저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 실적 발표 이후 시장은 과거처럼 무조건 용서하지 않는 '냉혹한 장세'이며, 종목을 느낌표(!)·물음표(?)·별표(*) 세 등급으로 나눠 별표 종목 중 일부를 매수 기회로 본다. 시장 상황: 시장이 계속 약세인 이유로 연준의 공격적 긴축, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁, 중국 봉쇄 등 불확실성을 꼽는다. 이번 실적 시즌에는 시장이 과거처럼 실적 미스를 용서하지 않는다고 진단한다. 넷플릭스: 실적이 최악이었고 가입자당 가치가 약 380달러 수준으로 7년 만에 가장 싸졌다. 주가가 이미 반토막 난 뒤 한 주 만에 다시 반토막 수준으로 떨어졌으며, 스포티파이 등 구독 서비스 전반에 악영향을 준다고 봤다. 비자(V): 매우 좋은 실적과 강한 카드 성장을 기록했고 러시아 사업 철수에도 불구하고 주가가 6% 이상 급등했다. 강한 실적 종목으로 분류했다. 마이크로소프트(MSFT): 애저 클라우드 실적 부진 보도는 오보로 보고 시간외 급락 후 다음날 약 5% 반등을 언급했다. 게임 부문 약세는 있으나 나머지 사업은 양호하다고 평가했다. 보잉(BA): 사실상 회복 가능성이 낮다고 혹평했다. 중국 인도 건, 안전 문제 등을 거론하며 데이브 칼혼 CEO 교체가 필요할 수 있다는 의견에 공감했다. 보잉 주식은 CEO가 남아 있는 한 더 오르기 어렵다고 봤다. 과거 일부 수익 실현 후 나머지를 보유한 실수를 인정했다. 텍사스 인스트루먼츠(TXN): 실적은 양호했으나 중국 봉쇄로 인한 가이던스 하락으로 주가가 급락했다가, 봉쇄 종료 후 회복 가능성을 근거로 별표 종목으로 보며 장중 반등해 양봉 마감한 점을 언급했다. 알파벳(GOOGL): 유럽 유튜브 광고 부진은 우크라이나 전쟁 탓으로 일시적이라고 보며 별표 종목으로 분류했다. 전쟁이 마무리되면 주가가 다시 주목받을 것으로 전망했다. 메타(META): 매출 미스와 약한 가이던스에도 일일 활성 사용자 수가 예상과 달리 증가해 주가가 약 4% 상승했다. 주당순이익 16센트 상회와 비용 가이던스 30억 달러 하향으로 별표가 느낌표로 바뀐 사례로 들었다. 타깃(TGT): 기록적 매출·이익·성장을 냈으나 주가는 저평가 상태로 보며 긍정적으로 언급했다. 결론적으로 느낌표 종목은 상승 여지가 있고 물음표 종목은 하락 가능성이 크며, 별표 종목 중 실적 후 아직 오르지 않은 종목에서 돈을 벌 기회가 있다고 정리했다.
