저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시는 전쟁·관세 불확실성 속에 연초 대비 부진하나 타 국가보다 덜 하락. 2025년 해외 비중확대 전략이 유효했으나 전쟁 발발 후 미국 중심 전략이 유리해짐. 유가 100달러대는 글로벌 경제 킬러가 아니며 단기 급등 후 하락 가능성 언급. 중국은 부동산 버블·고령화·정부 개입 확대로 투자 비선호, 신흥국은 중국 제외 펀드 선호. 향후에도 유럽·일본·한국·신흥국 등 해외 주식 비중 확대(글로벌 분산) 유지 권고.
다듬은 글
So, if we're looking at the US economy and the resilience it shows in the face of this commodity spike, um, does it look more attractive than elsewhere? Because the theme coming in had been valuations are high here. It's time for the rest of the world to rally. Maggie, I I have uh kind of simplified the this concept of do you want to stay home, overweight the United States, or do you want to go global and find more opportunities overseas?
And since 2010 through the almost the end of last year, I was in the stay-home camp and it worked out really well. The US got to be 65% of the market cap of the MSCI all country all country world index. And I overstated my welcome, I thought, cuz last year was actually the right year to uh downgrade the US and overweight the rest of the world.
By December 7th, I kind of belatedly said, "Okay, let's let's go global." And continued to work pretty well until the the war started. And up you know, last It's funny in 2024, I remember a lot of people talking about American exceptionalism. And then Trump starts with his tariffs in 2025 creating all sort of uncertainties.
And you're right, suddenly people were saying, "You know what? The United States is kind of overvalued. There's cheaper stocks overseas." And so they outperformed. The go global really worked until the war started. And now all of a sudden ironically, well, maybe we do want to be in the United States after all.
The dollar suddenly has has firmed up and the US stock market uh is down for the year, but it's not down as much as other countries. I mean, you know, a lot of the emerging market indexes went straight up. They were led by Korea and Taiwan cuz they're kind of AI plays. But at other other countries did well.
South Africa did well partly because because of gold. But since the war started, stay stay home has made more sense. But I'm starting to see that people are you know, kind of acclimating themselves to geopolitical tensions and trying to put that in the background. Look, I mean, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
We had a big oil spike back then. Commodity prices soared. The US economy did not go into recession. The world didn't go into recession. And the war is still going on and uh in most countries life life goes on. Now we've got this situation in the Middle East and I think the perception is it's not going to be like Russia and Ukraine.
It's not going to be a four-year war. It's going to be something in a matter of weeks. I I think that's what the hope is. How does China I mean, Asia a lot of Asian countries are oil importers. How does China manage with the higher energy prices? Is that an Is that an issue or do we see a lift from AI and technology?
They're on the move again. You know, there's a lot of focus on what they're able to do with Yeah. you know, lower cost AI models. Is that Is that the offset? Well, I think you know, China as we have as prepared for this kind of situation. They've been uh adding to a strategic petroleum reserve. We took down our strategic petroleum reserve quite a bit during the 2022 oil oil spike, but there's still enough globally so that a lot of countries have collectively agreed on providing oil into the marketplace.
That's I think why the I mean, I I don't consider the price of oil at $100 to you know, be a killer for the global economy. And by the way, in the past oil spikes, when we did get up to 120 or more, it was a spike. It went up and then it came right right back down. And I think we may have actually made a a top a couple weeks ago when the oil spiked uh on Sunday night cuz it's obviously traded in in Europe.
It got up to 120. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if we kind of hang around 100 for a while. Then things calm down in the Middle East and we'll see the price of oil going right straight back down. But in regards to China, China's got a still a huge problem with this property bubble that's burst. They've got a huge problem with aging demography.
Demography. But they've done an amazing job in increasing the standard of living for for people there. I think I don't think it was because of communism. I think it's because the Communist Party for a while let capitalism work. And in recent years they've decided they've kind of changed that policy to now the government wants to oversee more of the economy.
So I'm not a big fan of investing in China. I mean, China for many years now has just been for traders. Make a lot of money for a little while and give fair amount of it right back. It has not been a market with an upward trend. It's been a market with a sideways trend for a couple of decades now. So in emerging markets I'd rather do an emerging emerging market fund without China than than with China.
China We talked about inflation before. China's a major source of global deflation because they produce too much. I mean, they're they're they're killing the the auto industry around the world with their cheap electric vehicles. Not not cheap badly made, but you know, very well-made cars that are affordable.
And they're you know, the only reason they haven't come for us cuz they basically don't sell Chinese cars here, but they do in Europe. They do in emerging markets. Country like Brazil produces cars, but they're getting competition from Chinese imports. So that's been actually very deflationary. You know, China's problem is has a problem for all of us and that is their consumers are they got a geriatric profile on the demography.
China I often say is the world's largest nursing home operated by Maoists. It's uh The government has badly managed things over the years. The Communist Party has. So I'm not a big fan of investing in China. I think the other emerging markets You put them all together, you've got growing you've got big middle class um middle classes in these countries that want to be even more prosperous.
They want to live well. And that's a good reason to invest in emerging markets. Well, so right now because of the sort of uncertainties around war, the US looks favorable again. But are you thinking about pivoting once we get some clarity? I I mean, I I mean, you know, I recommended going global back in December.
I don't usually change change my views uh too often, but uh I I did concede that with the war, you know, my my forecast has been upended, but I I think this I think the markets are already looking past the war. And I yeah, I would think that the emerging markets uh Europe, Japan, Korea, you know, there's there's still lots of opportunities there with lower valuation multiples.
So I would stick stick with a go global. Look, I mean, 65% When I say you don't want to overweight the the US in a global portfolio, it's it's 65% right now of a global It's already overweight relative to its importance in the global economy. So I have no problems with underweighting the US. Emerging markets are like somewhere between around maybe 12 13% of global stock markets.
So they have a lot of upside. Europe, Japan, they're also kind of in the 10 to 15% range. So there there definitely opportunities with lower valuations overseas than there are in the in the US. But all in all, I mean, I think you stick with stocks. We we've seen that it's not just been the US economy that's been resilient.
The global economy has actually been quite quite resilient. And of course global stock markets were not the only one that has been going into into record highs. Yeah, fair point. And it's always great to catch up with you and get a balanced look, not just a bearish look. It's important to consider both sides of the equation.
So it's been such a pleasure. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you. Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthy-on.com/free.
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