저자: InvestingWithSpenny · 외국인
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결론: 영상 화자는 NIO(니오)의 단기(수개월) 조정 가능성을 언급하지만 장기적으로는 유망하다고 본다. [니오 주가·시장 상황] 현재 니오 주가는 약 46달러, 시가총액 약 620억 달러로, 1년 새 약 24배 상승했다고 설명한다. [레이 달리오 및 기관 매수] 브리지워터가 2020년 9월 30일 기준 약 150만 주(약 3,330만 달러)를 보유, 직전 분기 대비 약 83% 증가했다고 언급한다. 기관 보유 비중은 약 50%로 제시된다. [시트론 리서치 하락 전망] 시트론은 목표주가 25달러를 철회하며 니오가 단기적으로 주가의 최대 50%까지 하락할 수 있다고 주장했다. 화자는 이 주장에 대해 근거 설명이 있는 점을 평가한다. [밸류에이션·리스크] PSR이 약 40으로 테슬라(약 14)의 세 배에 달해 부담스럽다고 지적한다. 베타 2.61, 주당순이익 -44 등 변동성·적자 리스크도 언급한다. [단기 전망] 다음 분기 실적이 기대에 못 미치면 30% 안팎의 조정이 올 수 있다고 본다. 단기적으로는 46달러 부근에서 횡보 가능성이 있다고 말한다. [장기 전망 및 투자 조언] 전기차 시장에서 테슬라와 함께 선두 가능성이 있어 장기 전망은 밝다고 평가한다. 이미 보유한 투자자는 계속 보유, 신규 추가 매수는 자제하고 매도는 하지 않을 것을 권한다. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기(수개월) 하락 조정 가능성 존재, 장기는 긍정적이며 현 시점 신규 매수는 신중히.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's up so in today's video i want to cover neo now i have some good news and bad news uh but mostly good the bad news isn't necessarily bad news but there could be some downward pressure on neo share price in the short term so we'll be covering that later in the video but first i'm going to be going through the good news and just looking at neo right now where it stands so as of right now neo is trading about 46 a share and they've gone on a really spectacular run over this past year it's literally 24x in the last year so this is pretty phenomenal so it's not too surprising to see that some people and some researchers are suggesting that neil could see some downside in the short term and really i mean it doesn't take a genius to look at this and be like yeah they could see a correction so nothing alarming the business still looks very strong in the long term but the good news i want to cover is actually about ray dalio investing into neo so if you don't know who ray dalio is he's a billionaire hedge fund manager and philanthropist who has served as co-chief investment officer of bridgewater associates since 1985 and he founded bridgewater in 1975 in new york now this guy is a billionaire he's one of the smartest investors of all time for most of people in the investment community they definitely know who ray dalio is he has some very interesting philosophies and he's very bullish on china so it's not surprising to see that he's buying neo and i've been trying to kind of push china as well lately i've been looking at emerging markets in previous videos and china is one of the most compelling emerging markets coming up and that's the same kind of mindset that ray dalio has looking at china it's looking like a really good opportunity for investors so anyways let's take a look at ray dalio and how much of neo he's been buying so this was two months ago says ray dalio bought 6.6 million worth of neo stock this is outdated he's actually bought a lot more now and then we go here to yahoo finances dalio's bridgewater nearly double stake in neo as institutional investors pile into ev maker now neo has been seeing a lot of institutional investments lately which is really good it's a really positive sign for the stock so bridgewater associates the world's biggest hedge fund with over 130 billion in assets under management held about 1.5 million shares of neo valued at 33.3 million as of september 30th and this was according to the recent 13f filing this represents an 83 increase from the 856 000 shares the hitch fund held at the end of june which was valued at 6.6 million so they've purchased a massive amount more shares of neo now it's obviously still a pretty small portion of portfolio considering they hold about 33 million worth of neo where they have 130 billion in asset management so very small portion but it still does say something when you see um a credible fund like bridgewater buying into neo now it's not just bridgewater though that's buying into neo it's actually a lot of institutions you can see here the institutional ownership of neo is about valued at 11.315 billion so 11 billion out of what about a 60 billion market cap right now so institutions are definitely piling into it according to fintel institutional ownership now accounts for 50 of neo's outstanding shares of one billion so there you go uh institutional ownerships are buying up neo at the masses right now uh it's a good sign if you're a retail investor that got in before this because that's really the secret to making multiple x return on your money is getting in before institutional investments if you get an after it makes things a bit more difficult to double triple 10x your money but we'll go into that what i think if neo still has a long ways to run or if we're gonna see um a correction in the short term i'll give some of my thoughts on that but the next thing i do want to cover it does talk about down here the increased interest among institutional investors reflects their confidence in the chinese ev maker in this future this comes in contrast to citrons call what suggests an unsustainable evaluation now citron recently released a research paper that is suggesting that neil could lose 50 of its value in the short term and i'm going to cover that just in a second we're not going to go into much detail on that though a lot of other youtubers have already covered citron's research paper so i'll just give some my thoughts on that okay so this is citron's research paper now it says here citron pulls the plug on neo two years after our controversial recommendation price target of 25 so two years ago neo was trading into seven dollars when citron recommended buying the stock as the company and his charismatic leader leader uh william lee in treat us after a rocky road of trading neo has found itself in unchartered territory that can never be justified by its current current standing in the chinese ev market or its near-term prospects so if you haven't read through citron