저자: RayDalio/영상진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 결론: 진행자는 현재 경기를 대공황급 '붕괴'로 보며, 기술·온라인 소비 중심 종목에 집중하라는 입장이다. [레이 달리오 클립] 달리오는 현 상황을 1930년대식 대공황에 가깝다고 보며, 과거처럼 통화 발행·재정 지출·채무 재조정·부의 재분배가 쓰인다고 설명했다. 주요 회복 기간은 보통 2~3년으로, 이후 혁신과 적응으로 재건된다고 봤다. 장기적으로 GDP는 단기 하락 후 회복되는 패턴이 500년 역사에서 반복된다고 주장했다. [진행자 주장] 대공황 기간은 약 43개월, 글로벌 GDP 26% 하락, 실업률 24% 수준이었다고 제시했다. 현재 상황은 1930년대와 달리 디지털·인터넷 경제라 차이가 있다고 봤다. [기업 생존 주장] 최근 파산 기업 21곳과 자영업(특히 외식업) 폐업 우려를 언급했다. 부동산은 경기부양책 종료 시 급락 가능성을 거론했다. [S&P500 관련 주장] S&P500 기업 평균 수명이 1958년 61년에서 현재 18년 미만으로 줄었다고 주장했다. 2027년까지 현재 S&P500 기업의 75%가 사라질 것이라는 맥킨지 전망을 인용했다. 지수 투자는 비추천했다. [투자 아이디어] ARK Invest(파괴적 혁신 ETF) 우호적 평가. 기술주는 조정은 있겠으나 강세 지속 전망. 스트리밍(넷플릭스, 디즈니+), 게임, 식품(코스트코, 월마트), 대마, 주류 선호. [리스크] 경기부양책 종료, 모기지 유예 종료 시 부동산 리스크. 대마 산업은 과거 버블 붕괴 경험 있음. [출연자 전망] 달리오는 경기 붕괴 후 2~3년 내 회복, 장기 혁신 낙관론. 진행자는 대공황식 침체 인식 및 기술주 강세 전망.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's up so in today's video i want to talk about the global depression this was something being talked about a lot in march and april when the health crisis first struck since then we haven't heard this term being thrown around much but i want to play a clip from ray dalio now if you don't know who ray dalio is he's an american billionaire hedge fund manager who served as co-chief investment officer of bridgewater associates since 1985.
basically this guy knows money he's really well respected in the investment community so i want to play a clip of him talking about the global depression and then after the clip i'm going to give you guys a few tips on how you can safely invest in the current state of the economy i think that we're headed into a global depression yes but i want to be careful about what i use the word you know like to be technical the word the um the word is an evocative word that could be scary and so on so what do you mean by a depression okay something like happened in the 1930s so just to repay 1929 to 1932 there was a fall in the economy and are very double-digit unemployment rates and a magnitude of fall in the economy like about 10 do i think we're in that yes how was that dealt with 1933 um what they did is they printed a lot of money then and the government came out with the same type of programs that we're having now yes okay same thing zero interest rates hit zero same thing okay same dynamics and then there is the the that money causes an expansion from that point how long does it take for the stock market to uh exceed its highs or how long does it take for the economy to exceed its former highs a long time okay do i think that's what we're in yes that's what we're in we've seen that happen repeatedly in history you saw many many times it's just the most recent one and there's a structure to that so yes this is not a recession this is a breakdown an operation that i'm just describing in terms of how it's dealt with the production of money and credit and all of that that's what we're in and so you've talked about there's sort of four levers um to recovery after depression cutting spending also known as austerity debt restructuring or forgiveness redistribution of wealth through taxes potentially and printing of money some of these things you've mentioned um will those things get us out of this situation since as you you feel it's happened before um but how would you think about balancing these tools right now uh yeah those are those those are the tools through since paternity basically since recorded history those are the ones that operated and um i think what you're going to see is um a combination you're seeing of uh printing money and um redistribution and and i think it'll last these things happen pretty quickly um there they last maybe a couple of three years in terms of that process and then you have a rebuilding and they're dealt with um with creativity the sort of the greatest force through time is inventiveness human inventiveness adaptability so you're going to see these restructurings happen and you're going to see the kind of inventiveness that you just saw from marco okay and it's the power of that adaptation that is the greatest power i did a a study which is on linkedin if anyone wants to see it and it takes um it goes back 500 years and it shows um real gdp in other words the economic activity going back there and there's a line and you don't see these depressions as we're calling them even on that line they barely wiggles when you go into it and you look at the that piece that's what it looks like gdp falls 10 percent unemployment goes up it and it passes and because the greatest force is the force of adaptation and inventiveness if we can operate well together so that's what i think it's going to look like over this period of time it'll pass it the world will be very different there'll be a new world order but it will pass and will be inventive because what we're dealing with now is just money and credit money and credit is just digital i mean there's no there is real good services you know those are real but everything else is just accounting and so when you change the digits and you work those things out and you work yourself through that takes you know a couple of years at most kind of and then you come back into a restructured environment and it could be said that it is really healthy in many ways because it is a stress test because if you look at history people have gotten sometimes they get weaker or they're not prepared to in many ways uh weaker in terms of maybe they don't build enough savings and they operate that or maybe they emphasize luxuries over necessities it's a reorienting type of experience that in many ways makes us healthy even appreciating the basics of life okay so basically ray dalio says we are in a depression now i happen to actually agree with this i don't think most people realize how bad the state of the economy is so let's talk about this but first let's see what a depression is so the last great depression was in the 1930s it began around 1929 the duration of was about 43 months as you can see here the global gdp declined 26 peak global unemployment 24 so this kind of sounds like what we're going through today now if i left this video at just that most beginner investors would probably sell all their stocks and just hold all their money in cash and gold and anything safe and if we were in 1930 that was that is probably something i'd be doing as well but in today's environment it is so much different than in the 1930s you see we live in the digital age with technology and the internet that is truly the big difference because if we ignore the internet and look at the brick and mortar businesses that we have they're