저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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2월 증시는 AI 성장주 약세와 필수소비재 강세가 특징이었고, 인플레이션 우려와 금리 하락이 엇갈렸다. 사모신용 리스크와 이란 전쟁 가능성, 유가 17% 상승이 불안 요인이다. 노르웨이지안 크루즈는 디즈니 인수 등 매각 가능성을 언급했고, 브로드컴은 AI 우려 속 보유하기 어렵다고 평가했다. 마벨은 실적 전 매수를 권했고, 크라우드스트라이크는 장기 보유 견해를 유지했다.
다듬은 글
Jim Kramer says Wall Street just sent you a warning. February killed your precious AI darlings and crowned boring boomers like Pepsi and Proctor and Gamble as the new growth stocks. Watch until the end because Kramer reveals the one highquality name he's actually willing to buy before earnings even in this anti-growth anti- AI tape and exactly where he'd start scaling in
92%. The some of the biggies really getting killed. [screaming] It was a month of indecision because inflation's running hotter. But it was also a month that should have been better thanks to falling interest rates. The rate rates are really getting low again. On the other hand, it was a month where it dawned on people that obscure terms like private credit could spell real trouble if something goes wrong.
I'm looking at you blue owl. I don't know if you are ready for this amount of scrutiny. Will the negativity continue into March? We might find out this very weekend as the president seems eager to go to war with Iran. Uh the markets haven't been rattled by his saber rattling. Although oil's up 17% year to date and when I spoke to Carl Ktonia today it oil's become such a big part of the inflation story that well people are getting nervous.
Now we are washing oil. So let's not freak out please. That rally came entirely from predictions that a ramble shut down the straight of Hermoose and that's the most important oil artery on earth. Tomorrow, we'll find out what a Buffet list buff bulletin sounds like from Bergkshire Hathaway. That's right.
I'm betting the new CEO, Greg Ael, will opt for a much more low-key style than his predecessor. We'll listen for words of wisdoms, though. Maybe we'll get some. I think he's a business person trying to make as much money for you as he can. Look out. Norwegian Cruise reports on Monday and the activists at Elliot Management are after this company to start performing a little more like the standouts, Royal Caribbean and Viking Holdings.
Elliot's had some real wins of late. Honeywell, Southwest Air, Texas JM Smucker. The latter true shocker given that it includes Hostess brands, a junk food that was supposed to be obliterated by the GOP-1s. My suggestion for Norwegian crews, sell yourself to Disney, which is desperate for ships as there's a big ship shortage.
It's an 11 billion company that's Norwegian. Disney could write a check like this and sell the smaller ships, refurbish only the largest ones, and make the cruise line a much bigger part of their business instantly. That matters. Disney stock is stuck in cable TV purgatory. It could soar if it finds a way to build itself as a more of a vacation paradise company.
I know it would be radical and it might look it might take some time to retune the fleet to Disney standards. By my count, there are at least 10 Norwegian ships that could be made over as Disney ships. Right now, Disney has seven ships, soon to be eight. They're more upscale than Norwegian, but they can be fixed.
I think it's a smart move as ordering a new cruise ship takes about 5 years. It's the time that's the problem, not just the money. Now, time is is right for Disney if they do it. You know why? Because the new CEO, Josh Dearro, well, he's ran the cruise ship business. So, I say we buy Norwegian and put the emphasis emphasis on entertainment and not linear TV, which is now would be behind us.
David Faber and I talk about linear TV all the time, and we know how terrible it's doing. Tuesday morning's back to retail. Target's got a new CEO, Mike Fideli, and I imagine we're gonna start with him holding him accountable instantly, even though he just got the job. His predecessor, Brian Cordell, took matters into his own hands immediately when he became CEO and shed the money losing Canadian division, which was just crushing Target.
It was a gutsy thing, and people loved him immediately. Target situation is a difficult one. It lacks the scale and reach of Amazon, Walmart, or Costco. Mike's gonna have to reinvent to stay relevant, I think, and he's got to do it quickly. Best Buy reports. Now, this is a tricky one. Uh, we keep hearing that they'll be punished for having too many devices that are going up in price because of the cost of memory.
