute everything perfectly to generate a return. What we're looking for are shares that you've calculated are worth $50 but are currently selling for $25. That's what Peter Lynch was saying.
In short, we're trying to find assets or very good companies that are valued well below their intrinsic value. That's when we take advantage of this market weakness, buying when others are selling, opening our wallets, for example. During this bear market, you don't know where to turn. Well, watch this video I'm leaving on the screen; it will help you.
Peter Lynch adds up all these public companies. This is the company I really like. The fundamentals are excellent, its earnings are doing well, the competitors are doing poorly. I think this company is doing very well, and suddenly the stock may have gone from $40 to $30 due to this decline. What would you say?
Wow! Here's an opportunity to buy. So you're trying to find companies you like... Anyway, if you liked them before and now they've dropped in price, they've just had a haircut. In conclusion, based on what Peter Lynch tells us, we should focus on finding discounted assets or companies— those that you know were previously fairly priced but have now fallen into bargain territory thanks to market movements.
The only thing we shouldn't do is get too bogged down in the thicket of macroeconomics and end up panicking, blocking our good long-term investment strategies because of short-term fears. Remember to create a strategy according to your risk tolerance—whether you prefer low or low volatility in your portfolio—and adjust it to the money you have available.
Then execute it regardless of short-term market conditions. I don't know until next time. Subscribe and leave me a comment.
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