저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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버핏은 TSMC 매도 이유로 대만 입지 리스크를 재평가한 점을 들고, 미국·일본 투자에 더 만족한다고 밝힘. 일본 5대 상사 투자는 14% 수익률 기대, 배당, 환헤지 저비용 등을 근거로 제시하며 지분 7.4%까지 보유. 중국과의 무역 긴장은 양국의 어리석음이며 상호 호혜적 관계가 필요하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
this question comes from Rohit bellany Burkshire bought a substantial position in Taiwan semiconductor and contrary to its normal holding timeline sold almost the entire position within a few short months while you cited in a CNBC interview that geopolitical issues were the Catalyst these issues were seemingly no different when you acquired that stock so what else if anything changed in those few months impr prompted The Firm to offload close to5 billion worth of Taiwan semiconductor shares Taiwan semiconductor is one of the best managed companies uh and important companies in the world and uh uh there is not and I think you'll be able to say the same thing five or 10 or 20 years from now I don't like its location and and I've re-evaluated that I mean I don't think it should be any place but Taiwan although though they will be obviously opening up ship capacity in this country and actually one of our subsidiaries that we got in alagan is is U is participating in in in their Arizona uh construction activities but uh it's it it uh it's question of we would rather have the same kind of compy and there there's nobody in the chip company there's no in the chip industry that's in their league in our at least in my view uh and the man that was a 91 year old or so that connected with it that that uh I think I played Bridge with him and uh uh in Albuquerque and The Marvelous people marvelous company but I'd rather find a marvelous people people I won't find it in the chip industry marvelous people and marvelous uh competitive position and everything I'd rather find it in the United States I feel better about the capital that we've got deployed in Japan than in then Taiwan it it uh I wish it weren't so but I think that's a reality and I re-evaluated that uh in the light of certain things that were going on Charlie tell them the story of the Japanese investment that that should be told again that that that's that's a nice story yeah well it was pretty simple I mean I I you know other back when I started other people were going through Playboy and I was going through moodies you know basically and uh uh there's a movie out called Turn every page which which I saw again for the second time a couple of days ago Lizzie gly but I recommend everybody in this world watch that because I turned every page in the past and uh I did it for thousands and thousands of pages in moodies and I did it at the Department of Public Utilities in in Boston I did the insurance department that you just kept turning Pages well that that goes on for for a while but now we need big ideas in order to find things and uh and what was your question Char can tell them about the Japanese well the Japanese thing was was simple I mean it I know I like looking at companies every I mean I like looking at figures about companies and and here were five very very substantial companies understandable companies most of them uh maybe all of them we've done business with in a dozen different ways if you go a couple miles from where this places the our last coal generating plant was built by one of the companies and uh so here they were they were sitting as a group where they were earning we'll say 14% uh on what we were going to pay to buy them they were paying decent dividends they were going to repurchase shares in some cases they owned a whole bunch of businesses that we could understand as a group although we didn't mean we had deep understanding on any but we seen them operate and everything there there wasn't anything to it and at the same time we could take out the currency Risk by by financing in in y and that was going to cost us a half of 1% well if you get 14% on one side and half a perc on the other side and you've got money that you know forever and they're doing intelligent things and they're sizable so we just started buying them I didn't even probably tell Greg until maybe 6 months after after we' gotten going and and then we hit 5% uh in all of them we announced on my birthday and uh at 90th at that we owned over 5% and recently went over for the first time to visit with them and we're more than pleasantly surprised delighted with what we find there and now we own 7.4% of it we won't go over 9.9 without their agreeing and we sold another 164 whatever it is uh uh billion of would have done for us if we only had $5 billion or something and it made $ 10 billion simply in that way yeah we would look like Heroes now 10 billion just sort of disappears as a a little dot in B's reports but it's fun and uh is fun and it and it is 10 billion and Charlie says it keeps and Charlie says it keeps me out of bars when I talk to about and I probably talked to Charlie about this the year after I started I don't but who knows I mean but I knew he'd like it I mean obviously and uh we tried we tried to do every dollar we would do we could only do about 10 billion yeah yeah well not even that quite that much yeah uh but you know we are four or five billion ahead Plus divins and we got a carry that's terrific and and you know uh and they welcome us and they should welcome us and but we we love it the way they're operating we're not there to tell them what to do in the least uh uh so we did and but we did say we never go over 9.9 and we mean it and they they know that we'll be true to our word and I went over there partly to introduce Greg to those people because we're going to be with them 10 20 30 40 years from now and they may occasionally find something that we can do jointly and they look they look