Warren Buffett: "BITCOIN WILL GO TO ZERO" 📉 Charlie Munger: "It's foolish and stupid" 👎

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결론: 버핏과 멍거 모두 비트코인에 강하게 부정적이며, 가치 창출이 없는 투기 자산으로 본다. 버핏은 비트코인이 생산적 자산(농지·아파트·기업)과 달리 아무것도 생산하지 않고 다음 사람이 더 비싸게 사주기를 기대하는 게임이라고 주장한다. 이를 근거로 25억 달러에 전 세계 비트코인을 준다 해도 받지 않겠다고 말한다. 버핏은 비트코인 가격이 올라가든 내려가든 1~10년 단위의 방향은 모르겠다고 밝히면서도, 가치를 생산하지 않는다는 점은 확신한다고 말한다. 또한 달러 같은 법정화폐가 유일한 화폐이며 정부가 이를 대체할 가능성은 없다고 본다. 멍거는 비트코인을 세 가지 이유로 비판한다. 첫째, 가격이 0으로 갈 가능성이 높아 어리석다. 둘째, 연준 체제와 국가 통화 시스템을 훼손하므로 악하다. 셋째, 중국 공산당이 비트코인을 금지한 것과 비교하면 미국이 더 어리석어 보인다. 출연자 전망: 버핏은 비트코인 가격의 단기·중기 방향은 모른다고 했고, 멍거는 0으로 갈 가능성이 높다고 본다. 두 사람 모두 장기적으로도 가치가 없다고 평가한다. 리스크 및 조건: 두 발언은 2023년 11월 기준이며, 수수료 등 마찰 비용과 사기 가능성도 언급되었다.

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01. have you changed your views on bitcoin Andor cryptocurrency in any respect I'm conflicted about this because his own views have slightly evolved during the past two years from Bitcoin as a fraud and waste to bitcoin is in a speculative bubble but might have some uses well I shouldn't answer any questions on the subject but I will uh you know there's there's all kinds of people watching this that are long Bitcoin and there's nobody that short and nobody nobody wants their windpipe stepped on I don't blame them I don't like people to step on my windpipe but I would say this that if all the people L if the people in this room uh owned all of the Farmland in the United States and you offered me a 1% interest in it and you said for a 1% interest in all the Farmland in the United States uh pay me U pay our group um now let's see 10 H he it say Bargain price $25 billion I'll write your check this afternoon 25 billion now I own 1% of the Farmland if you tell me you own 1% of the apartment houses in the United States uh and you offer me uh a 1% interest so I'll have a 1% interest all the apartment houses in the country and you want whatever it may be for it and another 25 billion or something I'll write your check you know it's very simple now if you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25 I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it um I have to sell it back to you one way or another I mean maybe have be the same people but it isn't going to do anything the apartments are going to produce rental and and the Farms are going to produce food and uh uh if I've got all the Bitcoin you know I'm back where whatever his name was who may or may not have existed was you know 15 years ago if I've got it all he could create a mystery about it but everybody knows what I'm like I mean so if I'm trying to get rid of it you know people will say well uh you know why should I buy some Bitcoin from you I mean why don't you call it Buffet coin you know make your own or something what do something but uh I'm not going to give you anything for it and you'd be right incidentally but that explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got now net if you look at it a lot of commissions have been paid and there I mean there's all kinds of frictional costs that are very real that somebody is paid to a bunch of people who facilitate this game but whatever one group of the public has taken out or one group of owners has come in from other people I mean it's other people have entered the room and they move money around but but no money has there's no more money in the room it just changed hands with a lot of maybe fraud and costs involved and you know a whole bunch of things you lose you know you forget the numbers or get the equation they uh um you can do that with a lot of things I mean it's been done throughout history uh certain things have value that don't produce something tangible I mean you can you can say a great painting you know probably will have some value 500 years from now may not but the odds are pretty good that if it was a big enough name at some point there be a few things I mean it you know you can uh you can find something if somebody wants to sell you a pyramid or something and you can charge the viewers or you know it'll be around a long time and and won't produce anything but but but uh people will find it interesting to go there because I read about the parids but basically uh assets to be to have value they have to deliver something to somebody and uh uh and there's only one currency this acceptable United States I mean you can you can come up with all kinds of things uh we can put out Burkshire coins or you know we can put up Berkshire money or anything like that but uh we get in trouble I guess if we call it money but uh in the end this is money and and there's no reason in the world why the United States government whose currency people prefer we literally there's 2.3 just under 2.3 trillion just of these little pieces of paper floating around some places 7,000 for every man woman and child in the United States and of course most of them probably aren in the United States who knows but this is the only thing that's money and anybody that thinks the United States is going to change to where they let burer money replace Place theirs you know it's out of their mind I mean uh so anyway uh with those few deficiencies uh you know you can whether it goes up or down the next year or five years 10 years I don't know but the one thing I'm pretty sure of is that it it doesn't it doesn't multiply it doesn't produce anything it's it's uh it's got a magic to it and people have attached Magics to lots of things I me the gold in Wall Street you know create Magic you know you know we are not an insurance company we're a tech company well they're an insurance company but a dozen people or so raised a lot of money they just said just don't pay any attention to the fact that we sell insurance we are a tech company well in the end they wrote insurance and overwhelmingly they've lost a lot of money since that it you can you can make up things that work well well and getting money from other people and that's why well I have a slightly different way of looking at it I'll sell you something well I the in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else and Bitcoin does all three and and in the first place it's stupid because it's very likely to go to zero second place it's evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System and the national currency system which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and so on and third it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China he was smart enough to ban Bitcoin in China with all of our presumed advantages of civilization we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China yeah and when 25% of the people of the country get mad because we've said what we've said today just remember Charlie spoke last and was the most