Warren Buffett on GOLD 💥 ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW 👍

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결론: 영상은 금 같은 비생산 자산에 대해 부정적이며, 생산성 있는 자산(기업·농지 등)이 장기적으로 우월하다고 주장한다. 자산 분류: 통화 기반 자산(예금·채권·현금), 비생산 자산(금 등), 생산 자산(농지·기업) 세 가지로 나눠 설명한다. 금 비판: 금은 아무것도 생산하지 않으며, 전 세계 금 전체가 약 8조 달러 수준이라는 예시를 든다. 금은 가치저장 수단으로서 역사적으로 성과가 좋지 않았다고 평가한다. 비교 근거: 미국 농지 약 1조 에이커 규모의 가치는 2조 달러 이상, 엑슨모빌 10개 기업 가치는 약 4조 달러로 제시한다. 금 전체 가치보다 큰 생산 자산이 많다는 취지다. 장기 전망: 50년 이상 기간을 두면 버크셔 해서웨이와 보통주 전체, 농지가 금보다 나을 것이라고 확신한다고 말한다. 예측 대상은 장기이며 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없다. 투자 철학: 가격 변동을 매주 확인하지 않고 기업의 현금창출력에 집중해야 하며, 비생산 자산을 사는 것은 다른 사람이 더 비싸게 살 것을 기대하는 투기라고 규정한다. 튤립 사례를 들어 비생산 자산은 결국 나쁘게 끝난다고 경고한다. 금 관련 언급: 금 가격이 오를 수 있다는 주장에 대해 부정적이며, 달러가 50% 하락해도 기업 가치는 유지된다고 말한다. 리스크 및 조건: 영상은 2023년 발언(버핏) 인용 형태이며 특정 시점 가격 예측은 포함하지 않는다.

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01. almost all currencies have declined in value over time the three major categories of investment the first category is anything denominated in a currency it can be bonds it can be deposits in a bank it can be a money market fund it can be cash in your pocket as a class currency related Investments we do not think make much sense the second category of Investments regard items that you buy that don't produce anything but that you hope someone will pay you more for later on the classic case of that is gold but it isn't going to do anything now it's all you are doing when you buy that is that you're hoping that somebody else a year from now or five years from now will pay you more to own something that again can't do anything if you take all of the gold in the world it will be a cube that's about 67 feet on a side the value of that Cube all the gold in the world is now about value that eight trillion dollars and there are a billion Acres roughly a Farmland in the United States and that's valued at something over 2 trillion and if you take 10 Exxon mobils you get up maybe another 4 trillion so you could own all of the Farmland in the United States and you could own 10x on mobiles and you get a sick of trillion or so in your pocket for walking around money and you could have your choice of that or this 67 foot piece of gold the third category of asset is something that you value based on it's on its what it will produce what it will deliver you buy a farm because you expect a certain amount of corn or soybeans or cotton or whatever it may be to be to come your way every year and you decide how much you pay based on how much you think the asset itself will deliver over time and those are the assets that appeal to me and Charlie now there's some logical follow-on to that if you buy that farm and you really think about how many bushels of corn how many bushels of soybeans will produce how much do I have to pay the tenant farmer how much do I have to pay in taxes and so on you can make a rational calculation logically you should not care whether you get a quote on that farm a day later or a week later a month later or a year later we feel the same way about businesses when we buy his car or we buy lubrizol or whatever we don't run around getting a quote on it every week and say you know is it up or down or anything like that we look to the business we feel the same way about Securities when we buy marketable security we don't care if the Stock Exchange closes for a few years so when we look at Berkshire we are looking at what we think can be delivered from the productive assets that we own and how we can utilize that capital in acquiring more productive assets I would bet on good producing businesses to outperform something that doesn't do anything over any period of time a business or any economic asset is going to be worth what it produces in the way of cash over its lifetime all even is is laying out some money now to get more money back in the future now there's two ways of looking at the getting the money back one is from what the asset itself will produce that's investment one is from what somebody else will pay you for it later on irrespective of what the asset produces and I call that speculation yeah we're not enthused about gold at um people historically have felt that was the first Refuge from a currency that was going to be decline in value but you know so is a barrel of oil so is an acre of land so is a piece of of uh of Coca-Cola if the dollar goes down 50 percent we will be selling See's candy for double at the present price we would not trade the ownership of those kind of assets for us for a hunk of the yellow metal gold would be way down on my list as a store of value it it it it really is not a it's not a store of value if you're worried about paper money and I think you know makes a lot of sense to worry about paper money over long periods of time but it's just it's just about you know it's just about the last thing uh I would want to own under those circumstances if you know I'd rather have the ability to sell people a pound of candy 20 years from now and if they're dealing in seashells I'll get an appropriate number of seashells instead of paper money for it I don't see uh gold is a store of value and it's the truth is it hasn't worked very well I see no reason you know why it would why it would work well in the future you know we take it out of the ground in South Africa and we put it in the ground at Fort Knox or someplace and you know in the New York fednet I mean and it doesn't do much along the way for anybody the one thing I would bet my life on essentially is over a a 50-year period not only will Berkshire do considerably better than gold but Common Stocks as a group will do better than gold and probably Farmland will do better than gold I mean if you own an ounce of gold now and you you know you caress it for the next hundred years you'll have a you'll have an ounce of gold 100 years from now if you don't if you're on 100 acres of Farmland you'll also have 100 acres of Farmland 100 years from now and you'll have taken the crops for 100 years and sold them and presumably bought more Farmland with the process it is very hard for an unproductive investment to beat productive Investments over any long period of time if you bought gold at the time of Christ and you figure the compound rate on it you know it's maybe a couple tenths of one percent I I think that anytime you buy a non-productive asset uh you are counting on somebody else later on to buy a non-productive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money and it's been tried with tulips and it's been trying it's been tried with various things over time and it does come to a bad ending in the end you make your money on a productive asset