저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
메타 아동 안전 소송 합의금 약 12.6억달러(최대 18억 가능성)는 메타 주가에 상대적으로 작은 부담이며 시장 반응도 제한적이라고 평가. 엔비디아는 PER 14~15배로 애플 대비 저평가이고, A100 등 구형 GPU도 다양한 작업에 재활용돼 AI 인프라 수명이 길다는 주장. 옵션 전략(풋 캘린더, 풋 버티컬)을 소개하며 엔비디아에 대한 중립~약간 강세 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
If you were to pay now , it would be ridiculous because the legal costs are almost greater. So, sorry. What is the amount? Er, 12.6 billion. Is that all? Does this settle lawsuits with all states? No, it still remains, uh, Florida, because there's a lawsuit going on there , but this is a California case.
A California case that was in court recently. We spoke about this with Rob Bonta, the attorney general, I think, last week. Two weeks...Two weeks of the trial have passed. I thought the process for Meta was going poorly, but it looks like the states are ready for peace. The states... This is a really important point, because the states have unlimited power, and the figure of $1.5 trillion was being thrown around everywhere .
I don't think anyone really knew it would be over 200 billion. But this is a significant amount. Right now Meta...You know, people aren't really interested in Meta stock, and I understand that. It was the worst performance of all, but I would say it was a much better deal than anyone expected. There is a possibility that the number could rise to 18.
Now TikTok is also involved in the case . They have n't reached peace yet. YouTube has not yet settled the case. But the actual costs over a 10-year period are 12.6 billion. This...This... This is trifles. Yes, although some attorneys general said that the issue is not so much about compensation for damages as about methods of correcting the situation.
Do we know anything about this? This could affect...This could affect the Meta percentage because it has to do with how much time kids spend there. And children don't spend much time in Meta. They spend...they sit on Insta and Facebook. They spend more time on YouTube. They spend more time on TikTok.
So for them, it will probably have a bigger impact. The fact that stocks are up only 3% seems strange, because this is probably the biggest existential threat they have faced. And I don't think anyone expected 12.6. So, uh ... Some people thought it would be... So it sounds like a large amount, although compared to what they spend on capital investments , of course not, even in a year, and as you noted, in 10 years.
I'm reading from the court documents: the proposed consensual settlement, which includes a basic settlement agreement, is part of a settlement that they say is substantially fair and reasonable, Jim. They further add that the compensation awarded is substantial and directly relates to the violations complained of by the claimants.
They have entered into a proposed settlement agreement that they say will fully resolve the state law and COPPA claims brought by the plaintiffs. Yes. Now, what's interesting to me is that people can put everything in perspective. They will now have to pay $10 billion in legal costs. They have already reserved three billion for this.
So the legal costs, if assessed at present value , are actually higher than what they owe the states. Wow, their lawyers are going to make $10 billion? Is that what you're telling me? That's what I'm telling you. So, this is the game worth participating in. This is money for a Porsche. This...this is a lot of money.
Yes, it's a lot of money, but you know, look: the fact that the amount is capped, and the maximum it can be—18, but it's probably going to be 12.6 billion, tells me how undervalued the stock is, given its 24% increase. Because there was a chance that they would drastically change their hours , which would significantly hurt their business.
turn it off at night, and all that. There was talk that this was Data Deletion. Right. I mean, for example, the bidding, I didn't check CalSTRS, but I heard people were expecting 200 billion. And things in California are n't going very well for them, so some people were operating with a trillion- dollar figure, but they don't like stocks.
And I think they don't like these stocks because, first of all, they don't have cloud services. Yes. So, they can't depreciate them. Well, right at or near the 350 strike, but this is also a range-bound strategy as you probably have a range between about 330 on the downside and maybe 370–375 on the upside, which could make this trade potentially profitable.
You still need to move downwards, right? From current levels. What you don't want is for the stock to stay above 375 or for it to fall below 330. That's when you start to lose profitability in that case too. As you approach expiration over the next week, you will have the opportunity to roll over this short option by building credit.
And what does it give? Well, it also increases the potential returns when you borrow and reduces the risk for this type of transaction when the rate falls. Now, you only do this if you think the stock will slowly fall to 350, right? So, the example deal that Kevin suggested: you pay a lot for it, 525, but the cost of rolling in-the- money options is quite significant right now, on the put side , if you roll, say, a 375 calendar spread, you get over six and a half dollars on that alone .
So these rolls or potential adjustments that you can make really provide significant support for this type of strategy. So keep that in mind, but a relatively neutral , somewhat bearish put calendar gives you exposure to downside in Palo Alto. Kevin, I took a slightly more passive approach to this and chose a slightly longer expiration date .
I selected monthly options for October 16 with an expiration of 29 days and looked at the charts to apply this neutral-bullish short put- vertical, as the 50- day simple moving average, above which we are again, may become support around $352. So I use that as a guideline for my strategy along with the probability of success, but I sold the 350 put and bought the 340 strike put.
So a short neutral-bullish put vertical with a width of $10 where we get credit at about 260. Probably trading closer to 290 as the stock has come down a bit. If you look at Nvidia today and compare it to some of the biggest names in technology, the valuation becomes very interesting. Nvidia trades at a 14-15 multiple to earnings, while Apple is closer to 35.
Now add in the difference in growth rates. the problem is not the lack of demand, but for AI. So you have a company that is growing at an extraordinary rate, deeply integrated into the AI ecosystem, and it is still trading at values that some analysts consider surprisingly low. For some analysts, this makes Nvidia a much more obvious option tha doesn't get enough attention.
How long will its AI infrastructure remain useful? For some time, investors have been worried that Nvidia's GPUs would become obsolete very quickly. A new architecture emerges and companies buy it. The previous generation is being devalued. And within a few years, old equipment supposedly becomes worthless.
But this assumption may be too simplistic. A cloud infrastructure operator recently provided an important example with the Nvidia A100 GPU. And these GPUs were introduced around 2020. Yet some of this infrastructure has been is i simple. Not every AI task requires the latest GPUs. State-of-the-art equipment can be ideal for training the most advanced basic models.
But older accelerators can still be useful for physical AI, batch computing, enterprise applications, inference, and research. So when a new generation comes along , the old equipment doesn't necessarily disappear. It can simply move on to other tasks. This means that the lifespan of AI infrastructure could be much longer than some investors initially expected.
And if a GPU purchased a year ago continues to generate revenue for several more . Now let's take a look at the deployment of Nvidia's latest infrastructure. The first 100 systems have already begun to arrive at customers. Some early implementations included the NVL-72 configuration. But getting a GPU is only part of the process.
A functioning AI cluster requires GPUs, racks, networks, data center capacity, power, and software. Everything has to work together. And you can't deliver 95 % of the infrastructure and call it done. The entire system must function. And this is where cloud infrastructure providers become extremely important.
They transform individual pieces of equipment into useful computing power for AI companies and businesses. Now demand significantly exceeds supply . Some providers say that virtually every GPU they can get their hands on could be sold to many customers. And that's how unusual this AI situation has become.
Of course, the market eventually responds to scarcity. More data centers are being built and more energy capacity is being connected . More GPUs are being produced , and cloud models are becoming more common.
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