actually being affected very similar to how 1930 was affecting them as you can see here this is a list of 21 companies that have all gone bankrupt since march i mean just look through this list taylor brands gnc tuesday morning jcpenney like these are massive companies pierre one all gone bankrupt and this list is continuing to grow but it's not only the big businesses that are gone under it's small businesses it says here small businesses are dying by the thousands and no one is tracking the carnage i think people are truly just ignoring what's actually going on in the economy today i saw a statistic that in canada 60 of small businesses are expected to go under i think the majority of them are in the small business restaurant sector restaurants is just absolutely a massacre right now for them so it's really not looking good but again this is just kind of being ignored right now i feel like so yeah we have small businesses and big businesses all going bankrupt we have the real estate that's looking really rocky and once the stimulus slows down and the mortgage deferrals go away i mean you never know we could also see a massive real estate collapse i wouldn't count that out right now but there is light at the end of the tunnel right now there's actually amazing investment opportunities you just need to know where to find them but first let me show you a little statistic about the s p 500 so the average lifespan of a company listed in s p 500 was 61 years in 1958.
today it's less than 18 years and mckenzie believes that in 2027 75 of the companies currently quoted on the s p 500 will have disappeared that is insane why isn't people talking about that let me explain to you why this is occurring it's because technology and destructive innovation half of the companies in s p 500 are doing extremely poorly and they're being disrupted and losing business to these other technologies this is why i really don't suggest investing this in p 500 you're investing into a pool of companies that are half doing good half doing bad i mean i'm pretty sure most of us can do better stock picking than that so yeah really just times have changed in s p 500 and the total landscape of investing has changed a lot over the last hundred years okay so just to recap that small businesses are going under big businesses are going under companies in s p 500 don't last nearly as long as they used to because they're being disrupted by technologies so right now as investors you really got to think about what you're investing in and if it's future proof is it being disrupted or is it disrupting industry that is something you need to take into consideration so over the last six months we've seen tech stocks perform amazingly and i don't think this is gonna stop in the next few years anytime soon there might be the odd correction pull back because they get ahead of themselves that's normal but they are going to continue to be strong so in my opinion if you're looking to invest in something i would personally avoid the s p 500 for now and i'd be looking at something more like arc invest arc invest solely invest in disruptive innovation and they're very good at it i really suggest you guys researching this company i have a few videos put out on them on my channel so please check them out i break down what arc invest is in my opinion they're probably the best etf you could be looking at right now but if you're not interested in investing in an etf and you're more into investing in individual stocks well i do have some sectors that i believe are going to continue to perform very well because let's be honest right now there's not a lot of places where people can spend their money you can't go to sporting games anymore concerts are dawn nightclubs aren't really a thing people still dine out a little bit there's really not much reason to buy fancy clothes because where are you going to go out with them i mean yes people still go to dinner but i mean there's just a lot less opportunity to dress up and to go places so in a lot of different areas people just aren't spending how they used to but the funny thing is people are saving at higher rates than they have in the last like 20 plus years probably because the stimulus checks and there's just not a lot of places to spend money so let me show you where people are spending money so it's a very strong stead home environment now so as an investor we should be looking at places like netflix disney plus video games cannabis alcohol and different food companies such as costco and walmart and other ones as well so let me just break down why i picked these so netflix and disney plus these are just streaming services in general since there's no more movie theaters you can go to people still want to watch tv and watch movies the really only option is streaming services so i'd be looking there for sure and then video games is pretty self-explanatory people are staying home people don't have as much entertainment so more people get into video games that's going to continue to do well as well well food well that's just essential people always need to buy food they always will and because there's less people eating out and more people eating at home that's why costco and walmart been performing so well they're gonna thrive in this environment and i mean they probably continue well it's a pretty safe spot to put your money and then when we look at cannabis and alcohol well i mean these are just things that people will love in any environment that's why i really like the cannabis space actually is because it's really hard to disrupt it's a product that people are always going to love and the current health crisis it's gonna thrive and even without the health crisis it's gonna thrive in 2018 we saw a massive cannabis bubble that bursted and i think it really scared a lot of investors away because they lost a ton of money but the bubble has bursted and now we see what companies are actually strong and moving forward out of it so yeah guys that's all i have for this video i hope you found it informative and i hope that this changes your thought process on how you're looking at stocks right now i'm sure a lot of you already are thinking this way but maybe not everybody is and it's important to really take a lot more into consideration right now than you ever have in your investing career so yeah if you learned anything please drop a thumbs up on the video it helps out the channel a ton and it gives me the motivation to continue to do these videos and feel free to subscribe if you want to see more stock related content and yeah guys i'll see you in the next one
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