다듬은 글
queen america i'll be with to call me 1-800-743 cbc or tweet me at jim cramer after a relief day where the dow van 62 points sb inched up 0.21 nasdaq dipped 0.01 all of us by the way much stronger than in the session at various times i think it's worth thinking about why it's been so darn hard to staunch the relentless bleeding in this market yeah now some would say it's the destruction of fang the high-profile growth basket i put together years ago others argue it's the fact that we have so much uncertainty we know the fed will be aggressive with this radix but not how aggressive we know putin will be crazy in ukraine but how crazy and china how long will they continue to lock down rather than accept western vaccines that can end this madness but as a stock picker for my chapel trust which you of course can find out what i'm doing by joining the investing club i've got an entirely different take the chief reason that this market has become so difficult is we finally have not so hot earnings yet wall street's not adopting its usual posture of buying stocks that issue nabith results that's not as bad as feared nabbeth now six months ago you get away with nabafa all the time forgiveness reigned within two or three days not anymore case in point netflix this is one of the worst performing stocks of the year to the point where it's now valued at less than 380 per subscriber the cheapest it's been in seven years going into the quarter netflix had already been cut in half if that decline you might have thought well you know what there's no way the numbers could be as big as fear right i but they were worse than fear hence why the stocks nearly been cut in half again in barely more than a week the stench of netflix has stunk up all subscription services including spotify even though i had an actual growth it's really not as bad severe numbers doesn't matter the stock's down again anyway because we're no longer forgiving it's an unforgiving market of course there are tons of stocks that can rally now that they've come down hard from their highs but we need to figure out what can make those rallies possible what needs to happen for them to rebound and not fall off into the netflix netflix crevasse so i've been searching search and i've come up with a new tripartite system of grading stocks for this moment first we have the exclamation point and that's for good news meaning the stock's entitled to go up despite the broader sell-off this is what we're looking for second well then there is the question mark chess master meaning it's going down pretty much no matter what and then i've got my new favorite that i really love and it's called the asterisk meaning if it would have been a great quarter or more importantly if it weren't for an asterisk right yes just things all the time and then you fill in the blanks if it weren't for x the asterisks might not be doing that well but they've got a good excuse so maybe we'll buy them let me give you a few examples later tonight we have al kelly on the show from visa when they reported last night oh my god the numbers were extraordinary way better than expected tremendous card growth in the u.s as well as the rest of the world the one exception being russia which represented four percent of their business last year they had to walk away from it despite a considerable loss from shutting down russia and i mean considerable visas numbers were so good that the stock surged more than six percent how did they do it you got to stay tuned got al kelly ceo but right now when you think of visa you should think of this next how about microsoft here's a stock that was down hard in after hours trading last night because the news service had an erroneous account that microsoft's azure cloud business failed to meet expectations even though it's growing at a 46 percent clip can you imagine people do this they still trade off this stuff no matter what i do i mean like should i just like give up i'm out of 18 years i'm just gonna just one moment i'm my executive producer how many years have i said don't trade after hours if you don't know what you're talking about 16 years okay good i want to clarify that anyway like visa microsoft had a weakness in the weakness gaming which was down high single digits whoa really scary even though they're buying activision blizzard you could argue gaming indeed has peak but the rest of business is firing on all cylinders that's why microsoft initially being down hard end up jumping nearly 5 today so all right how about yes the ill-fated and we all know this from watching some netflix show that was about chess we don't remember anything from netflix anymore right uh what's the question mark all right well that would be boeing now i don't have the words to express how truly bad boeing is they're the kind of words you can't say on basic cable or maybe even like even on like i don't know dot com let me put it like this if the world had four or five commercial jet makers boeing would be the short of a lifetime but there are only two of them airbus being the other so there's a limit to how awful this business can really get we had a big position in boeing for the travel trust we initially quite a nice rally selling some of that nifty profit but we made the mistake of keeping the rest at this point there's almost nothing going right here i'm just fed up there's a really nice person named jim labenthal who's my friend from scott wabash after report who actually called for ceo dave calhoun's head he mentioned it on a platter like it was alfredo garcia's yes demanding that he'd be fired it was an amazing moment of tv and i have to tell you the litany of excuses is growing too long this time it's probably making air force ones i mean what about harrison ford i don't know still don't though china deal not to mention no dream monitors for sale because of fa safety issues boeing just can't get its act together like labanthal i'm wondering if maybe the stock simply can't go higher as long as calhoun remains as ceo brutal verdict finally there's the area that i find most intriguing the one where i think that we're going to find in the future 2022 the most used and that's companies that get asterisks the earners get an asterisk there's something away from the company that went wrong something you can easily explain away something had nothing to do with the company itself so maybe the stock is worth buying here because it could get forgiven later an asterisk report is subject to interpretation sometimes good sometimes bad depending upon the way it is presented last night we had two asterisk stocks first was texan texas instruments and uh then the second was alphabet which also used to be known as google the first the gigantic semiconductor company reported a not so hot quarter and then gave a very disappointing forecast stock plunged six bucks instantly blink of an eye sat there but those who then bothered to read the release which i did after bowling in 96 not that great and listen to the conference call became convinced that texas instruments actually had a very good quarter it just had a big hole when it came to its chinese clients the lockdown question not themselves this it was actually full of the stars not a caesar so i put an asterisk on it texas would have had a great quarter of china didn't have such a sub-optimal covet strategy which means it should be able to recover once the lockdowns ends well sure enough stock opened down hideously people fleeing like rats on a ship and then people accepted the asterisk around like say 10 30.
