The Fed isn't going to cut rates as aggressively as the market thinks, says Mohamed El-Erian

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연준은 시장이 기대하는 것만큼 공격적으로 금리를 인하하지 않을 것이며, 인플레이션 둔화에도 옵션을 열어둘 가능성이 크다. 미국 경제는 예외적으로 견조하고, 유동성(flow)은 우호적이나 누적된 긴축의 지연효과·상업용 부동산·2025년 회사채 만기 벽 등 스톡 측면의 부담이 남아 있다. 시장이 조기 공격적 인하를 가정하면 전망은 훨씬 밝아지지만, 그 베팅은 연준 인하에 의존한다.

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01. let's bring in Muhammad L chief economic advisor at Alan and president of Queen college at Cambridge University uh Muhammad uh I know you heard we were talking about there I'd love though your take bigger picture I mean as the federal official Federal Reserve officials get together today they have to be feeling pretty good in general I mean the economy is holding up better than they had anticipated inflation has come down even a bit faster than they projected and even if we're talking about when they might start rate Cuts it's in the guise of normalization and and it's not an emergency so how are you thinking about their job this week so you're absolutely right they're going to welcome the reduction in inflation they're going to take a lot of comfort from the fact that it didn't come at the cost of growth the US economy has been exceptional and the Euro Zone data today reminded us of this us exceptionalism they're also going to say that their job is not done and they're going to maintain optionality um and most importantly I think they are not going to validate the notion that weights are coming down in March they're going to keep the the options wide open that's where they're going to end up that's the committee what's interesting is what the chair is going to do during the press conference because we've seen in the past the chair does sometimes diverge from the committee um so it be really important to listen very carefully to what the chair says for sure muhamad although do think that the market I mean to the degree to which we want to you know make something out of this uh perceived gap between how the market is positioned about rate cuts and and what the FED has been saying I mean if you just stack up all the things we know about how the FED has said it will respond uh you know you have a five and 38 fed funds rate right now inflation is way below that they've talked about how that represents a restrictive policy even if we're not really seeing it in the economy uh you know we've had this six month month average a lot of people are seizing on of of core inflation uh being very close to Target and so all those things put together and you know pal has said yeah of course we're going to be cutting before we get to Target so I I guess the question is um just exactly how much work do you think he'll he'll even try to do to to talk the market in a different direction it's hard to tell predicting him um even within the same press conference It's Tricky so so it's it's hard to tell but you're absolutely right they have the scope to cut rates I don't think it's going to be as as aggressive as the market thinks I'm exactly where the consensus is in the survey that Steve shared with us um why is that important yes we all end up at the same destination 2025 but remember we've become a single issue Market our focus on the fed and our focus on the FED loosening liquidity conditions has allowed us to sideline all sorts of other issues including geopolitical risk so where this comes in is is can we continue to rely on our Focus solely on the FED to sideline all these other issues that are mounting on the sideline you know I don't are we really a single issue though in terms of the pacing of the Fed rate Cuts because uh you know we were at I don't know close to 90% for a March rate cut right after after the the previous pal press conference we're down to a 50/50 risk markets have done well since then the economy hasn't missed a beat in fact if anything we're getting the impression that the economy has been a lot more resistant to higher rates I mean look investment grade yields have they've had their effect they're above 5% they were nothing a while ago you would think this would start to bite but it's not really doing it just yet right and there's this big debate Mike Flow versus stock if you focus on the flow then you would be incredibly optimistic about both the economy and the markets inflation is coming down interest rates are coming down affordability for consumers is going up corporates can refinance much more easily ample liquidity the Flow side is really encouraging we just have to manage the stock and the stock is first the lagged effect of the rate hikes second the fact that you have certain asset classes that are slower moving in acknowledging that change circumstances think of commercial real estate as one but as others and then third we have a maturity wall um coming up on the corporate side so what we're going to see this year is this tug-of war between favorable flows and challenging stock and and that's how it's it's going to work out now if if you can bet on the FED accommodating the situation which is what the market is saying the market is saying they're going to cut early a aggressively so we're going to be able to deal with the stock if you can bet on that then your outlook becomes much more positive than otherwise