저자: Benny · 외국인
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결론: 피터 린치 조언에 따라 팔란티어는 단기 매도보다 10~20년 성장 스토리로 보유하는 장기 종목이라는 주장. 린치 발언 요지: 자신의 가장 큰 실수는 성장주를 너무 일찍 판 것(토이저러스·홈디포). 성장주는 매도 시점을 '10년·20년 스토리'가 유효한지로 판단해야 하며, 이익이 계속 늘면 주가는 따라 오른다고 함. 벤니의 해석: 팔란티어는 경기민감주가 아니라 데이터 사업이라 경기와 무관하게 성장 가능. 2003년 설립 후 소프트웨어·데이터 혁명 초입이라 본다. 아마존 사례처럼 본격 성장까지 시간이 걸렸다고 주장. 팔란티어 전망: 1년 내 큰 수익은 기대하지 말고 20~30년 장기 보유 종목으로 봄. 단기 주가는 멀티플에 따라 변동하지만 이익 성장이 이어지면 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 출연자 관련: 자막 속 린치 클립은 2002년 인터뷰이며 벤니 본인이 진행. 리스크: 영상은 단기 밸류에이션 부담이나 하락 가능성을 구체적으로 다루지 않음. 린치 발언 중 과거 실패 사례 언급 있으나 팔란티어 관련 하방 리스크는 미언급.
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hey guys benny here so in today's video we are going to listen to peter lynch he is one of the greatest investors of all time and i'm going to play a clip from back in 2002 where he explains when to sell a stock and then after the clip we are going to discuss how his advice relates to pound here so we can formulate a plan exactly when to sell this stock but before we do get into this video make sure to drop it a big thumbs up if you find it valuable and feel free to subscribe if you want to see more content now before i do play this clip guys i really urge you to go read peter lynch's books uh one up on wall street is an absolute classic i have read definitely well over a dozen investment books and i gotta say that is a book i keep on going back to to refresh my memory on you will learn so much from it and you absolutely will make more money in the stock market but it really is true if you read books from peter lynch warren buffett great investors like that you will make more money in the stock market and you'll feel so much more confident investing you'll have way more conviction to really go deep into your high conviction stocks anyways that's my little rant around reading investment books highly recommend it especially if you're new to the stock market but anyways let's get straight into this clip when you were actively managing money you presumably are under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well i think my greatest mistakes are probably you know it's funny in a stock all you can lose 100 percent i've done that but your great mistakes are selling a good company and then doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold they call them the 10 baggers so some of my mistakes are saying oh my god this stock is too high and i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game i sold toys r us way too early it went up 20 fold after i sold i did the same thing at home depot those are probably two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a growth company you have to say walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15 the united states and they could say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23.
so for the next four decades then around the country so you have to say to yourself in this stock i have a 10-year story a 20-year story i'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what i do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in america have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy a company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's an electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens the market if the dow jones today was a thousand or 500 you had made a lot of money mcdonald's you would have made a lot of money in johnson johnson you want to make a lot of money gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would have lost money in burlington industries i recommended that in 1969 i think it's i think it's gone from 34 to 2 with no stock splits these earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world dump out a thousand i sometimes get angry male particularly during bear markets saying so-and-so recommended such-and-such and it went down well uh how often did you come up with a clinker well this this is a funny business you don't have to be right even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose twenty to thirty percent so when you buy a cycle i say itself how much can i lose and how much can i make and you ought to be able to make a lot you see stocks are risky i mean look look at how much we lost on et look how much less than xerox these were quality companies you know you could lose a lot in the stock so i say yourself how much can i make because i want to buy a stock if i'm right i'm going to make a double or triple does your own confidence ever get shaken every day i think the market's going to go up you know i keep calling a lot of my company so i keep calling the company okay guys so first thing we can rule out pound here is not a cyclical stock uh you don't need to sell it during poor economic conditions such as automakers you know automakers like ford gm when there's a big recession and people don't have as much money those stocks will drop massively palantir is in the data business it's going to boom regardless and we've seen that over this past year some examples pierre lynch gave there was toys r us and home depot they still had massive room to expand back in the day when this was filmed in 2002 thus their earnings had plenty of room to grow which would result in share appreciation uh when a company increases its earnings over time that is really the fundamental reason why a stock should appreciate and the example he gives on walmart is when walmart was actually a high growth stock so ask yourself now do you think pound here is going to expand his business become more valuable grow its earnings and really how far along are we in the story of palantir in my opinion the story is just starting the company was founded in 2003 and in my opinion we are now just entering that software revolution where pound here will really shine now i see quite a few comments people saying oh palantir is you know an 18 year old company hasn't really produced earnings why would they grow now let me give you an example of amazon amazon was founded in the early 1990s and really didn't take off until closer to 2010 took about 20 years for that company to really hit prime time and in my opinion palantir is just hitting prime time now think about it 2003 yes there was data out there but data wasn't growing anything close to what it is now and companies weren't utilizing data back then as they are now and i've said this before in previous videos but i really don't think people can comprehend how important software and data is going to be in the future if you look at the statistics of how fast data is growing it is in a serious exponential mode right now so i don't think anybody can say really how valuable the company palantir is but i can tell you right now this isn't the end of their story it's really just the beginning in my opinion um so anyways guys as far as selling palantir i am thinking you know 20 to 30 years out it is a long term stock here you know don't expect to make massive returns over even the next year high growth stocks trade on different multiples year to year so we don't know how the stock market is going to value it in the short term but if they increase their earnings over the next 10 20 30 years you're gonna see massive gains in the stock and that's really how i'm looking at pound here right now anyways guys make sure to comment down below give me your opinions around this thesis i'd love to hear when you guys think is a good time to sell palantir a lot of very mixed opinions around the stock so let's get some conversation going in the comments section anyways hope you guys enjoyed this video make sure to subscribe if you want to see more content like this and i'll see you guys on the next video you
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