Nvidia (NVDA) "Will be $800 by 2030"

요약 보기

엔비디아는 차세대 Blackwell 칩 출시(4분기 예상)를 계기로 2025년 큰 상승이 예상되며, 2030년 주가 800달러(분할 전 기준 현재가 800 → 8,000 주장이었으나 분할 후 기준 동일 배수 적용) 전망. 매출은 2024년 약 600억 달러에서 2030년 6,000억 달러로 성장할 것으로 봄. AI 침투율이 1% 미만이라 기업·도시·정부·군사 부문으로 수요가 확대될 것이며 웹2→웹3 전환은 10조 달러 시장이라고 주장. 아마존 사례(2005~2015 매출 10배, 주가 상승)를 근거로 제시.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. Back, joining me Phil Panarros is the founder and former CEO at Boston Consulting Group. Uh Phil, great to have you here. Thanks for joining Schwab Network. Thank you, Oliver.

02. Uh let's talk here about the market which has been kind of going back and forth. Hopes that the economy is going to pick up and have a fresh leg versus all the tech stuff we've been relying on. Which here is the major force for markets you think at this juncture?

03. Well, from a Nvidia standpoint, my belief is that they're waiting for the Blackwell to be released, which is the next generation chip. If you look at the history of when they released Hopper, which was in September 2022, the stock was either down or sideways prior to that. And then once they released it, the stock went up hundreds of percent. So I see the same thing happening with Blackwell. The market is waiting for the Blackwell chip to be released, hopefully in the fourth quarter. If that happens, you're going to see a huge explosion of the stock in 2025.

04. But my view, which is that Nvidia will be 800 by 2030, has more to do than just one chip. It has to do with the fact that there's the AI revolution and we're only in the first inning. And actually more important, we're migrating from web 2 to web 3, which Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citibank estimate will be a $10 trillion transition in the market. So Nvidia powers all of the accelerated computing to make that happen, so they're going to have a major share of that.

05. When you look at where we are right now, we've seen all these hyperscalers spend billions upon billions. Microsoft is reserving 20 years of nuclear energy. Does any of this risk overspending in the short term? What kind of benchmarks will AI developments need to hit to sustain that trend and justify it?

06. I know everybody talks about how the revenue, 40% of it, is with the four or five hyperscalers. But that's actually the best case for why it's going to go up. Because if you look at all the other customers they're not getting to, there are 490 other Fortune 500 firms that haven't really adopted AI to the fullest because they don't understand it. You have all the cities and governments that are going to be redoing all of their infrastructure from Web 2 to Web 3. And then you have an AI arms race with countries and their militaries, which Nvidia has not penetrated for the most part. You're going to end up seeing that piece become a bigger part of Nvidia's revenue in the future.

07. So my point is you can see the stock can go to the moon, essentially, provided they deliver future chips.

08. You're not talking after any splits or anything, right? We're just saying a clean 800 bucks, going to 6X basically?

09. Yeah, well, just so you know, when I was on last, it was 800 and I had said it was going to go to 8,000. It split, now it's down. So I'm doing the math again, it's 800. It's very simple. I'm keeping the same multiples, but I'll take you through the math. When I was here the last time, their revenue for the year was around 60 billion. We're basically saying they're going to go from 60 billion to 600 billion by 2030. If you look at the multiple on that, it will grow around 10 times. If you look at the e-commerce cycle versus the AI revolutionary cycle, it's about the same. If you look at Amazon, it was a $60 stock with 10 billion in revenue in 2005, and it grew to 100 billion by 2015, and its stock went to 600. So we're looking at about the same thing for Nvidia. The stock's at 80 and it will go to 800, and the revenue will go from 60 billion to 600 billion.

10. So you can see there's a lot of thought gone into this prediction. But, not to sound overconfident, it's actually inevitable provided they can continue to make these chips, because AI penetration in the economy right now is literally less than 1%. So you still have all the corporates, the cities, the municipalities, the governments, and the militaries that are going to be spending money to make sure they leverage AI effectively. Tons of money still to be spent.

11. Government and municipal involvement in integrating AI into everyday life, is that part of the process? What inning is that? When will we see it expand out of the private sector? I would assume that's a pretty big gravy train that hasn't left.

12. Yes. Right now I'm talking to firms, and it's better to give real examples. All of the city governments are looking at how they can automate their buildings to become autonomous buildings, leveraging AI through digital twins. What people don't understand about Nvidia is that they not only have the chips, but also Omniverse, which is digital twins, and CUDA, which provides the programming language. With that, you can provide a digital twin of a physical building and run the entire building off your phone. That will allow you to automate all of the asset infrastructure.

13. Another conversation I had, which has to be confidential, was with the federal government. They've appointed heads of AI for each of the agencies. They want to digitize all their assets, which means they'll be using digital twins to run, monitor, track, and operate them.

14. So the bottom line is Nvidia's present penetration is, as I mentioned, 40%, which people think is a negative with just the hyperscalers, but that's actually the biggest positive. Those four hyperscalers understand the benefits of AI, which is why they're leveraging it and spending more and more. The other people, the corporates, haven't even begun to touch it. The municipalities, the federal government, and essentially the military are next. There's going to be an AI arms race. Whoever becomes the preeminent AI leader will be the preeminent country, the preeminent corporation, and the preeminent city.

15. All right. Fun stuff. Love the target. Love the updated, fresh view. Keep talking it up. Maybe we can get that high soon. Thanks, Phil.

16. Thank you very much. Have a great day. Appreciate it.

17. Good take on a day where the market is looking for some AI strength. Phil Panarros, founder and former CEO at Boston Consulting Group. Later on, we'll be right back.