저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 1월 회의 후 3월 금리인하는 기본 시나리오가 아니며 인플레이션 둔화가 정체될 가능성이 크다. 위험자산(주식·정크본드·은행대출)은 과열 상태로 2022년 초 수준에 가깝다. 연준의 높은 실질금리가 경기 성장 위험을 키우고 있으며, 실업률이 낮다는 통계와 달리 주별 실업률 상승, 연속실업수당 증가, 임시고용 감소 등 선행지표는 약화를 보인다. 금리 인하 시점은 언제 어떻게 될지 모른다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
the first fed meeting of the Year officially in the books along with the first news conference of course of chair J pal the question on everyone's mind going in when will the First Rate cut come clearly the chair was non-committal on that he did say in his comments a few moments ago that it will likely be appropriate to begin reducing rates sometime this year that the hiking cycle most likely done the money line of the whole day seems to be that question he got about a March cut in which chair pal said quote probably not the most likely case well stocks didn't like that at all they sold off pretty quickly that's pretty much where they sit now you can see we've got 1% plus declines for the S&P the NASDAQ and the Russell DA has gone negative by about 2/3 of 1% think the bottom line Cuts in play who knows when who knows how many that's probably just the way cherp pal wants it to so on that note let's bring in Jeffrey gunlock he is the CEO CIO and co-founder of double line Capital joins us for our first fed meeting of the Year Jeffrey welcome back what's your assessment of what you just heard well you're right that the money line was we're not cutting in March as a base case and I think that that's going to be the case because we have an inflation model I've talked about this at every after every fed meeting and we knew that inflation was going to come down but for now we think there's going to be a stall in the inflation rate coming down and that will probably mean that the market isn't going to get the gold Goldilocks picture that it was uh euphoric about uh a couple of weeks ago and that is that the fed's cutting it's going to come soon it's going to be quickly it's that's not going to happen so I think risk assets got to a very high level of enthusiasm not just stocks but things like junk bonds bank loans very very high prices relative to where we've been on average over the past uh couple three years in fact a lot of these markets are kind of back to where we were uh at the beginning part of 2022 and so I I think that J Paul did a really good job of being uh candid I would say uh there was a lot of more less hand waving I guess and more statements and the one on March was obviously the big one that tanked the stock market and got the bond market a little bit less enthusiastic although the short end is still uh down significantly in yield so uh on we go to the next meeting and we we we see what happens but the Baseline here is the market can't expect a rate cut uh in the next 2 or 3 months does does March really matter when it comes down to it as long as even the FED share admits they're likely to cut at some point this year it's the trend that matters more than a date isn't that correct that is correct but the market really not very long ago was was pricing in March pretty heavily and that got led to very high valuations on a lot of risk markets and the longer that the FED stays at what is going to be about a two or 300 basis point real interest rate on fed funds there's risk uh to economic growth that's going to build as we move uh into this year you know everybody knows that the employment Market on the headline establishment survey looks really good but there were a lot of downward revisions uh in the last employment report and the household survey isn't a wrong and there's also data that never gets reported to the extent it should be which is unemployment data that's reported on a state level the states do this too and they have 51 states I think they have DC in there as one as as if it's its own State and something like 85 or more percent of those 51 uh state reports have Rising unemployment over the last 6 months so there's a strange mathematical inconsistency that the unemployment rate stays at 3.6 s on the national house uh establishment survey but over 85% of States uh report that unemployment is rising over the past 6 months it almost doesn't seem possible now the states that uh are uh not reporting Rising unemployment are Wyoming North Dakota yes Texas I think Pennsylvania but not California not Illinois not Florida not New York so I I don't know is is unemployment really as low as as uh we we think with continuing claims are rising that's a leading indicator temporary employment is falling that's a leading indicator and the quits rate is now in every sector about the same as it was pre pandemic so this this Narrative of there's there's nobody quitting is just false it's it's all the way back to where we were pre pandemic
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