저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 '골디락스'에 근접해 있고, 최근 조정은 강세장 속 일시적 조정일 뿐이며 향후 상승이 기대된다. 경제 지표: 2분기 GDP 성장률 2.1%로 예상보다 양호했고, 인플레이션은 하락 추세(근원 물가 및 투입 원가 하락), 실업률은 3.5% 수준으로 낮게 유지되고 있다. 골디락스 개념: 1982년 애널리스트 솔로몬 데이비드 슐만이 만든 표현으로, 당시 기준은 GDP 4%, 인플레이션 3%, 실업률 3.5%였다. 현재는 완전한 골디락스는 아니지만 근접한 상태라고 평가. 시장 심리: 2022년 10월 저점 이후 약 1년간 고품질 성장주 중심의 상승이 이어졌으며, 시장 심리는 낮은 상태다. 사람들이 연준 정책, 중국 경기, 정치 이슈 등을 걱정하지만 실물 경제 지표는 예상보다 나은 흐름이다. 조정 구간: 2022년 12월, 2023년 2~3월, 8~9월 등 강세장 내 조정이 반복됐으며, 현재 조정은 과거 패턴과 매우 유사하다고 설명. 차트 비교를 권유. 전망: 현재는 강세장 상승 전 쉬어가는 조정 구간이며, 3~4개월 후에는 골디락스 경제에 대한 언급이 다시 늘어날 것으로 예상. 투자 조언: 명시적 종목 추천은 없음. 시장 전반에 대한 낙관적 전망만 제시.
다듬은 글
a few weeks ago for the very first time people started to say the words but only very briefly that we're in a Goldilocks economy when the second quarter GDP print was released at 2.1% uh people said boy this is better than we thought and then inflation's better than we feared at the beginning of the year and unemployment's uh down and I mean this is just this is we're getting close to a gold elocks economy what is a gold elocks economy first and foremost this phrase was created by uh analyst Solomon David Schulman in 1982 and the articulation at the time was that 4% GDP growth and 3% inflation with maybe 3 and a half% unemployment wasn't too hot it wasn't too cold just like Goldilocks it was just perfect to keep the Bears at Bay and that was what was deemed Goldilocks economy and that coin that phrase was coined as that kind of set of numbers now we're not there right now but the US economy is growing it's growing at a 2 plus perc number uh inflation is that 3% number and on the way down and we could debate that that's a whole different topic but the underlying leading indicators of inflation are showing that economy the inflation continues to go down the core parts of inflation are continuing to fall the input costs are continuing to fall we're not going to reverse the inflation of 20202 but we're not adding inflation at the rates we were we're adding inflation at 3 % kind of number in Falling unemployment remains low in the 3 and a half% range and this gets pretty close to that goldilock world the interesting part to me is that articulation of Goldilocks lasted about 3 days and then people started reverting to all of the wall of worry that they've been reverting to every few months since the market bottomed domestically and globally at the beginning of October 2022 and the nearly a year positive run since then led by highquality growth stocks the feature of that low sentiment coupled with a near Goldilocks economy not a Goldilocks economy but a near Goldilocks economy is one that should lead to positive surprise ahead as people continue in the month of September to look for how Central Bank policy will be terrible how things aren't working well in China how uh everything about politics is bad how inflation ticked up just a little bit uh at the headline level and doesn't that portend terrible things and worst Federal Reserve activity ahead and and and and and and the fact that we're near Goldilocks world and surprises in the real economy keep trending on average not perfectly so not 100% so Better Than People expected that we should hit that Goldilocks World in a world that doesn't expect that and recognized its potential as a Goldilocks for only about 3 days yes I think that should warm your heart I think this speaks further to this reality in December of last year we had a corrective downturn inside this bull market that lasted a little over a month in February March of this year we had another one recently we've had another one in the period of August September and it would appear this one to look almost identical to those prior to and I encourage you just to go back and look at a chart over the last year at some online website that allows you to do that for let's say the S&P 500 and see how similar this period looks to those periods before the bull market ramp back up I think this is the corrective phase as the wall of worry that bull markets legendarily climb reasserts itself to lower expectations it's the corrective phase the pause that that refreshes if you will before the launch of the next phase upward in this bull market and in that next phase upward I would expect us to hear more 3 four months from now about the Goldilocks economy as things are getting better irregularly when people don't expect them to ] is
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