forward to doing that we look forward to it and uh in addition we have some other operating businesses in Japan so Greg do you have anything the only thing I would add is that um one as War you went over there it was to um build the build the trust with these Japanese companies because we do hope there's long-term opportunities but fundamentally as you highlighted uh they're an incredible uh they've been a very good investment I'd also highlight the five meetings we had were really quite remarkable I mean these companies the culture and the history around it how proud they are you know there's just moments of learning from them so it was it was just a great experience to to spend really two days with the five companies and an issue that we intended to be 56 billion of Yen that we were issuing and selling turned out to be 164.524 500 million dollar a year and uh uh you know just keep looking for more opportunities and and Japan we have berser is the largest borrower outside of corporate borrower outside of Japan that that exists and and yeah we didn't set out to be that but it's it's turned out that way and and we're not done I mean it uh you know in terms of what may come along there and uh and we have some direct operations there as I mentioned uh uh and we've got some really wonderful Partners working for us and I don't have to do anything well there's been some tension in the economic relationship of United States and China I think that that tension has been wrongly created on both sides I think we're equally guilty of being stupid there's one thing we should do it's get along with China and we should have a lot of free trade with China in our mutual interest and I just can't imagine it's so just so obvious there's so much safety and so much creativity that's possible think of what Apple has done by engaging in a partnership with China as a big supplier it's been good for apple and good for China that's the kind of business we ought to be doing with China and more of it and everything that increases the tension between the two companies is stupid stupid stupid and ought to be stopped on each side and each side ought to respond to the other side stupidity with reciprocal kindness that's my view and it creates one enormous problem of course which is that you have the two superpowers of the world and they know they have to get along with each other e either one can destroy the other and they're going to be competitive with each other uh but part of it is trying always in a game like that is trying to judge how far you can push the other guy without them reacting wrong and uh you know if either side is a bully and some ways they can get away with it to an extent because the alternative is would drive them both into destruction but if they push it too far they increase the probability that something really does go wrong so it's a you know it's one of those Game Theory dilemmas but you really need the leader of both countries uh and you need the populist to understand at least the general situation in which these countries are going to operate over the next century and know that that some leader that promises too much can get you in a hell of a lot of trouble and that like you know that you've got one kind of a system that gets its leader one way you got another system that gets his leader another way and keeping keeping either side from trying to play the game too hard uh and thinking the other side will will go along you know just like playing chicken you know and driving toward a cliff so it is if you got any diplomacy skills persuasive skills or anything like that you really want people that will convince the other country as well as his own or her own country that that this is what we're engaged in we've got to do it right we won't give away the store but we won't try and take the whole story either and and it it we we're just at the beginning of this uh unfortunately I mean we we' learned what the situation was it used to be the Soviet and and the mutually assured destruction was our policy then and that kept a lot of things from happening but it also came with a very very very close call uh with Cuba and these are not you know these are different games than existed hundreds of years ago you could you know Britain might rule the Seas or France or Spain but but now you're playing with a game that you can't really make a huge mistake in and I think that that that should be the better that's understood in both countries the more the leaders feel that their citizenry does understand that the better off will be and that a lot of democ uh uh demography or the a lot of a lot of inflammatory speaking but a lot of authoritarian action I mean it it all carries its dangers and the world was stumbled through the years post 1945 with a lot of close calls from the in the nuclear Arena and now we've got pandemics and we've got we've got cyber and a whole bunch of other things so we've got more tool rules of Destruction the world's ever had and it it's imperative that China and the United States both understand what the game is and understand that you can't push too hard but we're going but both places are going to be competitive and both can prosper that's that's what really is that's that's the vision that is out there that China will have a more wonderful country United States will have a more wonderful country and and and the two are not just combatible they're almost imperative uh in terms of uh what's going to happen in the next 100 years or so and uh uh I think that the leaders of both countries have got a important job in in having that stood and not to do inflammatory things and we'll see whether the luck that has taken us from 1945 to present holds out and and I think we can affect to some extent that luck
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