Investors' recency bias means they can't see how things could inflect, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

톰 리는 연말 반등을 고수하며 시장이 인플레이션 피크를 과소평가하는 리케시 편향(recency bias)에 빠져 있다고 주장한다. 핵심 논리: 채권시장 스왑 금리 기준 내년 중반 인플레이션은 약 2.5%까지 하락, 현재 8%에서 4%(내년 초)를 거쳐 낮아진다는 전망. 연준 금리 인상 종료 시점은 내년 초로 예상, 이는 9월 CPI 발표로도 바뀌지 않는다고 봄. 주식 밸류에이션: 인플레이션 리스크가 주식 위험 프리미엄에서 제거되면 PER이 급격히 상승할 것이며, 시장이 인플레이션이 꺾였다고 확신하는 순간이 올 것이라고 봄. 10월 CPI 발표(수주 내) 무렵 이런 전환이 일어날 수 있다고 봄. 기업 측면: 미국 기업들은 코로나 기간 이익률 붕괴를 피했고 40년 만의 고인플레이션도 버텨냈다고 평가. 페덱스 실적 경고: 페덱스가 실적을 20% 하향 사전 발표하며 주가가 크게 하락했으나, 톰 리는 운송업은 실시간 경기 바로미터이지만 이번 하락은 시장 전체 약세 흐름 내에 있고 매도세가 가속되지는 않았다고 해석. 페덱스가 상향 실적을 내면 오히려 연준 기대를 자극했을 것이라며 내년 타이밍에는 오히려 긍정적이라고 주장. 다만 페덱스가 과잉 설비투자를 했고 세계 경기 둔화가 진행 중이라는 리스크는 인정. 시장 전반: 투자자들은 나쁜 인플레이션 데이터와 음의 가격 모멘텀 결합으로 비관적이지만 변곡점을 보지 못하고 있다고 진단. 따라서 건설적 관점을 유지한다고 밝힘. 리스크: 페덱스 사례처럼 경기 둔화 조기 신호 확산, 세계 성장 둔화, 연준의 추가 긴축 가능성.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. one steadfast bull though sticking to his case for a year-end comeback cnbc contributor tom lee he's the head of research at fund strat global advisors he joins me now you know tom i have to admit when i have you on people say why you keep having him on he's too bullish he says the same thing about being bullish every time and i say i gotta have you on because everybody else is negative so we gotta press the case and find out how you can remain so bullish for the remainder of the year in the face of what is overwhelming negativity from most um how do you how do you stay positive thinking that stocks can still do well when most others think they cannot scott i think that a lot of this has to do with uh i mean i don't think the right word is myopia but i think investors have what i call recency bias you know that we've got really bad inflationary data now and we've got negative price momentum and uh in that combination investors basically are negative but they can't necessarily see how things can inflect and i think one of the most important inflections that has already taken place but the second leg comes early next year is that inflation has peaked i don't think the august cpi report has changed that and if you look at what the bond market's saying it's saying that by the middle of next year inflation using swaps is going to be around two and a half percent so you're we're talking about inflation dropping from eight percent today to four percent early next year to two and a half percent and that means the feds in terms of hiking is going to be done sometime early next year that didn't change with the cpi though maybe the level of hikes that we're getting into but the date of those peaks isn't changing and what i think is the most important is is when the fed is sort of vanquished inflation and you know that i don't you know even alan blander said you know this is kind of a young inflation's not going to take decades to fix then corporate america is emerging from a time where they survived cobit and didn't see profit margins collapse and then they went through a two generation level of inflation ever seen and then they survived to me that's going to be taking out a huge tail risk out of equity risk premium when we see markets convinced inflation's broken pe is going to go up dramatically and i think that that's the mood change that's going to take place we actually think it could happen as early as the october cpi uh you know which is in a few weeks so yes we are sticking to our constructive view but again it's i think we're trying to look past this recency bias yeah um speaking of recency uh fedex that doesn't give you any sort of pause that it's a canary in a coal mine that it's the first of many to come out and warn and therein lies the biggest problem uh scott uh you know you always have to pay attention to transports because they're a pretty good real time early sort of barometer of economic activity but uh i i just think we've got to mitigate that in three ways number one fedex pre-announced it's down 20 percent and on the day that it pre-announced it's down huge the market's down kind of in line with some of the weakness all week it hasn't accelerated the sell off secondly we don't really want fedex to announce upsides of price to earnings because i think then you'd see markets raise up their hands again and actually raise fed expectations in fact you know we saw the 10-year kind of pool today so from uh timing of what happens next year it's actually a good thing and i think the third thing just to keep in mind is you know fedex uh and there's a lot of commentary about it today it shouldn't be a surprise to this to the extent that they did build up a lot of capacity into this year and we've got to slow down in rest of the world and you know i mean if investors think that you got to take down earnings for the market because of fedex that might be true you know to some smaller beta but they're forgetting that the pe is going to change dramatically when inflation risk is taken out of equity we're screening