The U.S. will experience a 'rolling recession,' says Ed Yardeni

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결론: 미국은 전면 침체가 아니라 섹터별로 순차 타격되는 '롤링 리세션'을 겪을 가능성이 크며, 연준의 금리 인상은 계속될 것이다. 연준 금리 전망: 다음 주 FOMC에서 연준이 금리를 강하게 올릴 것으로 보며, 75bp 대신 100bp 인상 후 한 번 더 인상할 수 있다고 봄. 연준이 정책 시차를 알면서도 신뢰도 문제로 선제 대응하려 한다는 분석. 시장 비교: 2년물 국채금리는 향후 12개월 내 약 3.8% 수준까지 오를 것으로 반영되어 있어, 연준이 이를 따라잡으려 하고 있다는 해석. 연준 펀드선물 11월~2024년 2월 계약은 신저가 경신 중이며, 시장이 연준 메시지를 강하게 반영하고 있다고 봄. 글로벌 경기: 유로존 9월 CPI는 전년비 9.1%로 상승, 파운드는 1985년 이후 최저, 달러는 20년래 고점 근처. 미국이 크기 때문에 세계 경기 둔화를 끌어내리는 쪽으로 작용하며 글로벌 경기침체에 주목해야 한다고 강조. 미국 경기 판단: 미국은 급격한 나쁜 결과보다는 롤링 리세션 가능성. 주택시장 등 금리 민감 섹터가 먼저 타격받을 것으로 봄. 출연자 견해: 패널 Steve(추정 진행/참여자)는 현재 경기가 나쁘지만 절벽 수준은 아니라고 보며, 75bp 인상은 적절하고 3.75~4% 도달이 필요하다고 봄. 시장이 4.5% 금리에 대해 다소 과잉 반영했다고 언급. 연준 반대 의견은 인플레이션에 대한 다른 이론을 제시해야 설득력이 있다는 입장. 반대 논리 점검: 바리(Barry)는 연준이 3~4%에서 멈춰도 된다고 주장했으나 아직 그 논의는 이르다는 평가. 향후 인플레이션 하락 데이터와 추가 인상 효과 미반영 요인을 함께 고려해야 한다고 정리.

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01. I think what we have to do is focus on the reality, what they are actually saying and what they are actually doing, and then make our investment conclusions based on that analysis. It seems to me that they are committed to raising interest rates significantly at this meeting next week. I do think they're going to come around and conclude that maybe they should just get it over with: maybe 100 basis points instead of 75, and then maybe one more hike after that. They know monetary policy operates with a long lag on the economy, but they've got a credibility problem and they're trying to get ahead of it. Actually, they're trying to catch up with the two-year Treasury note, which is saying that within the next 12 months, or a lot less, rates will be at something like 3.8 percent.

02. Steve, I've got a couple of my colleagues here. Santelli is a little older than Eliot, man, but Rick, can you remember where both sides were so certain, and neither one is a good outcome? An economy on the precipice of a recession, and a Fed that needs to go one to two points at a time. Both of those... they're polar opposites. I don't know if I need to say "polar," they're opposites. If you remember the last time we had this situation? It is a rather unique situation, and what makes it even more unique is, I like what Ed said, and he probably doesn't remember, but in the '80s we saw a lot of this. He was at Drexel, I was at Drexel. Things have definitely come full circle.

03. If you look at fed funds futures right now, the November '22 contract all the way to February '24, all of those are making new contract low prices as we speak, 16 contracts. So they're getting Powell's message loud and clear, and his message is hard to argue with. I can't imagine he's going to go less than three-quarters of a point. But the problem is, if Mr. Sterling had it to some extent... it's not housing. The Fed certainly knows they were going to definitely throw grenades into the housing market. I think about Eurozone inflation, just released: year-over-year CPI up 9.1 percent, the pound at the lowest level since '85, the dollar very close to fresh 20-year highs. It's the global recession that somebody needs to pay attention to, Joe, because the United States is big enough that we're going to leverage the rest of the world down. That used to be... that's absolutely right. I agree, we've got to look at the global situation, and we have a developing global recession. I think the United States is not going to experience a bad result... should I call it a "rolling recession"? Which means different sectors get hit at different times.

04. Steve, you're still in... I think, at least recently, you think the economy is, yeah, not great, but not ready to fall off a cliff. So you're behind Jay Powell, and a couple more, at least a couple more, 75-basis-point hikes. Could you change your mind in a data-dependent way? Oh yeah, totally. I think 75 is okay here. I followed the Fed and tried to communicate what I think they're thinking and what I think they're saying, and I think they're saying they need to get to three-and-three-quarters to four percent. The market may be overdoing it just a touch here with the four-and-a-half percent. But look, Joe, this opposition to the Fed is perfectly fine, as long as you come to the table with a different theory of inflation. Barry yesterday talked about the idea that he thinks it's okay for the Fed to stop at three to four percent. Of course, it'd be great to have that conversation, but we're not having that conversation yet. We had core go up in the last one, and that different theory of inflation seems to take two parts. One is that there's a lot to come down the pike here that has not been priced into the economy. The other is that there's a lot of data out there already showing that inflation is coming down. I have some sympathy with that. I also have a lot of sympathy with the idea that the Fed may be the last to know what's going on in the economy, given their adherence to the "transitory" idea. They kind of missed the financial crisis while it was brewing, and had to turn around and do an about-face or a huge rate cut. So I think there's some sympathy with that idea, but you have to come to the table. If you think the Fed should not go up, you've got to come with a different theory of inflation of what's happening right now and what's going to happen. I don't necessarily hear that from those who are opposing the Fed.