저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아는 올해 108% 상승 후 조정을 받았으나 여전히 S&P500 최고 수익률 종목 중 하나. AI 투자는 실재하며 수요는 강하고 공급 문제가 핵심. 반도체 과잉공급이 해소되는 국면이며 금리 인하 기대가 긍정 요인. 엔비디아는 PER 약 30배 수준으로 과열 아님. 일부 대형 투자자의 매도는 차익실현 가능성으로 해석.
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let's first please acquire some perspective nvidia's stock is still up 108% for the year after reporting a strong quarter did you know that the S and P 500's top performance is still that it's no little accomplishment either as the $638 billion company I bet you were unaware of its size has seen a roughly 23% increase in stock price so far this year what is causing their shares to eventually roll over then do to a recent unfavorable narrative about AI we are aware that the hyperscalers those massive corporations sometimes referred to as The Magnificent 7 have been making significant investments in AI technology many people now view nvidia's relative underperformance as suggesting that they're spending too much and that it's not sustainable however Nvidia itself which lately became the focal point of tech negativity was the true motivator how bad is it okay I'm just making this stuff up today I heard a debate over how long we will be haunted by the Nvidia share be Market the bear Market even though it was down almost 30 points from its peak they somehow failed to highlight that this stock is still the SNP 500's best performing stock so far this year what took place to revive this dormant stock it's instructive to observe the movements of equity such as Nvidia broadcom or even GP Morgan vice president Harris position on carbon emissions during last night's debate may have contributed to the visceral positive movement in the alternative energy stocks making it dangerous to conclude otherwise than that they are struggling to produce its scale that makes perfect sense however the issue has essentially been resolved is a supply issue rather than a demand issue demand is soaring last but not least there are others who fear that we are on the verge of a recession which could affect various electronic devices and affect the semis however an easing cycle will support the economy and the FED is set to lower interest rates next week goodbye additionally we received an incredibly positive report from Oracle this very evening many of the positive developments coincided with the establishment of AI data centers well not too awful I believe that the semiconductor stocks have ultimately fallen off far too quickly we still like this group for all the reasons we did earlier this year the rise in AI spending is real Oracle told us this evening that a significant amount of money is being invested to expand the infrastructure more significantly chips are not just about AI the semiconductor sector has been experiencing over supply for the last few quarters and now we're finally witnessing some outstanding sales growth yes we are moving upward and have passed the point of equilibrium in July the Semus experienced sequential sales gain for the fourth consecutive month as we emerge from a supply glut do you really want to leave this group we are entering one you ought to do it we should wait for the hot money to come out of that one even though I would love to pound the table from Vidia before the stock truly plummets too many sunny Patriots some are soldiers thanks Thomas Payne need to raise the white flag today I heard it described as a no man's land that's nice additionally among the other chip makers you could discover greater reductions than Nvidia AMD predicted $2 billion in sales for 2024 when it announced the Mi 300 last December they increased the expectation of product sales to $3.5 billion in late January they increased it to $4 billion at the end of April they raised it to $4.5 billion in July the most recent Time For Heaven's Sake what does the market want all things considered amd's most recent quarter was quite successful with better than expected projections for the current quarter modest sales and profitability B expectations the announcement caused the stock to rise 4% I was correct but it was just before the market as a whole was destroyed by the collapse of the Y carry trade people seem to have forgotten about that fantastic quarter you claim that there isn't an AI bubble compared to the previous major Tech Bubble at least 52 times forward profits in 2000 is one of the comparisons you made 24 times now net income margin 28% presently 16% back then where can you find worth at what point do you say all right for now when do they get cheap enough for you that would allow people who aren't in them to potentially start establishing a position yes I agree that you should have a list of businesses that you hope to own in the future as a result Nvidia is 25% lower than its 52- we Peak to put that value valuation into perspective Charles it is currently trading at a forward p/ Eed that is more than 36 times they produce the most cuttingedge chips and are the largest and greatest chip maker in the world compared to chip Pavo which makes burrios they are selling at a lower valuation okay so I'm happy you said Nvidia since it's at the epicenter isn't it it is the storm's eye the pace is set by Nvidia the problem is that several well-known billionaire investors have recently sold 9 million shares were sold by Ken Griffin 3 million shares were sold by David terer 1.5 million shares were sold by dren Miller these are the biggest sharpest people in the world Steve Cohen Nvidia is now the dumb money play according to the narrative on Wall Street to that how would you respond I would be curious to see what proportion of their portfolios were invested in Nvidia are they only taking some gains and cutting profits there the oral iCal narrative and the company's recent recovery intrigue me greatly the hyperscalers and vious tools have been presented to you software has had difficulties this collaboration with aest is what we seen with oracle's report last night and the subsequent rebound they are stating that the customer can continue to use the Oracle platform and software in the background regardless of the hyperscaler they select huk observed a really robust Revenue stream that in my opinion is just more proof that the AI narrative is still in its early to mid-stage stages yes indeed to tell the truth I think it's fantastic that it's expanding Beyond picks and shovels hopefully I also have Oracle subscribers in any case my next guest advises choosing the obvious option he is still optimistic about Nvidia a company he believes has enormous potential John Porter is now joining us at Newton Investment Management he serves as the chief in investment officer John the chip company is cyclical and experiences Cycles the debate I believe boils down to whether or not you believe Nidia will face one of the several setbacks the sector frequently encounters Chris Grandy made this claim the other day arguing that it can perhaps circumvent some of the historical cyclical difficulties the sector has faced yes Kelly you have a valid question additionally there are undoubtedly certain cyclical challenges to consider I I mean there are a lot of cyclical headwinds in the semiconductor industry right now if you look outside of AI however sometimes it's beneficial to take a step back and look at the big picture as investors we frequently complicate stories beyond what is necessary and occasionally we simply need to concentrate on the clear-cut narrative regarding Vidia I examine the current state of artificial intelligence you heard what Oracle and many others had to say last night I firmly believe believe that artificial intelligence is a game-changing technology it will take some time for the use cases to develop but yes there are some questions however this technology will be revolutionary infrastructure is something you must invest in as part of that infrastructure expansion to enable AI vdia is unquestionably the most significant and well-positioned firm additionally Nvidia is currently trading at 30 times the earnings for the upcoming 12 months this is isn't a bubble stock you know given how frequently it is discussed one would assume that it is that isn't a bubble though at 30 times earnings it's one of the biggest underweights in mutual fund Holdings if you look at them despite all of the excitement and attention that Nvidia has received over the past few years I just believe that the risk reward ratio is highly appealing today that's intriguing because it may be the Lan Community it is underweight in the mutual fund industry I wanted to bring up the topic of market capitalization once more remember when it was a $3 trillion business you could have predicted that the shares would double from here but will the company truly be worth $6 trillion still it is $2.6 trillion as a result several investors stated well I might lose 40% of my money so I don't want to stay for a 10% or 20% gain I would like to attend the double can the market value of this Corporation reach $5 trillion it's difficult to say nothing would be excluded in my opinion Kelly I believe that's a really
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