The Fed should hold off on any easing at all, says Ed Yardeni

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S&P500 강세장이 2022년 10월 저점 이후 지속된다고 보며 실적은 양호할 것으로 전망. 중동 리스크 속에서도 유가 공급이 충분하다고 평가하며 과도한 조정은 필요하나 실적은 괜찮다고 봄. 연준은 금리 인하를 서두를 필요 없고 현 상태 유지가 바람직하다고 주장(인하 시 1990년식 과열 우려). 대형 기술주 중심 장세는 종목별로 차별화되고 있으며, 소형·중형주가 저평가 상태로 유망하다고 언급. 선호 섹터는 기술·금융, 중동 헤지 차원에서 에너지 비중 확대.

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01. okay let's talk more about the markets right now as we get set for a big week of earnings joining us right now is Ed yord Denny he's the president of Y Denny research good morning to you we've been um debating what the fed's going to do we've also been debating how some of these earnings are going to turn out though I think people are a little more optimistic than they had been two weeks ago where are you uh well I've been consistently optimistic actually about this bull market that started uh October 27th of uh 2022 so so far so good I think we're getting a little bit stretched uh need need to have some consolidation but earnings I think are going to be fine especially for the uh equality names that uh Mike just went through and uh at the same time we've got uh some other issues that are becoming maybe more relevant and that's the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uh of course the FED has to deal with these issues just the way investors do so given your optimism layer on the Middle East it seems seems like the market is taking it all in stride should it be yeah I think that's absolutely correct I keep watching the price of oil and um it has come up somewhat uh but there must be a tremendous amount of oil out there available through all sorts of different channels at the same time it's important to realize that um this notion that the US had to have a recession to bring inflation down turns out to be incorrect what really happened is China has had a recession a property Le recession and Europe's been in a recession so the demand for oil has been weak and and so that's offset some of these mid Middle Eastern concerns when you think about what the FED is going to do H how important is your optimistic take to the idea that the FED is going to cut and cut potentially in March is March too early yeah I think I'm a contrarian on on this issue the markets have been expecting four five six maybe seven Cuts this year and sooner rather than later I think the markets backed off a bit on that uh uh but I actually would like the FED to hold off uh easing at all I think the FED has actually not only tightened but actually normalized interest rates are back to where they were before the great financial crisis uh investors are finally getting an appropriate return in the money markets and in the bond market and the economy has demonstrated that it's resilient and it can live with them so I I'd like to say you know you discuss Capital markets in a previous report here I'd like to see the capital markets work more efficiently and let the Market determine where where Capital should go so you think you just leave them leave them as is and the market will still still still go up at this point well I think if you leave him as is and it's clear that one of the reasons for that is because the economy is doing well and earnings are coming coming in strong then I think it's it's a good tradeoff um but I don't think there's any rush for the FED to ease right away here they got the uh the risk of the Middle East creating a 1970 scenario to two energy shots and then if they ease and become too dovish they'll get a 1990 scenario which is irrational exuberance so uh I I think the smartest course for them to avoid these kind of risks on the tail risks is to in fact uh do nothing I'm I'm loathed to ask it because it's just a cliche of a question at this point but are the Magnificent sevens still magnificent uh some yes some not so much it's starting to be a little bit uh uh of a more specific story uh for each individual stock Tesla has obviously some some issues right now um but um maybe it's not seven anymore so what what is it and and what would you buy and what wouldn't you touch well we did see a nice uh rebound since uh late October of last year in the small cap and midcap stocks which made a great deal of sense to me because these are really cheap stocks compared to the S&P 5 100 um and there are lots of good small and midsize companies that should do well in an environment where for the third year in a row we're not going to have a a recession as has been widely anticipated so I think that's a good area to be I would stick with technology I would stick with financials I think energy has to be overweighted as a hedge against the Middle East uh craziness