i suggest you do so but there's literally been like every youtuber has already covered this i won't bother but um yeah essentially they are suggesting that neo has over ran itself and it's going to see a harsh correction in the short term and actually they do kind of try to justify what they're talking about which i like because there's a lot of papers out there or shorts that are just saying the stock is going to lose half its value without actually trying to justify its reasons where citron it makes a compelling argument i guess but let's just take a look at what neo has done in the last year and it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction now if we look at yahoo finance here we can see that neo is trading at about 46 okay their market capital is what's important their market cap is 62 billion so it's a pretty big company now considering this company was not very big a year ago which i'll show you just a second uh but another thing to take into mind here is their beta is 2.61 now beta represents how volatile the stock is so because it's 2.6 month this is mean like basically this beta has worked in the favor of neil this past year it's shot up like literally 24x in just the last year and of course their beta is gonna be high then because it's increased in value very fast but on the flip side because it does have such a high beta it could lose its value just as fast so you got to keep that in mind with this and then they have an incredibly negative eps of negative 44.
but if you're investing in the long term you shouldn't be too worried about this they're definitely going to be able to clear up this eps and probably turn it positive in the not too distant future now just to understand how much value neo has actually increased over this past year you can see in september 30th of 2019 this company had a market cap of 1.67 billion now fast forward one year we're at 60 billion so they've almost 60xed in a year which is just phenomenal this is not something you see very often and if you look at their price to sales ratio their price to sales ratio was 1.81 at that time now it's at 40.
now 40 is a steep price of sales ratio for any company in the world that is something that you need to understand if we look at tesla for example tesla at the same time last year had a 1.67 ps ratio just like neo but now tesla's price of sales ratio is at 14. so just think about for a second tesla which is you know by most metrics considered overvalue and most people would consider the stock overvalued has a ps ratio of 14 and then neo has a ps of 40.
so that is a little bit alarming honestly that is really insane considering its ps ratio is three times that of tesla however then the day what moves the stock it's all supply and demand if there's more buyers than sellers the stock is going to trade upwards so until some kind of sentiment changes in the market where people start to get worried about neo and its valuation and maybe it can't keep up to this kind of growth then at that time maybe we could see a harsh correction but we're still seeing a lot of demand for the stock it's still trading higher month over month anyways this is something to keep in mind it is a little bit scary to see a ps of 40.
so yeah in the short term i'm under the belief that neo is going to probably have a hard time running any higher than this it might just stay stagnant at 46 and if they blow out their next quarter then maybe it could run higher but uh they got some serious expectations to meet so if they don't meet those expectations then yeah you could see a pretty harsh correction um but if you got in neo at a decent price i would not worry at all and again this is just kind of short term long term neo is looking really good it's definitely tackling the biggest ev market in the world and it's well positioned to possibly be the leader of that market it's really just between neo and tesla so yeah don't worry if you're a long-term investor just be aware if you do see a 30 ish correction it's likely because it has overran itself and it is due for correction at some point this isn't obviously sustainable to be 20 forexing its valuation every year at some point that's either going to slow down or correct and then move up slowly as it should oh yeah so anyways guys that's really all i have for this video i just wanted to give you an update on ray dalio who's just a super credible billionaire investor and in charge of the biggest hedge fund in the world is buying neo and i found that actually some pretty good news and ray dalio was something who i follow myself and he's the one who got me interested in buying chinese stocks so yeah anyways there's that and of course i want to make sure you guys are just aware of the risk of the short term that neo could see that downward pressure but again nobody knows this is all supply and demand of how many people are buying and selling the stock something needs some kind of sediment needs to change in the market for this to actually drop stocks don't just suddenly plummet 30 percent because their valuation reaches a point where it's super high evaluation isn't what makes the stock drop it's sediment that makes it drop so yeah if i had to guess on it i would say in the next few months neo could drop a bit but definitely long term this is still an amazing buy i would just be holding it myself and not buying any more shares right now but i definitely wouldn't be looking to sell any shares of neo either but yeah that's a lot for this video please drop a thumbs up on the video if you like this content and feel free to subscribe to this channel i do upload stock videos almost every day of the week and i try to find content that's going to benefit you guys and uh yeah anyways thanks for watching until then i'll see you guys in the next video you
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