and took the stock back up to the point where it actually closed in the black yes of course this is what we have you know what kind of what we have done for you lately markets you're probably saying thanks for nothing jim i didn't get to make any money on texas so listen to me you've got an alphabet asterisk yes this decline off last night's amazing quarter was an absolute travesty everything here was all systems go from search to youtube the booming google cloud business but there was some weakness in the european youtube ad business how do you like it ukrainians and yours who would have thought which is how this became a so-called missed quarter i say this is the sign you should think of when you think of alphabet i mean there's a big war going on in the region so what were they supposed to do what did you expect i think we'll look back and say wait a second that excuse makes sense so once the war runs this course you'd wish you'd done some buying by that point you'll be too late the asterisk will be removed and alphabet stocks will be coveted once again then there's meta platforms the artist formerly known as facebook when they reported after the close the first you might have noticed was a revenue miss like that of google and then the second quarter revenue guidance was a bit light but the market asterisk said what was that all about well guess what they're daily active users many thought they had dropped off a cliff they were up four percent they also beat on the bottom line by 16 cents and cut their full year guidance by uh expense guidance by 3 billion i didn't expect that so what started as kind of you know let's just say an ugly asterisk ended up as a beautiful exclamation point in just a few minutes time here's the bottom line exclamation point yes question mark no asterisk maybe just maybe and that's where the money can be made after the earnings because there are the decent ones that haven't run yet matt missouri matt booyah jimmy chill matt from st louis here long time first time how are you doing today i've been chill lately my daughter told me that the message people all love me i don't need to read them anymore we all love it i know thank you thank you she said they love me the problem is i'm actually reading it upside down how can i help i think i'm around your daughter's ages i love it we love you take it with that yeah april's been a rough month hopefully it may open brighter days yeah i agree with that i wanted to start off saying thanks for all that you do real quick i started reading your books out of college 10 years ago and it helped me very well should i write another book should i read another book i've been debating at my head that's exactly what i was saying a lot has changed over this last decade i got out of college at 13 and boy had time changed i read back and get rich carefully and i look at the times now boys would yeah you need to write one for the next 10 that's exactly what i'm going to do let's make money again let's do it all right jimmy so hey real quick too if you ever make it down to missouri you always gotta spot my duckline i haven't thought about that but it's now on my bucket list what's going on it better be so here's my question but this before this recent broad-based market fell off the stock looked like it was setting up for a big breakout similar to what costco and walmart did this month earlier this month despite the charge this domestic retailer seems to be fundamentally undervalued when compared to its peers it's flown under the radar this year despite posting record revenues record profits and record growth wow record record what's the name all right i'll give it to you real quick it's target oh come on man why do we have to even spend any time on that one that is what i regard as being house of pleasure all right brian cornell rox you know he's from whitestone not by far from the wife she loves it when i call the wife like when i talk about the baconators in the cold world exclamation point yes question mark no asterisk well frankly maybe and that's where the money can be made after the earth supports oh man money tonight mattel reported a race after the bell and i'm getting to the heart of the toy maker's quarter with the ceo then travel is booming and the consumers bending so how about buying visa checking in with the company southwest and from the f-150 lighting to its first quarter results after the bell there's a lot to discuss with ford people are selling it and you know what they don't know what they're doing i'm covering it with the top bass david
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