저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 증시가 역사상 가장 긴 상승장을 기록 중이며 이는 불안 요인이다. 과거 호황은 항상 끝났고 현재도 끝날 가능성이 크다. 미국 부채는 역사상 최대이며 인플레이션이 재상승 중이고 통화 팽창이 진행 중이라 워시 연준 의장은 사임해야 한다고 평가. 개인은 아는 것을 고수하고, 본인은 달러를 많이 보유하며 금·은도 보유한다고 말함.
다듬은 글
We've got a new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh. What would your advice be? Resign. My advice to him would be to resign. Inflation is rising again. There's been money printing around the world. And it's coming back. America still has largest debtor nation in the history of the world. No country ever in history has had so much debt.
Just read some history. And you know it ends badly. It always has ended badly. Hi, it's Maggie Lake from Wealthion. Many of our guests say the key to a resilient portfolio is owning physical gold and or silver. And many of you have told us you'd like to, but your IRAs don't offer it. Well, there's a solution for that.
Go to wealthion.com/goldira and sign up to talk to an IRA specialist about how you can add physical precious metals to your existing IRA. No obligations, just answers. Hello and welcome to Wealthion. I'm Maggie Lake. Joining me today to discuss the outlook for global markets is Jim Rogers, who needs no introduction.
Hi Jim, thanks so much for being with us. I'm delighted to be here, Maggie. Nice to see you. Nice to see you, too. And um it's it's a wonderful time to catch up with you because I think we need uh some wisdom and we need to talk to somebody who's who's seen a thing or two in their time. And you've certainly traded and invested through all sorts of markets, bull markets, bear markets, crises.
When you look across the global landscape right now and and financial markets, what do you see? How do you feel about the action you see? Well, Maggie, I mean the you were since we're both US citizens, uh The US market has gone up the longest in American history. America's been around 2 or 300 years.
Never before in our history have we had such a long market without a problem. So, everybody's happy. But, that worries me. Because I know it has never lasted. And I presume this will come to an end, too. Probably soon. It always has, anyway. Yeah, I think that, you know, we're there's the temptation to always say this time's different, right?
And this this in this cycle, AI is leading so much of what we see. Uh does it feel How how do you think about this sort of development? Because there's a ton of innovation, but does it feel like the it's it's the air starting to come out of this bubble? Or do we feel like we're in this kind of huge transition to another um type of economy, and maybe this can last longer than people think.
How how do How are you kind of plugging in AI into the equation? Magic Very dangerous words in life, especially in markets, are this time it's different. So, be very careful when somebody says to you, "Oh, you don't understand. It's different this time." Mhm. It's been different many, many times in history.
Electricity was different. Everything was different. But, whenever it's different, it's wonderful. It's fun. It's exciting. It's great. But, it always comes to an end. And this has been the longest in American history without a problem. So, maybe it's going to last forever. Maybe it's different now.
I doubt it. Mhm. [snorts] Yeah, I think a lot of people share that skepticism. But, uh you know, even even as we sit here every time we think we're seeing maybe a correction and and maybe things come back down to earth. You know, markets take off again and so I think it you know, it it it continues and I think it's making people nervous.
Where if if you if you suspect this will end, where would you be looking for signs of trouble? Where where where do the strains look like look most likely to show up? Well, my view of the way it has always usually works in other markets, you got to start with whatever's been the biggest winners. Whatever's been going up the most.
That's where the problems usually start first. Now, who knows? It's different now. Remember, this time it's different. Uh but historically, problems start with the hot shots, the market leaders, and then they work their way through the market. Mhm. From your perch there, what do you see? I I just heard someone say that Japan and South Korea are acting like emerging markets, and the US is acting like an emerging market compared to China.
Bond yields are moving higher, but the currencies are weakening. Dollar strong against other currencies, but but weak it looks weak against the yuan. Um are are we are we in a situation in the global economy where we are starting to see the these issues of debt uh unsustainable debt really take root?
Do you worry about economies like Japan and South Korea? Well, Maggie, you the the US debt No the US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Nobody has ever had so much debt, and it's getting worse every day. Now, Washington says, "Don't worry." That's cuz they can't add. They cannot add and they cannot subtract.
