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Back, joining me Phil Panarros is the founder and former CEO at Boston Consulting Group. Uh Phil, great to have you here. Thanks for joining Schwab Network. Thank you, Oliver. Uh let's talk here about the market which has been kind of going back and forth. Hopes that the economy is going to pick up and have a fresh leg versus all the tech stuff we've been relying on.
Which here is the major force for markets you think at this juncture? Well, from from a Nvidia standpoint, my belief is that they're waiting for the Blackwell to be released, which is the next generation chip. If you look at the history of when they released Hopper, which was in September 2022, the stock was either down or sideways for prior to that.
And then once they released it, the stock went up hundreds of percent. So I see the same thing happening with Blackwell. The market is waiting for the Blackwell chip to be released. Uh hopefully in the fourth quarter. If that happens, you're going to see a huge explosion of the stock in 2025. But my view, which is that that Nvidia will be 800 by 2030, has more to do than just one chip.
It has to do with the fact that there's the AI revolution and we're only in the first inning. And actually more important, we're migrating from web 2 to web 3, which Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citibank estimates it will be a $10 trillion transition in the market. So Nvidia powers all of the accelerated computing to make that happen.
So they're going to have a major share of that. When you look at where we are right now, uh we've seen all these hyperscalers spend billions upon billions. Microsoft's reserving 20 years of nuclear energy. Uh does any of this uh risk overspending in the short term? What kind of benchmarks will AI developments need to hit to uh sustain that trend to justify it?
I know everybody talks about that the revenue, 40% of it is with the four or five hyperscalers. Right. But that's actually the the best case for why it's actually going to go up. Because if you look at all the other customers they're not getting to, there's 490 other Fortune 500 firms that haven't really adopted AI to the fullest because they don't understand it.
You have all the cities and governments that are going to be redoing all of their infrastructure from Web 2 to Web 3. And then you have a AI arms race with countries and their militaries that hasn't Nvidia hasn't penetrated for the most part. You're going to end up seeing that piece end up being a bigger part in the future for Nvidia revenue.
So my point is you can see that this the the the stock can go to the moon essentially, provided they deliver. Okay. it's future chips. This uh I mean, you're not talking after any uh splits or anything, right? We're just saying a clean 800 bucks going to 6X basically. Yeah, well, just so you know, when I was on last, it was 800 and I had said it was going to go to 8,000.
It split, now it's down. You know, so I'm doing the math again, it's 800. So it's very simple. So I'm keeping the same multiples, but I'll actually take you through the math. When I was here at the last uh when I was here the last time, their revenues for the year was around 60 billion. We're basically saying they're going to go from 60 billion to 600 billion by 2030.
And if you look at the multiple on that, that will grow around 10 times. If you look at the e-commerce cycle to the the AI revolutionary cycle, it's about the same way. So if you look at Amazon, they were a $60 stock with 10 billion in revenue in 2005, and they grew to to 100 billion by 2015, and their stock went to 600.
So we're looking at about the same thing for Nvidia. We're saying the stock's at 80 and it will go to 800 and the and the revenue will go from 600 billion to six to six 60 billion to 600 billion. So, you can see there's a lot of thought gone through and with this with this prediction. But, just so you know, not to sound overconfident, it's actually inevitable provided they can continue to make these chips because the AI penetration in the economy right now is literally less than 1%.
So, you still have all the corporates, the cities, the municipalities, the governments, the military's that are going to be spending money to make sure that they leverage AI effectively. So, tons of money still to be spent. Uh government municipal involvement about integrating AI into everyday life, is that part of the process?
What inning is that? When will we see it expand out of the private sector? Does that I mean cuz I would assume that's a pretty big gravy train that hasn't left. Yes. So, right now I actually am talking to firms and it's better to give real examples. So, right now all of the city governments are looking about how they can automate their buildings to become autonomous buildings leveraging AI through digital twins.
What people don't understand about Nvidia is not only do they have the chips, but they also have Omniverse which is digital twins and they also have CUDA which actually provides the programming language. With that you can actually provide a digital twin of a physical building and you can run the entire building off your phone through the digital twin.
So, that will allow you to automate all of the asset infrastructure. Another conversation I had which we have to be confidential, but with the federal government they've appointed heads of AIs for each of the agencies. They want to digitize all their assets which means that if they digitize all their assets, they again will be using digital twins to run, monitor, track, and operate them.
So, the bottom line is Nvidia's present penetration is as I mentioned 40%, which people think is a negative with just the hyperscalers, but that's the actually the biggest positive. Those companies, those four hyperscalers, understand the benefits of AI, which is why they're actually leveraging it and spending more and more.
The other people, which is the corporates, haven't even begun to touch it. The municipalities, the federal government, and then essentially the military. There's going to be a AI arms race. Whoever will becomes the preeminent AI leader will be the preeminent country, the preeminent corporation, and the preeminent city.
All right. Fun stuff. Love the target. Love the updated fresh view. Keep talking it up. Maybe we can get that high soon. Thanks, Phil. Thank you very much. Have a great day. Appreciate it. Good take on a day where the market is looking for some AI strength. Phil Panaro, founder, former CEO at Boston Consulting Group. Latenean coming up.
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