Tom Lee: I think there is genuine value in FAANG stocks

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Tom Lee는 FAANG(특히 메가캡 빅테크) 주식에 대해 현재 시장의 과도한 할인은 장기 투자자에게 좋은 진입 기회라고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 빅테크 주가는 최근 6개월간 S&P 대비 약 10%p 하회해 닷컴버블 이후 최악의 언더퍼폼을 기록했다. 그는 이를 과도한 디스카운트로 본다. 실적 및 펀더멘털: 플랫폼 기업들은 GDP보다 빠르게 성장하는 디지털 경제에 노출되어 있어 향후 10년간 이 구조가 유지될 것이라 본다. 이들 기업은 여전히 S&P보다 빠른 EPS 성장을 보이며, 경기 우려에도 두 자릿수 성장이 예상된다고 한다. 리스크: 최근 분기 실적 미스가 나온 기업들(Facebook/Meta, Amazon 등)은 다음 두 분기 동안 주가 반등이 어려운 '패널티 박스'에 있다고 인정한다. 메가캡 내 차별화: Netflix와 Meta의 약세는 다른 메가캡과 구분되는 흐름으로 언급되며, 그럼에도 FAANG 전반에 가치가 있다고 본다. 이들은 막대한 잉여현금흐름과 R&D 기반 해자를 보유하며 AI 등 차세대 성장 동력의 선두에 있다고 평가한다. 2선 기술주: 테크 섹터 전반이 디레이팅 중이며 벤처/사모 시장까지 영향을 받고 있다. 2선 기술주는 베타가 높아 변동성이 크다고 언급했다. 전망: 단기(1개월) 반등을 장담하지는 않으며 현재는 언더슈트 구간으로 본다. 그러나 12개월 시계에서는 이들 기업이 모두 좋은 매수 대상이 될 것이라고 전망한다. 투자의 핵심은 매달 수익이 아니라 큰 스윙을 포착하는 데 있다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 빅테크에 대해 장기 매수 관점을 유지하며, 단기적으로는 턴어라운드가 확실하지 않다는 신중한 입장이다.

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01. tom which has the bigger read through to you uh microsoft or alphabet and welcome by the way good morning thanks good morning uh i mean i think both are important read-throughs because you know they both companies represent so much of what fang represents you know like you guys said it's platform companies that really have a lot of exposure to a digital economy that's growing faster than the overall gdp and that should be the case for the next 10 years but you know investors are finding them less shiny and attractive that's one reason why we're seeing a sell-off in a name like google but as you guys mentioned i mean these have become so discounted that you they're some of them will actually be included we believe in in the value index and a rebalance but more importantly you know these are still going to be important eps growers faster than the s p and you know they've underperformed now in the last six months by almost 10 percentage points which is the worst since you know the dot-com bubble so i mean we talk about fang a lot uh remember the original thing was facebook amazon netflix google now alphabet three of the four so far have had some uh disappointing results right uh alphabet less disappointing relatively speaking but what does that say and what do you think amazon does uh in a season that so far you know um potentially one for four yeah it's well it it you know it highlights the risk reward it's tough because uh especially in tech investing you know there's that whole three-quarter rule you know when a company misses it's pretty hard to buy for the next two quarters so i think fang is in that penalty box but for long-term investors i mean these are you know in our view pretty great entry points especially because if you if on a macro basis people are worried about growth and these companies are still going to grow double digits maybe not as fast as people thought but right still grow double digits so tom when we when you say that fang is acting like death um you know it's a little dramatic right because they're not going to die anytime soon these are strong businesses but there is this divergence within the group we'll call them mega caps let's say um we've really seen you know netflix and meta fall behind the rest of the crowd so i wonder where do you think the opportunity is here are they in a different category now or do you think that there's actually value in these names i think there's genuine value uh because these companies generate so much free cash flow and they have uh pretty big moats as you guys would say um around their businesses r d is a huge component of their actual operating expense and and that's really what helps them extend their lead and as you guys talk about like some of the new leading edge things like ai yeah they're going to be at the front of this so i don't think there's a lack of future growth catalysts but because they're widely owned and and people are more interested in owning inflation plays like energy or even some defensives that's what's made them harder to sort of say they'll be great in the next month but as you know investing isn't really about trying to make money every month but it is about trying to find sort of the big swings and i think we're at a point where it's a big swing to own bang so if the if the mega caps are in the gutter what does that mean for some of those large but smaller tech names that are trying to make businesses and have made businesses and ai and automation where fang plays but they've obviously seen their stock sell off hugely is there any opportunity in those second tier names uh yeah those are going to be beta um i mean the tech complex is de-rating right now and i think it's also engulfing the venture in private world so i think that's what's hitting a lot of hedge funds so hard because there's a lot of marks coming but as you know ultimately uh we're probably in a period of undershoot where investors disappointment is now causing a d rating that is the opportunity but i i don't know if we're you know i don't know if this is going to turn here uh but more importantly it's you know in 12 months i just think these are all going to be great buys