Uh but it makes me worry because I know that throughout history when this sort of thing has happened to any nation, it has led to problems. So, I assume we're going to have problems sooner or later, probably sooner, because it's been the longest period in American history without a big problem. Mhm.
So, history would say problems are getting closer. Yeah, how do you protect when you when you have a sense that you're going to see a turn, but you know, obviously we know these things are really hard to time. How do you protect against that? How do you you know, there I'm sure there are folks listening who are kind of worried about their their investments, their nest egg, their retirement, you know, that the wealth they've worked so hard to to build up.
How are you protecting against this you know, downturn that may be coming? The most important thing for everybody is to do stay with what you know. Do what you know. Don't listen to the television. Don't listen to the newspaper. Stay with what you know. And you will survive. Mhm. What are you sticking with?
What's your Yeah, I just stay with what you know. Yeah. What are you most comfortable with in this environment? Well, at the moment I happen to partly cuz I'm lazy, but I own a lot of US dollars. A whole lot of US dollars. Now, the US is the largest debtor nation in history, so you will probably say "Why US dollars?" And the reason is because when there are problems, everybody goes to a safe haven.
And people think the US dollar is a safe haven. Mhm. Now, it's not in the end, but at the moment everybody thinks it is. So, I'm not very smart. I just do what everybody thinks. I own a lot of US dollars. What about you've always been very knowledgeable about commodities. How are you feeling about metals here because we've you know, the other safe haven that people tend to turn to is gold or gold and silver, but that's been a little bit that's been trading a little bit more in line with stocks.
So, it's sort of been a little bit of a head scratcher. How are you thinking about precious metals? I own gold. I own silver. If they go down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. Everybody should have some gold and silver in the closet or under the bed or somewhere. Everybody should have some gold and silver.
If you know what you're doing, you can trade it. I don't trade it. I just own gold and silver. I hope that my children someday have my gold and silver. Everybody should have some gold and silver in the closet. If there's war, I assure you commodity prices for everything, oil, gold, silver, wheat, everything is going to go higher.
Is that good? No, but that's what always it's always happened. And it always will. So, if you don't own some gold and silver, go go hang up the phone and go get some as soon as you can. We've got a new leader coming into the Federal Reserve, a new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh. We've got a Fed meeting coming up.
What any what what would you Do you have any view on him and and what would your advice be if if someone taking that job right now? Seems like he's got a pretty tough tough balance that he's got to uh pursue. Resign. My advice to him would be to resign. It's not going to be a good time. No, I mean inflation is rising again.
There's been money printing around the world. And it's coming back. If he's not aware of it, oh, he definitely should resign. But if he's aware of it, he should start trying to do something now to control it if he can because I mean, history's pretty clear. Inflation is not good for the world. It's good for a few people, but most people do not like it.
Mhm. And inflation is not good for most of us. And I hope he's smart enough to do something. I doubt if he is. None of them have ever Few of them have ever been smart enough. But that's how Could we Could we see a a sort of, you know, a a policy move like Volcker did when he got inflation under control?
Can they do that in the in the environment we're in now with such high debt levels? Would Would anything like that just kill the kill the economy? I mean, it sounds like they they have no good options. Do they have a policy option? Well, Maggie, you would hit the nail on the head. I mean that America is the world's largest debtor nation in the history of the world.
No country ever in history's had so much debt. And the debt gets higher every day. I mean, if you just I'm like giving you I'm I'm just read some history. Mhm. And you'll know it ends badly. It always has ended badly. A hundred years ago, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. And the debt went higher and higher, and they went bankrupt.
Mhm. went bankrupt. That has happened many times in history. Maybe this time it's different, Maggie. Maybe don't we don't have to worry. Now everything is different. Jim, it was such a pleasure to catch up with you. Thank you so much. Well, I'm delighted. I hope we can do it again sometime. Be Be worried and be careful.
Well, that those are good words to to live by. Good words to end this with. We will certainly do that. Thank you so much.
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