The cost of memory, like those little semiconductors, really seems to matter these days to even the PC business or the gaming business. After the close, Crowd Strike reports. Now, this is an incredibly skilled outfit that protects a huge number of clients from cyber criminals. Its CEO, George Curts, is a maniac for stopping cyber terrorism, and they play offense all the time.
Crowd Strikes an expensive stock though, and it and its price journeys multiple, got compressed when Anthropic, the very aggressive businessto business AI platform last week invaded its turf with something that can help make AI agents safer. Look, in reality, CrowdStrike doesn't actually compete with Anthropica like partners for heaven's sake.
So, it shouldn't have been crushed like that, but the stock hasn't stabed back either because these days investors simply don't want to pay up for quality merchandise. I stand by Crowd Strike, which is why we own it for the Travel Trust. One day soon, expertise will matter again and the stock will go higher, but maybe not in time for Crowd Strike's quarter.
Wednesday morning, we're going to hear from a real tricky one, too. A lot of tricky ones actually. Brown Foreman. This is the maker of Jack Daniels. I know the liquor market's gotten tough because of pesky young people who don't like to drink much and instead like to work out and plus there's this GOP-1 issue, but why is the stock up more than 10% year to date?
Could there be something going on here? Something good? Something that's not good to its competitor DAI which is doing really badly after closed Broadcom reports. 1.5 trillion company makes semis and software really doesn't get enough attention given its size. Now, some of the chips are sold to a to Alphabet, which is a big buyer.
That said, Broadcom needs to get new clients. Right now, it's caught in the software decline stemming from AI fears. I think the client's wrong. Uh, you don't get the $1.5 trillion for doing nothing, right? But you know what? This is one of those that's just too hard to own right now. And I know that and I sense that today when we had our monthly meeting.
Now, we're going to listen to Oct 2, the company that protects identities. I'm sure that CEO Todd McKinnon will do a good job. I just don't know once again if it matters because this market seems to have decided that anything octa can do a chatbot can do better. Next, I have a special place in my heart for Costco.
I stop every time I see one. When I'm on the road, they're almost always exa exciting and different. You need to go aisle by aisle to get the goods. I grab my own cart. My wife gets a different cart because we don't like the same stuff. We do end up at the register and try to merge even though others don't like that because we get in front of them.
I don't mean to really cut like that. She has the credit card, not me. I try to go on an empty stomach so I can eat the samples. Never go to Costco on a full stomach there. If you only take one thing away from the show, it's that. All that said, we want to see how many people reup when their Costco cards expire.
That's the key number now. The key metric. Lately, the number hasn't progressed. In fact, it's gone downhill. What is that about? I think it's largely younger people who fall out of love with Costco and they they do they do e-commerce. They don't know what a bargain looks like if they hit them over the head anyway.
Uh they're silly. Marvel Tech reports on Thursday and people are expecting big things because of its partnerships with several hyperscalers most notably Amazon Web Services which is selling out of its chips. The demand is so big here that it was mentioned by name uh in today's when when we when everyone was talking about it.
Marll CEO Matt Murphy does a remarkable job. I think the stocks a buy going into the quarter. That's right. I'm actually recommending buying Marll ahead of the of the uh earnings. Now, also on Thursday, very exciting. Caterpillars part of a fireside chat at Khan Expo. That's that annual construction trade show that you and I probably don't go to, but sounds like a real hoot.
There's CEO Joe Creed, a total straight shooter. Might talk about how people are using Caterpillar generators to power data centers. All very exciting. I kick myself daily for not getting to that one. And I don't know if they'll let me out for my job here to go attend Khan Expo. Maybe next year. Finally, on Friday, we get the labor department's non-farm payroll figures.
We all keep waiting to see the impact of AI on employment. We haven't seen it yet. But you know why? I think it's because the expected firms aren't really laying off anyone. They're just hiring fewer people or none at all. Bottom line, this was a bruising week capping off a bitter month. Let's hope March doesn't come in like a lion or a bear.
But I can't imagine how we're going to see a steer and how they'll ever find this miserable place after this week. Hey, how about we go to Cordell? Cordell in Ohio. Pull card now.
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